WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

What's the MPI for Maria? From what I can see, there doesn't seem to be much in its way... is T7.5+ possible with this beast?

Just on a glance, it looks like Emanuel's MPI calcs are about 160 kt/880 mb, so totally possible.

[mrbagyo]

What's the MPI for Maria? From what I can see, there doesn't seem to be much in its way... is T7.5+ possible with this beast?

Would probably go into that territory by sundown - cloudtops would start to get colder.

[NotoSans]

Looks like a category 5 to me as well.

[euro6208]

What's more impressive is that Maria has about 3 more days to reach it's peak of 891 mb as per 18Z GFS. Clearly outperforming it.

EURO and GFS has Okinawa set in stone and after that... the World's 2nd most populated city and metropolitan, Shanghai is in play.

[NotoSans]

TPPN11 PGTW 060029

A. TYPHOON 10W (MARIA)

B. 06/0000Z

C. 16.03N

D. 142.03E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D3.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET YIELDS 5.0, AND PT YIELDS 5.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/2114Z 15.57N 142.17E SSMS


LOWE

[euro6208]

Poor WPAC ...has to rely on dvorak.

Maria and Irma last year only got up to 7.0 look what recon found. Literally catching up.

[Yellow Evan]

What's more impressive is that Maria has about 3 more days to reach it's peak of 891 mb as per 18Z GFS. Clearly outperforming it.

EURO and GFS has Okinawa set in stone and after that... the World's 2nd most populated city and metropolitan, Shanghai is in play.

https://i.imgur.com/IJWRri6.png
https://i.imgur.com/gCoFbC7.png

https://i.imgur.com/Uo0Ig9e.png

Honestly expect everything else from here on out to be driven by inner core dynamics. Small changes in pressure shown by global models don't mean much.

[1900hurricane]

Constrained JMA is at 90 kt (between a 5.5 and 6.0 intensity). They go up to 110 kt in their forecast though (between 7.0 and 7.5).

TY 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 6 July 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 6 July>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N16°00' (16.0°)
E142°05' (142.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 330 km (180 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 7 July>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N17°20' (17.3°)
E141°35' (141.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 8 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N19°30' (19.5°)
E140°00' (140.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 9 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N22°00' (22.0°)
E135°35' (135.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 500 km (270 NM)

[NotoSans]

JTWC decided to go with 140 knots at 00Z, making Maria the first category 5 in the northern hemisphere since Maria.

[euro6208]

First Cat 5 in the WPAC since December 2016's STY Nock-Ten.

[cycloneye]

@MichaelRLowry
What a difference 16 hours makes. Stunning loop of Typhoon #Maria's explosive development today in the western Pacific (loop via @UWSSEC).

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1015040789091618816

[cycloneye]

@DanLindsey77
Update - Typhoon #Maria from #Himawari

 https://twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/1015007549995675648

[gatorcane]

Wow

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Kingarabian]

Damn she bad

[mrbagyo]

[Kingarabian]

Probably a high end cat.4 now.

[Highteeld]

Something about the JMA now forecasting a "violent" typhoon makes tracking Maria even more interesting than before.

[mrbagyo]

:uarrow:

Probably a high end cat.4 now.

She's a 5

60 to 140 in 24 hours
10W MARIA 180706 0000 16.0N 142.0E WPAC 140 918

[euro6208]

Incredible.

[Highteeld]

We've got ourselves a niner