ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[txwatcher91]

Overall structure has improved significantly with Beryl the past few hours and we are near Dmin as well. Overall outflow has expanded a good bit to the north, better banding in all quadrants, a nice inflow of warm air from the south.. Dmax tonight should be very interesting to see what happens...

[GCANE]

Just checked latest GFS at 08/12Z.
If Beryl is actually a bit north of current forecast position at this time, it'll be under an anticyclone before it gets to the islands.
A possible window of low shear.

[Aric Dunn]

Given that this storm is nowhere near land, the NHC can afford to be conservative and wait to upgrade. They can always change everything in post-analysis.

It's not like they have to play catch-up fast knowing they have to put warnings out...

Yeah, their discussion with likely have verbiage a long the lines of. "the intensity maybe conservative"

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z models ran on a 45 knot Beryl, MSLP 1004mb.

[Yellow Evan]

Given that this storm is nowhere near land, the NHC can afford to be conservative and wait to upgrade. They can always change everything in post-analysis.

It's not like they have to play catch-up fast knowing they have to put warnings out...

At the end of the day, it's the NHC's job to get it right. Being far from land isn't an excuse to be conservative (or bullish for that matter).

[tolakram]

SLIDER view. Pulsing convection, I am doubting it's a hurricane but it's just my non-pro opinion.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17255.5&y=8667&z=5&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

IR: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17255.5&y=8667&z=5&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=12&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Frank2]

Tiny system and also doubt its a hurricane (CIMSS view)::

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

[Aric Dunn]

SLIDER view. Pulsing convection, I am doubting it's a hurricane but it's just my non-pro opinion.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17255.5&y=8667&z=5&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

IR: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17255.5&y=8667&z=5&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=12&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

It appears to be a classic inner core organization. multiple hot towers developing and wrapping inward tightening as the pressure falls. if you notice the radius of that eye feature on sat has shrunk with a new hot tower developing on the north side. typically after this point and we see and rapidly deepening hurricane.

[MississippiWx]

Careful. The convection with this storm is shallow making it easier for an eye feature to pop out. The structure is impressive, but an eye does not always = hurricane.

[Hammy]

No way this is a hurricane given the convective pattern but it's certainly trying. I'd personally go with 50kt at the moment, but could see an upgrade if the deepest convection can wrap all the way around (and stay there).

[BYG Jacob]

Careful. The convection with this storm is shallow making it easier for an eye feature to pop out. The structure is impressive, but an eye does not always = hurricane.

It also has a completed eyewall. If its not a hurricane, its really close.

[Kazmit]

This can't be only 40mph.

[MississippiWx]

This can't be only 40mph.

More than likely 50kts or so. Hurricane isn’t out of the realm of possibility if the structure holds and the convection can deepen a little more.

[Aric Dunn]

last few frames. showing a pinhole eye. surrounded by ever-increasing convection. overall not incredibly high up convection. but plenty deep enough. we have seen shallow hurricanes before many times.

[Gustywind]

last few frames. showing a pinhole eye. surrounded by ever-increasing convection.

So Aric, you think that we have a hurricane now?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Tiny system and also doubt its a hurricane (CIMSS view)::

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

Also spoils the 5 PM intensity forecast update: Cat 1 36 hours from now.

[Steve H.]

Well, the nhc said that they would discuss the intensity at the 5pm advisory. So we'll see what their analysis shows.

[LarryWx]

It appears this is/will be the strongest Beryl of the 7 so far since 60 mph is the strongest of the prior 6.

[Aric Dunn]

last few frames. showing a pinhole eye. surrounded by ever-increasing convection.

So Aric, you think that we have a hurricane now?

not quite. 60 to 70 mph seems reasonable. just a little more deep convection and it will be on its way.

[Kingarabian]

Other than the shear it may run into near 50W, it'll also run into a suppressed Kelvin wave:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1014883968230088705