WPAC: YUTU - Post-Tropical

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Guamphoon
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#261 Postby Guamphoon » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:34 am

supercane4867 wrote:We have a 155kt TC hitting US territory yet the radar is down. It’s really hard to extrapolate central pressure without sufficient radar data if those stations miss the eye. What a great loss


The Guam radar has been having issues for almost 2 years. It is bullshit that we keep going through this. Somehow the feds can find trillions for corporate tax cuts and the military, but can't get enough money to properly fund NWS radars.

It's a shame.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#262 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:38 am

I've heard some news about Saipan before, but Filipino news barely has any coverage on Yutu passing Saipan. Saipan is a Filipino-plurality territory. Coverage on US media and Filipino media is minimal. This is a devastating, powerful storm and it is unfortunate that there is barely any coverage on Yutu here.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#263 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:39 am

Another northerly wobble. This thing is nuking Tinian and Saipan dead on


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Last edited by supercane4867 on Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#264 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:39 am

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1055117681999953921


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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#265 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:45 am

Saipan beach cam is still on and sounds like total hell on earth. Wish it could survive the storm.

Crazy eyewall lightning going on


https://www.earthcam.com/world/northern ... cam=saipan
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#266 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:54 am

Tinian island in the eye of a powerful 155kt Category 5 storm!

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#267 Postby edu2703 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:55 am

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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#268 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:58 am

FXXT03 EGRR 241556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.10.2018

TYPHOON YUTU ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 146.3E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.10.2018 14.7N 146.3E INTENSE
00UTC 25.10.2018 15.8N 144.5E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.10.2018 16.6N 142.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 26.10.2018 16.9N 140.9E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.10.2018 17.5N 138.5E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.10.2018 18.1N 135.5E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.10.2018 18.2N 132.7E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.10.2018 17.5N 130.3E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.10.2018 16.7N 128.4E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2018 16.1N 126.6E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2018 15.6N 124.8E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.10.2018 15.6N 122.6E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.10.2018 15.7N 120.0E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#269 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:03 am

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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#270 Postby edu2703 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:05 am

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1055126581486727176


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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#271 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:15 am

2018OCT24 154000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A OFF 99.50 99.50 LAND N/A N/A 15.04 -145.63 ARCHER HIM-8 18.5
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#272 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:16 am

It's going to be one epic disaster there. Making even Michael look weak by comparison.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#273 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:47 am

We've discussed the rarity of both North Pacific basins plus the North Atlantic having above-average ACE, but how about each of them getting a major TC landfall in the span of two weeks? :eek:

Andrew/Iniki/Omar in '92 might be the last time something similar has occurred.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#274 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:44 pm

SconnieCane wrote:We've discussed the rarity of both North Pacific basins plus the North Atlantic having above-average ACE, but how about each of them getting a major TC landfall in the span of two weeks? :eek:

Andrew/Iniki/Omar in '92 might be the last time something similar has occurred.


Only thing missing is a major hit from a monster in the Indian Ocean. We're into their 2nd season now.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#275 Postby WAcyclone » Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:48 pm

It indeed doesn't look like any part of Saipan went through the eye. IR imagery can be deceiving...

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1055153105623506944




Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#276 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:55 pm

HWRF 12z initialized Yutu at 158.5 knots
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#277 Postby Cunxi Huang » Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:15 pm

Super Typhoon Meranti over Itbayat:
Image

Super Typhoon Yutu over Tinian:
Image
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#278 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:24 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 241810

A. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (YUTU)

B. 24/1740Z

C. 15.28N

D. 145.33E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF
7.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/1506Z 14.90N 145.75E GPMI
24/1551Z 15.05N 145.68E ATMS


LOWE
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#279 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:34 pm

The passage over the island seems to have weakened Yutu as shown on BD imagery
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#280 Postby TorSkk » Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:35 pm

More likely the ongoing ERC has weakened it.
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