ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rwfromkansas]

Following the latest can be a bit of a roller coaster on here. Yesterday it was going to hit the Outer Banks and would spare the worst in populated areas aside from massive flooding. Then, it was struggling with the EWRC. This morning, it was closing the eye and may be a cat 5 at some point later due to favorable conditions. Now, just a few hours later, the talk is that it's going to slow down and may only be a cat 3 at landfall. Oh, and it may hit further south again. Glad I'm not in the path of this thing.

[cheezyWXguy]

Florence is wrapping some noticeably deeper convection around its eye, compared to yesterday. Given the size increase, I wouldn't be shocked to see its pressure down to the mid 930s when recon returns. When is the next flight?

[tolakram]

When is the next recon?

I see

AF 11/2330Z - 7:30PM EDT

As the next one.

[SunnyThoughts]

Florence is wrapping some noticeably deeper convection around its eye, compared to yesterday. Given the size increase, I wouldn't be shocked to see its pressure down to the mid 930s when recon returns. When is the next flight?

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Plan of the Day


195
NOUS42 KNHC 091621
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1220 PM EDT SUN 09 SEPTEMBER 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-108

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 11/0000Z A. 10/2330Z
B. NOAA9 0406A FLORENCE B. AFXXX 0506A FLORENCE
C. 10/1730Z C. 10/1845Z
D. NA D. 25.6N 61.7W
E. NA E. 10/2300Z TO 11/0230Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 72
A. 11/1200Z A. 11/1130Z
B. NOAA9 0606A FLORENCE B. AFXXX 0706A FLORENCE
C. 11/0530Z C. 11/0730Z
D. NA D. 26.4N 64.7W
E. NA E. 11/0500Z TO 11/0830Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[PavelGaborik10]

Florence is wrapping some noticeably deeper convection around its eye, compared to yesterday. Given the size increase, I wouldn't be shocked to see its pressure down to the mid 930s when recon returns. When is the next flight?

She's in the warmest water of her life right now. I think today will be her peak.

That is assuming she can stop swallowing dry air.

[SunnyThoughts]

I still have trouble with Zulu time after all these years so im not sure even looking at the above information when the next flight is, or even if there is another flight today. Not sure at all.

[Vdogg]

The northern component has increased noticeably. Looks to be moving NW.

[Ken711]

Will Florence have an affect on other potential Atlantic storms that could follow later from the track it's taken?

[meriland29]

How is her strength right now? Is she struggling?

[Aric Dunn]

How is her strength right now? Is she struggling?

the inner eye looks to have finally completely dissipated. only a matter of time now before deepening.

not sure why the recon is so few and far between. but hopefully there is another soon.

[plasticup]

The northern component has increased noticeably. Looks to be moving NW.

I guess those NHC folks knew what they were talking about

[ronyan]

How is her strength right now? Is she struggling?

Looks pretty healthy on vis, eye is starting to become more defined.

[tolakram]

Good view of how large Florence is.

[Raebie]

How is her strength right now? Is she struggling?

No, she's not 'struggling'. She's getting ready to devastate my state.

[Aric Dunn]

Good view of how large Florence is.

[im gur]https://imgur.com/ajsS5ce[/imgur]

also shows the steady wnw motion pretty clear.

[meriland29]

It looks like the 12z models and NHC are foreseeing a markedly weaker storm coming up than previously forecasted. Still a powerful and scary storm, especially with that stall..but it is good that it is not anticipated to be as strong...

[sittingduck]

I still have trouble with Zulu time after all these years so im not sure even looking at the above information when the next flight is, or even if there is another flight today. Not sure at all.

I think it is 7:30 edt tonight

[Aric Dunn]

It looks like the 12z models and NHC are foreseeing a markedly weaker storm coming up than previously forecasted. Still a powerful and scary storm, especially with that stall..but it is good that it is not anticipated to be as strong...

yeah that is due mostly to the very slow approach speed to the coast. number if possible issues arise. from upwelling to upper winds shifting etc. It also might not weaken that much. only time will tell.

[plasticup]

Good view of how large Florence is.

[img ur]https://imgur.com/ajsS5ce[/imgur]

Pretty small, right? At least, not much bigger than average and certainly not large for a storm of her strength.

[Raebie]

It looks like the 12z models and NHC are foreseeing a markedly weaker storm coming up than previously forecasted. Still a powerful and scary storm, especially with that stall..but it is good that it is not anticipated to be as strong...

The surge and rainfall will not change. Just possibly the wind speeds.