ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[USTropics]

Looks like recon is indeed going to go through NE quad this time, should be next report:

[PavelGaborik10]

This storm is looking absolute incredible right now.

Need to see data from that NE quad, is this storm as strong as it looks? Maybe, maybe not.

[NotoSans]

Possibly a 120-knot hurricane right now as per recon. Still running a bit lower than Dvorak though.

[xironman]

121 SFMR

[Buck]

Sergio, Michael, Leslie and Nadine. Wow. October 10.

[Hammy]

This storm is looking absolute incredible right now.

Need to see data from that NE quad, is this storm as strong as it looks? Maybe, maybe not.

It's been running below satellite estimates most of the time, likely due to the less than ideal environment. That said the latest pass still supports 120kt and it's still intensifying.

[KWT]

NE quad weaker than SE quadrant, not too surprising given convection briefly wanted in that quad in the last 45 mins.

Still easily justifies 115kts though, 120kts possible but that SMFR was through VERY high rainfall rate which may make them discard due to lower FL at the time making it suspect

[Condor]

Has anyone seen Aric post recently? He's been as big a part of forecasting the evolution of this as anyone.

I see NNE movement but am guessing it will wobble back to near due north for a couple of hours before going NNE and NE for good as it is still a little too soon for steady NNE movement yet per models.

I assumed he was chasing, but keeping it quiet.

Aric is chasing. He is in the chat.

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chat?

[USTropics]

solid 942/943 mb readings:

[hurricaneCW]

NE quad weaker than SE quadrant, not too surprising given convection briefly wanted in that quad in the last 45 mins.

Still easily justifies 115kts though, 120kts possible but that SMFR was through VERY high rainfall rate which may make them discard due to lower FL at the time making it suspect

Weaker? Surface winds were 121kts in NE vs. 105kts on the SE quad.

The 120/121 readings weren't flagged either.

[xironman]

I assumed he was chasing, but keeping it quiet.

Aric is chasing. He is in the chat.

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chat?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119810

[northjaxpro]

942.4 mb was the lowest I saw.

[Sciencerocks]

120 knots is what I'd place this and chances of this making landfall as a cat4 is looking likely.

[NDG]

My heart aches, I can't sleep and then this just in.

072230 2813N 08624W 6931 02805 9616 +102 -087 134102 116 121 066 00
072300 2812N 08625W 7009 02665 9545 +137 +131 127075 091 120 069 00

[Cunxi Huang]

since Michael starts traveling towards NE, flight level wind would increase significantly in its SE quadrant.
Recent SFMR 121 knots in the NE quadrant can be a good reason to upgrade Michael to a 120-knot Cat.4 for next advisory.

[southerngale]

Aric is chasing. He is in the chat.

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chat?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119810

Go to the Active Storms chat.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Basically this reminds me of Opal, Ivan, Dennis (location of landfall, not exact) and Charley in terms of this crazy rate of intensification and defiance of intensity forecasts. This is terrifying. This should not be downplayed; I reckon >$50 billion in damages could take place. Definitely, this "M" name would have to go.

[northjaxpro]

120 Kt Solid Cat 4 .

[KWT]

NE quad weaker than SE quadrant, not too surprising given convection briefly wanted in that quad in the last 45 mins.

Still easily justifies 115kts though, 120kts possible but that SMFR was through VERY high rainfall rate which may make them discard due to lower FL at the time making it suspect

Weaker? Surface winds were 121kts in NE vs. 105kts on the SE quad.

The 120/121 readings weren't flagged either.

Flight level winds Wereabout15kts weakeand and I'm personally thinking those surface estimates are too high based on that very high rainfall rates. FL winds of 139kts in SE and SFMR was way too low in comparison.

If they go with it, then yes 120kts would be justified

[PavelGaborik10]

Basically this reminds me of Opal, Ivan, Dennis (location of landfall, not exact) and Charley in terms of this crazy rate of intensification and defiance of intensity forecasts. This is terrifying. This should not be downplayed; I reckon >$50 billion in damages could take place. Definitely, this "M" name would have to go.

Unfortunately this is looking scarier than all of the storms you mentioned right now.