ATL: ISAAC - Models

[NDG]

Latest CMC doesn't turn it away before impacting the islands. It has it scraping them, then heading out to sea.

http://i64.tinypic.com/34ig28z.png

The CMC has gone from bad to really really bad as the season has gone, why even bother with it.

I know but I don't want to be accused of model bias.

Did you see the NW Caribbean potential system? Just got a message from our service talking about it. They say 20% chance of it getting to a depression.

Yeah, that's the disturbance the GFS and Euro were developing a few days ago but then dropped it.

[gatorcane]

JMA has this turning north into the Bahamas after weakening some moving over Haiti:

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF and GFS still basically kills this in the Caribbean graveyard.

[SoupBone]

12z ECMWF and GFS still basically kills this in the Caribbean graveyard.

Basically, there are a few schools of model thought right now:

Euro, GFS, and FV3-GFS - Minimal hurricane over the islands, then kill it in Honduras/Nicaragua. This has been their solutions for a few days now.

CMC & HWRF - Now have it hitting the islands with a pretty potent system, then turning out to sea

UKMET - Turning out to sea before hitting the islands.


I honestly haven't been watching the other models.

[1900hurricane]

I'm not saying guidance is wrong by any means, but a small system below 20ºN can give some of the models (particularly the ECMWF) fits at times. Many of the current solutions show dissipation somewhere in the Caribbean, but I won't feel totally at ease until that time frame moves closer and things become more apparent.

[blp]

I'm not saying guidance is wrong by any means, but a small system below 20ºN can give some of the models (particularly the ECMWF) fits at times. Many of the current solutions show dissipation somewhere in the Caribbean, but I won't feel totally at ease until that time frame moves closer and things become more apparent.

Agreed. I don't think that forecast is settled by no means. I noticed the Euro is stronger at 120hrs than the previous forecast. If it maintains it's core then the intensity forecast is a crapshoot.

[SoupBone]

[Nolachick504]

Hi All!
Is there any chance of Isaac getting into the GOM. We New Orleanians stay on pins and needles during hurricane season after Hurricane Katrina!

[GeneratorPower]

Hi All!
Is there any chance of Isaac getting into the GOM. We New Orleanians stay on pins and needles during hurricane season after Hurricane Katrina!

Sure there is a chance. But it’s nowhere near known yet.

[AtlanticWind]

Isaac stronger on this GFS run

[SoupBone]

Last GFS run vs the current one.

[HurricaneEric]

Question for the pro-Mets or anyone who knows: Wouldn’t Issac feel the weakness left by Florence and pull North out of the Caribbean in this position? Or is it too far south? In that case, what’s steering it west?




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[SoupBone]

Question for the pro-Mets or anyone who knows: Wouldn’t Issac feel the weakness left by Florence and pull North out of the Caribbean in this position? Or is it too far south? In that case, what’s steering it west?

NDG and I were talking about that earlier. From NDG - "The almost due west motion across the Caribbean is also due to the models showing it to weakening and getting caught in the low level easterlies across the Caribbean".

Also, the models are showing a high pressure piece sitting right on top the Cuba, not allowing it to gain latitude.

Some models do show it curving as it scrapes the islands, then heading out to sea (CMC, HWRF, and UKMET).

[CrazyC83]

Question for the pro-Mets or anyone who knows: Wouldn’t Issac feel the weakness left by Florence and pull North out of the Caribbean in this position? Or is it too far south? In that case, what’s steering it west?




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Isaac will likely be much shallower than Florence at that point, so it wouldn't feel an upper-level feature. That said, a much stronger and deeper Isaac could feel it.

[SoupBone]

So a huge change from previous GFS runs is that the open wave (Isaac) gains latitude and heads towards the Yucatan, instead of burying itself in Honduras. If you play the model run, you can see it heading in that direction after clipping Jamaica.

[Blinhart]

So a huge change from previous GFS runs is that the open wave (Isaac) gains latitude and heads towards the Yucatan, instead of burying itself in Honduras. If you play the model run, you can see it heading in that direction after clipping Jamaica.

So more like Harvey.

[supercane4867]

CAT4 on18z HWRF

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z HWRF is just cruel.... really hoping nothing that extreme happens.

[CrazyC83]

18z HWRF is just cruel.... really hoping nothing that extreme happens.

IMO it is not unreasonable, and 942 would likely be a strong cat 4 or near cat 5 given the tiny size.

[cycloneye]

What does HWRF see as very favorable to be that strong?