ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

I think this is peak because the continental air has gotten wrapped...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Just for the record, I concur.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Y'all aren't looking at the same satellite loops as me. -80 to -90C clouds are again beginning to circle the CDO. Looks like a new burst of intensification as the eye continues to warm.

[Cyclenall]

I just heard that if Michael makes landfall as a Cat 4 it will be the first time ever a Cat 4 makes landfall along the Panhandle.

This is a signal that its probably not going to be a CAT4 windspeed wise when it makes it onshore. However it will be a CAT4 for all other aspects of a hurricane's impact.

Normally I would agree, but it's already at the point when most storms in the Gulf begin to weaken, but all signs right now point to continued weakening. On top of that, the convection is unusually intense for this part of the basin, which will likely help fuel higher windspeeds, and it's moving fairly quickly, which won't give it a lot of time to weaken. I could see it peaking like 3 or 4 hours before landfall, maybe, but I think any weakening will be modest at best. The conditions are there for this to strengthen right up until landfall moreso than other storms in this area I think.

Hurricane Katrina was a strong CAT5 at roughly the same timeframe as when Michael is at his current intensity to LF. Some believe Katrina was a CAT2 at its destination but I don't agree with that - however such a decrease in winds is very possible and is why I never believe it until 2 hours before landfall. This has been the case for virtually every non-small hurricane to date. I'm even more unconvinced with the way the eyewall is with its lopsided convection.

Cyclenall,

It's easy to "bet the farm on it," when you are in Ontario, Canada!!!!
Thank God you are here to reassure the people on the Florida Panhandle...
Hopefully you are right and you can put a feather in your cap for being "right" that the NHC is simply overwarning for no reason...

What am I reassuring them of? I'm in the camp of anyone living near the hurricane's LF forecast needs to evacuate immediately for this very devastating hurricane. Separate impact from forecast landfall windspeeds.

Yea, this is officially horrifying. I could see a landfall intensity of around 150-160mph.

Looks like Camille in that shot.

[BobHarlem]

Surge in clearwater beach

 https://twitter.com/PutnamSevereWx/status/1049866720268103681

[USTropics]

To be more specific about what the lightning indicates from a meteorological perspective, it usually correlates to a high burst of vertical wind churning (up/down drafts) that creates this electrical field. In very intense hurricanes in this region (Hurricane Emily, Hurricane Rita and Hurricane Katrina all had extensive lightning and thunder) this can be a huge issue for recon. We're starting to see that in Michael tonight.

NASA did a study after the 2005 season with more details on this:
https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/s ... hurricanes

[ConvergenceZone]

It has a few more hours to strengthen. We will see if it will. Part of me thinks it hit its peak at 125mph, but I won't be surprised at all if it goes to the predicted 130 mph prior to leveling off. We will see....

[PTPatrick]

Looks we know it’s a dang strong storm right now and technically anything could happen. We also know we have been here before staring down the barrel of a major cat 3 bordering cat 4 in the gulf in October, only for the continental air to hit it and save the day.

My gut feeling is that this doesn’t make it to 4 given ongoing structural issues but that doesn’t mean that it’s to be toyed with. Stasis to some possibly light weakening is possible up until landfall. Opal hit the same area just a bit west this same time of year and while it did weaken some from it was still a very bad hit. I think that’s a good analogy for what might happen here.

I don’t see this pulling a Lilli and dropping down 3 categories near the coast though

[Blizzard96x]

Yeah... not good IMO



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[utweather]

He's edging to the north and west of the latest plot and it does look like he's still got some west motion. I'd expect some flattening of the western periphery if he was feeling the front but I still don't see it. The front extends from the TX coast to NW MS now so you'd think it wouldn't be too much longer.

Looking at a wind map I see the front farther back in west central Texas to central Oklahoma instead. Is my map wrong?

Looked at another map both look the same to me. I cant tell how fast its moving but it seems slow so that would mean it's not gonna affect hurricane for a while. Correct?

[Highteeld]

some sort of tomfoolery is going on in the eastern portion of this storm!

