ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

Looks like recon could be turning to sample the NE quad. Not sure, but they didn't keep flying straight.

139kt flight level winds in SE quad!!

Since the NE quad has not been sampled and winds are likely stronger there, I would go with 115-120 kt.

Yeah, I think Michael is stronger than the 1AM update.

[pcolaman]

Cat 4 130 mph

[CrazyC83]

139kt flight level winds in SE quad!!

Since the NE quad has not been sampled and winds are likely stronger there, I would go with 115-120 kt.

Wouldn't 139kt FL reduce to 125kt at the surface?

Correct, but the SFMR doesn't support that yet - I doubt there is a 20 kt SFMR gap between SE and NE quad.

[Hurricaneman]

139kt flight level winds in SE quad!!

Since the NE quad has not been sampled and winds are likely stronger there, I would go with 115-120 kt.

Yeah, I think Michael is stronger than the 1AM update.

The winds found by the recon in the SE quad argue surface winds of 140 to 145mph

[pcolaman]

Since the NE quad has not been sampled and winds are likely stronger there, I would go with 115-120 kt.

Yeah, I think Michael is stronger than the 1AM update.

The winds found by the recon in the SE quad argue surface winds of 140 to 145mph

wow!!

[cheezyWXguy]

Since the NE quad has not been sampled and winds are likely stronger there, I would go with 115-120 kt.

Wouldn't 139kt FL reduce to 125kt at the surface?

Correct, but the SFMR doesn't support that yet - I doubt there is a 20 kt SFMR gap between SE and NE quad.

Do you think the FL winds are exaggerated, or is it more likely that FL winds haven't yet mixed down to the surface?

[KWT]

Since the NE quad has not been sampled and winds are likely stronger there, I would go with 115-120 kt.

Wouldn't 139kt FL reduce to 125kt at the surface?

Correct, but the SFMR doesn't support that yet - I doubt there is a 20 kt SFMR gap between SE and NE quad.

Dropsonde information would be useful, but given how powerful the convection is, id bet SFMR is way undergoing it. 139kts is incredible and suggests the NE eyewall maybe even higher. 120kts would be about right now for me.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWx/status/1049903705557004289

[Hammy]

I'm thinking the upgrade was based on the SE quad being much stronger than earlier (I think it was something like 90-95kts) so in all likelihood the NE quad is stronger as well and supports at least the 5kt bump.

[TexasSam]

I have been looking at some if people's live cams on Facebook. I fear many are going to die saying "strong hurricanes don't hit here".
There is always a first time. Like I say, "your going to bet your life on that?"

[Hurricane Andrew]

So I learned today that SFMRs aren't algorithm-based, they are actually hard measurements; open to bad readings, sure, but you can't just throw them out.

[PavelGaborik10]

Genuinely seems that CNN and other major news sources don't give a --- about this storm. Little to no national coverage, at least as far as I can find. Small storm, unpopulated area? I'm Canadian I'm just curious why the lack of coverage?

[PavelGaborik10]

Since the NE quad has not been sampled and winds are likely stronger there, I would go with 115-120 kt.

Wouldn't 139kt FL reduce to 125kt at the surface?

Correct, but the SFMR doesn't support that yet - I doubt there is a 20 kt SFMR gap between SE and NE quad.

It may be close.

[deltadog03]

This definitely is not like your typical northern GOM hurricane at all!!

[Sanibel]

It must have combined a favorable pocket with the Loop Current...

[northjaxpro]

Michael now a Category 4 extremely dangerous monster tropical cyclone!

The worst imaginable scenario is unfolding this early morning for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region.

[KWT]

Genuinely seems that CNN and other major news sources don't give a This will get you banned about this storm. Little to no national coverage, at least as far as I can find. Small storm, unpopulated area? I'm Canadian I'm just curious why the lack of coverage?

I'm guessing they all got burnt by Florence. Not so it wasn't an impressive storm but it certainly didn't come in as a 3 / 4 as they were expecting and so I think the media a little more cautious this time.

As others have said this is not your typical normal Gulf of Mexico storm, most canes this far north are already weakening

[USTropics]

The lightning display is incredible, reminiscent of Rita/Katrina/Emily in 2005 when they were strong Cat4s:

[fwbbreeze]

I've convinced myself it is now on a due north motion with a NNNE bias. Heading to bed...long day tomorrow.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

[mrbagyo]

ADT 9.0 is still running a lil bit too high IMO.
CI is at 7.0 - that's Cat 5 number - which is way above recon data. They gotta revise that algorithm.