#245 Postby msbee » Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:53 am
I just received this update from Crown Weather:
Tropical Depression #9:
5 am EDT/4 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 14.3 North Latitude, 35.4 West Longitude or about 1720 miles to the east of the Windward Islands.
Maximum Winds: 35 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 Millibars or 29.74 Inches.
Forward Movement: West-Northwest at a forward speed of 5 mph.
The forecast for Tropical Depression #9 is a very uncertain one and all interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Satellite imagery and weather analysis indicates that TD 9 is being impacted by fairly robust wind shear and these unfavorable environmental conditions may continue for at least a few days. Should this occur, then the depression will struggle to strengthen and we may have a much weaker system moving into the Caribbean. This is what the latest European model and GFS model seems to suggest.
On the other hand, analysis reveals that there is an area of lower wind shear situated between 50 and 60 West Longitude and this system is likely to move through this region by about Wednesday. What may happen is that we could see a quick burst of intensification just before TD 9 moves across the Lesser Antilles late next week and this is something that will need to be monitored.
The intensity guidance is of no help with some members peaking this at a tropical storm while a equal number of members forecast a peak intensity of a Category 1 hurricane. The HWRF model's forecast of a Category 4 hurricane looks like a outlier and will be disregarded.
Tropical Depression 9 should move on a general west to west-northwest path for the next several days as a upper level ridge of high pressure pushes the system westward.
My Thinking Is That this system will end up tracking right across the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands on Thursday as a tropical storm. The islands that really need to keep an eye on this storm include Antigua, Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique. It should be noted that even though I'm currently forecasting this system to move across the central Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm, there is the very real possibility that it could be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane at that time.
Bottom line is that I strongly advise everyone in the southern Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands to closely monitor the progress of Tropical Depression #9.
from Rob at Crown Weather
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Too many hurricanes to remember
I know it wasn't in September but hurricane Dennis entered the far south Caribbean near Grenada and still made landfall as a cat 3 in the panhandle
waouw here we are.