[hurricaneCW]

I don't see anything that tells me this will collapse or weaken substantially before landfall.

I also don't see any "continental effects" on it. The fact that it's been producing very cold cloud tops throughout its lifespan and strengthened in the face of 20+ knots of shear is a good indicator that he'll hold up just fine.

120-130mph LF remains the most likely solution.

[USTropics]

He's edging to the north and west of the latest plot and it does look like he's still got some west motion. I'd expect some flattening of the western periphery if he was feeling the front but I still don't see it. The front extends from the TX coast to NW MS now so you'd think it wouldn't be too much longer.

Looking at a wind map I see the front farther back in west central Texas to central Oklahoma instead. Is my map wrong?

Looked at another map both look the same to me. I cant tell how fast its moving but it seems slow so that would mean it's not gonna affect hurricane for a while. Correct?

You can follow the trough on UL Water Vapor images. I've roughly highlighted the edge here in pink:

[craptacular]

So NOAA2 looks like they are taking the long way back to Lakeland. AF306 was supposed to take off 30 minutes ago, and they broadcast a set of obs from the ground at Biloxi almost an hour ago, but nothing has been posted since then. Wonder if they actually haven't left yet or if there are just communication issues.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't see anything that tells me this will collapse or weaken substantially before landfall.

I also don't see any "continental effects" on it. The fact that it's been producing very cold cloud tops throughout its lifespan and strengthened in the face of 20+ knots of shear is a good indicator that he'll hold up just fine.

120-130mph LF remains the most likely solution.

Agreed, and even though the right side doesn't look quite as good as it did earlier, I don't think it's slight change in appearance is enough to really weaken it anyway... While it might have "potentially" peaked, I agree with what others have said in that, whether it's a strong cat 3 or a minimal cat 4, won't make much of a difference in damage.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like it's finally begun the NNE or NE motion.

[ScottNAtlanta]

So NOAA2 looks like they are taking the long way back to Lakeland. AF306 was supposed to take off 30 minutes ago, and they broadcast a set of obs from the ground at Biloxi almost an hour ago, but nothing has been posted since then. Wonder if they actually haven't left yet or if there are just communication issues.

Still shows it sitting in Biloxi on GE

[Christiana]

To anyone in the targeted landfall zone still trying to decide whether or not to evacuate:
There are a lot of references to weakening systems before landfall, but as other posters have pointed out, that doesn't always negate catastrophic results. No one should EVER think it is a good idea to not evacuate when advised to. A weakening Katrina still managed to push in the highest recorded storm surge domestically to date at 29 feet, wipe entire towns along the MS Coast off the map, and kill nearly 2000 people in this region, most of those deaths the result of drowning in storm surge. If in doubt, don't be, please get to a place of safety.

[Highteeld]

NE side looking very healthy again

[bob rulz]

Hurricane Katrina was a strong CAT5 at roughly the same timeframe as when Michael is at his current intensity to LF. Some believe Katrina was a CAT2 at its destination but I don't agree with that - however such a decrease in winds is very possible and is why I never believe it until 2 hours before landfall. This has been the case for virtually every non-small hurricane to date. I'm even more unconvinced with the way the eyewall is with its lopsided convection.

Did I say weakening? I meant strengthening! Woops! There's no sign this is weakening whatsoever, and no obvious indicators that it will weaken before landfall. All signs point to continued strengthening.

[bob rulz]

Also I do not see this leveling off in intensity a couple of people have said.

[USTropics]

Looking at a wind map I see the front farther back in west central Texas to central Oklahoma instead. Is my map wrong?

Looked at another map both look the same to me. I cant tell how fast its moving but it seems slow so that would mean it's not gonna affect hurricane for a while. Correct?

You can follow the trough on UL Water Vapor images. I've roughly highlighted the edge here in pink:

Also keep in mind the trough is acting to erode the ridge that is currently blocking Michael from wanting to naturally go poleward. It does not need to be positioned directly to the north to turn Michael east, it just needs to sufficiently erode the periphery of the high pressure. The SW flow as the trough approaches will kick Michael more NE.