ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[USTropics]

For those using GRLEVELX, Radarscope, etc. KEVX (Eglin AFB) radar now has the center in view. I'll post loops throughout the night/morning:

[kthmcc7319]

Salute!

Does someone have a good close view of the NHC track? The one they have is not at a good scale. The three models they reference shows inpact by Mexico Beach and Port St Joe. That also agrees with my hand plot using NHC positions and times.

So that's on the other side of PC not on the Destin side.

For easy tracking from Destin to the storm, remember that Destin is 30.4 86.5, or about 6 miles due south of me in Niceville. The NHC track shows Mike turning more sharply when it is about 100 miles or so south of us.@ 0700 local. Each degree is 60 nautical miles, or about 68 - 69 st miles.

Finally, Opal ( near Cat 5 about 4 or 5 hours from impact) and Katrina ( a real Cat 5) both weakened quite a bit, so this dude would really break the mold if it stays a weak 4.

Gums sends....

I like this interactive map on the NHC website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... k#contents

[NWFL56]

Panama City Beach is in serious trouble. Sustained cat 4 winds with condo high rises is going to be an ugly sight. I hope no one is vertically evacuating there. With the daytime landfall we are going to be seeing unbelievable footage.

This is an excellent point and something that is going to be extremely riveting to watch. The Panama City Beach webcams are really going to be just incredible to watch landfall. Niw this is provided as long as they are up running. I am just terrified for the region with this monster coming ashore.

Godspeed to everyone out there . i pray everyone got out if harm's way!! I have family out there myself and i talked to them to urge them to head northwest.

I tried too. Some just wouldn't budge. I hope I don't lose some friends.

[MississippiWx]

Recon again recorded 125kt flight level winds in the SE quad. Would be nice to see the NE quad...

[pricetag56]

Could someone post recent IR and microwave imagery on the storm? Please and thank you.

[Hammy]

Recon again recorded 125kt flight level winds in the SE quad. Would be nice to see the NE quad...

What's up with the flight path? It almost seems they're avoiding the NE quad.

[MississippiWx]

Recon again recorded 125kt flight level winds in the SE quad. Would be nice to see the NE quad...

What's up with the flight path? It almost seems they're avoiding the NE quad.

It has definitely been an unconventional flight. Seems like they are trying to get one last center fix and possibly a pass through the NE quad before returning home.

[CrazyC83]

Recon again recorded 125kt flight level winds in the SE quad. Would be nice to see the NE quad...

What's up with the flight path? It almost seems they're avoiding the NE quad.

It has definitely been an unconventional flight. Seems like they are trying to get one last center fix and possibly a pass through the NE quad before returning home.

It seems the pressure right now is 944mb. Not sure if there is enough confidence to go up to 115 kt.

[tolakram]

[tropicwatch]

The Weather Channel is having continuous coverage right now.

Local channels in Panama City are at full coverage mode.

[MississippiWx]

What's up with the flight path? It almost seems they're avoiding the NE quad.

It has definitely been an unconventional flight. Seems like they are trying to get one last center fix and possibly a pass through the NE quad before returning home.

.

It seems the pressure right now is 944mb. Not sure if there is enough confidence to go up to 115 kt.

They just sampled the eastern eye wall and recorded 135kt flight level winds. Still not the NE quad. I think it’s Cat. 4. They still never sampled the true center either. No clue what they are doing.

[pcolaman]

Ok guys , been watch for a few hours on the Goes 16 sat and I know this storm is supposed to be heading north but looking at both sat and radar it sure does look as if the storm is still moving towards the nnw more that the north. So given that into account, I would think that this will cause the track to adjust to the west some distance . Taking into a fact that the storm is moving at 12 mph and its still heading to the nnw. that would move landfall in the westerly direction about 40 miles or so. With that given , it would make landfall closer to the Fort Walton beach area. About40 miles to the west of Panama City. Could the fact that the front hasn't made it close enough toward the storm cause more of a northerly track? Just thinking out loud ..

[USTropics]

Could someone post recent IR and microwave imagery on the storm? Please and thank you.

[MississippiWx]

Ok guys , been watch for a few hours on the Goes 16 sat and I know this storm is supposed to be heading north but looking at both sat and radar it sure does look as if the storm is still moving towards the nnw more that the north. So given that into account, I would think that this will cause the track to adjust to the west some distance . Taking into a fact that the storm is moving at 12 mph and its still heading to the nnw. that would move landfall in the westerly direction about 40 miles or so. With that given , it would make landfall closer to the Fort Walton beach area. About40 miles to the west of Panama City. Could the fact that the front hasn't made it close enough toward the storm cause more of a northerly track? Just thinking out loud ..

There is still a west movement in the overall motion. Probably has to do with the massive area of convection on the western half. Pensacola isn’t going to receive a direct hit, but it might have a little more impacts if the west trend continues.

[craptacular]

Yeah, recon is all over the place around the center. Since they ended the last set going straight west, I'm guessing they'll make one more 180 and come back for a final shot. They have to go back out the east side to get back home to Lakeland anyway. The next recon flight (mission 13) just broadcast their first obs from Keesler, by the way. They were still on the ground, but should be leaving shortly.

[pricetag56]

It has definitely been an unconventional flight. Seems like they are trying to get one last center fix and possibly a pass through the NE quad before returning home.

.

It seems the pressure right now is 944mb. Not sure if there is enough confidence to go up to 115 kt.

They just sampled the eastern eye wall and recorded 135kt flight level winds. Still not the NE quad. I think it’s Cat. 4. They still never sampled the true center either. No clue what they are doing.

That's bizarre? Well if anything it is definitely a 4 now! Maybe they are afraid?

[PavelGaborik10]

Man, would seriously love a NE quad pass right about now.

[pricetag56]

Could someone post recent IR and microwave imagery on the storm? Please and thank you.

https://i.imgur.com/CLCJFAD.gif
https://i.imgur.com/jw0CRS1.jpg

Thanks bud that eyewall looks devastating the key will be if it holds up until landfall

[kthmcc7319]

Where’s the turn?
(Nervous in Niceville)

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... flanim.gif

[CrazyC83]

Could someone post recent IR and microwave imagery on the storm? Please and thank you.

https://i.imgur.com/CLCJFAD.gif
https://i.imgur.com/jw0CRS1.jpg

Thanks bud that eyewall looks devastating the key will be if it holds up until landfall

Or if it fully closes (it's still a bit ragged in the SW quad, only partially closed).