ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HeeBGBz]

Is this the first recon for this storm?

[Aric Dunn]

you can clearly see one vort over land still moving S. and you can start to see the other vort rotating around now as the high clouds thin..

does not mean its not a TS. just saying the models all showed this.

bottom left over land you can see one vort.

[cycloneye]

[ozonepete]

you can clearly see one vort over land still moving S. and you can start to see the other vort rotating around now as the high clouds thin..

does not mean its not a TS. just saying the models all showed this.

bottom left over land you can see one vort.

https://image.ibb.co/gtPAuU/image.gif

The vort over land looks like it's getting stretched west to east and shifting east or east-northeastward. Would think the other one will take over pretty quickly now.

[ozonepete]

Vort that was over land I should say.

[Aric Dunn]

you can clearly see one vort over land still moving S. and you can start to see the other vort rotating around now as the high clouds thin..

does not mean its not a TS. just saying the models all showed this.

bottom left over land you can see one vort.

https://image.ibb.co/gtPAuU/image.gif

The vort over land looks like it's getting stretched west to east and shifting east or east-northeastward. Would think the other one will take over pretty quickly now.

Yeah would normally be the case. the east vort is now exposed so either convection builds with it soon or the deep convection to the east will just produce yet another vort. Either way as shear relaxes in the next 12 hours we should see the convective mass rotate and swing around to the nw side of the llc as the whole system conserves momentum

[gatorcane]

Looks like the center might be forming on the edge of the convection east of where the NHC has it:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[cycloneye]

[Abdullah]

LLC doesn't appear to very well-defined. There's a broad circulation. Center may reform a bit east. That may not affect the final landfall point near Panama City, though. Could move inland as far east as Apalachicola. Going with 85 kts (Cat 2) on the next advisory. Could be stronger. A rare case where the NHC may be a little too conservative with the wind forecast.

Happening very often, now. Doesn't the NHC never ever forecast a storm to be a Category 5 or Major Hurricane had they not reached that status in the past?

I wouldnt be surprised if the center has been pulled a little east under that convection thats blossoming like crazy.

That's what I was thinking, it has that "look" of a storm that's ready to take off soon.

Has the look of a future major hurricane

Has the name of one as well.

[stormhunter7]

anyone see anything wrong with this picture?

[Ubuntwo]

http://i65.tinypic.com/1zp6s05.jpg

anyone see anything wrong with this picture?

Forms in gulf? hmm

[Aric Dunn]

now that the high clouds are thinning. can see the low level structure a little better. there could already be another circ developing or has already near the edge of the convection.

you can also see in the loop the circ where recon had the last VDM has really elongated out as well which means there is likely another more dominate circ somewhere to the ene or NE of the VDM location.

[cycloneye]

Aric,they are going that way.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1049015893982945281

[ozonepete]

now that the high clouds are thinning. can see the low level structure a little better. there could already be another circ developing or has already near the edge of the convection.

you can also see in the loop the circ where recon had the last VDM has really elongated out as well which means there is likely another more dominate circ somewhere to the ene or NE of the VDM location.

https://image.ibb.co/iDzMJp/Capture.gif

https://image.ibb.co/eEVdyp/image.gif

Your analysis is exactly right imho.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the possible new LLC is moving in the general direction of the Western tip of Cuba that Aric circled above.

[GCANE]

RAMMB Slider
On Sector = Mesoscale 1
has 1 min Rapid Scan

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... 000&y=1000

[Bucman]

Aric- in the Tampa area , what might a new vort to the NE do to the track? What effects might that cause in The Tampa Bay Area?

[ozonepete]

Looks like the possible new LLC is moving in the general direction of the Western tip of Cuba that Aric circled above.

I'd be paying very close attention if I lived anywhere on the western Florida coast, not just the panhandle, if the coc consolidates that far east and crosses western Cuba.

[cycloneye]

Here it goes.