ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[PTrackerLA]

Through 120 hrs 18z GFS is a bit west of the 12z but closer to the 06z. Looks like an outer banks scraper as it's turning north at 120

[Blown Away]

Do we know if the 18z GFS has some of the new data ingested?

00z Suite will have them.

P3 has been out there all afternoon. likely some data is in the 18z gfs.

It seems over the past few years the anticipated recon data seems to have no noticeable effect on these models.

[supercane4867]

18z GFS has CAT5 landfall on NC Outer Banks

[SeaBrz_FL]

Anyone able to confirm new data about environment made it into 18z model runs?

I sincerely hope you are prepared and not waiting until you can be "sure" because when you can be sure everyone else will be out there doing last minute preps as well. /scold

I am getting up early tomorrow and getting gas (I live on the outskirts of Wilmington across the Cape Fear to the SW). I have water and I always keep plenty of can food. I have plenty of supplies and have a place to ride it out in my hometown of Fayetteville, NC. I am just wondering if I will need to get more gas and water.

Get them -- neither will go to waste. Also, do all of your laundry over the next day or so. After 50 years on the FL east coast, I thought I was an expert on hurricane prep, but it sucked last year post-Irma by not having a washer or dryer during the 9-day power outage. Nothing would dry outside because of the high humidity and people without A/C go thru a LOT of stinkin' clothes

Very best of luck to you if this does end up on your doorstep. Many of us know firsthand what you are facing and will be thinking about you and your area.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS has shifted west again.

still stalling stronger ridging..

[Aric Dunn]

well with that track there wont be any outerbanks left.. 2 days of cat4 lol

[tolakram]

[meriland29]

GFS slightly left at 132 than last run. Definitely more NNW movement than N movement

[drewschmaltz]

I'm afraid of what hr 132-150++++ is going to look like on the GFS... It's so much more rain than Floyd's 15 inches. The bad thing is, I could see something like this verifying.

[tolakram]

[supercane4867]

GFS breaks down ridging after day 5 that Flo just lost all steerings and has nowhere to go.

[tolakram]

Trend

[Steve]

Stall and lift out or stall and loop... stuck at 138. Water has to be piling into the VA Coast and inlets. Coming up at 924 and sitting there at 927. That’s brutal.

[PTrackerLA]

Good grief it's really stalling right next to the outer banks up to 150hrs. While this track would spare most of NC the outer banks would literally be wiped out.

[tolakram]

[supercane4867]

Now it starts to drifting SW...LOL

[Steve]

Here is the GFS at 500mb. Ridge isn’t budging yet. Signaling a prolonged event with an onshore flow. Points north into VA/MD and DE look to be imperiled.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 818&fh=150

[Aric Dunn]

Here is the GFS at 500mb. Ridge isn’t budging yet. Signaling a prolonged event with an onshore flow. Points north into VA/MD and DE look to be imperiled.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 818&fh=150

which = poppycock.

[PTrackerLA]

It's comical how little weakening is shown by the GFS. That close to shore plus stalled for 2 days and it's still at 941mb .

[TheDreamTraveler]

It should be said too that Florence will not stay that strong for that long off the coast if it barely moves due to the water upwelling. It'll start to weaken pretty fast.