ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

Can't get the loop to post, but she is a full on beast now...It would not surprise me at all for recon to find 150 mph winds when they get there in a couple hours.

[michelinj]

NHC is back to forecasting 135kt peak intensity. That may happen sooner as early as this evening when recon arrives.

And when does recon arrive?

[supercane4867]

NHC is back to forecasting 135kt peak intensity. That may happen sooner as early as this evening when recon arrives.

And when does recon arrive?

Approximately 7PM eastern time I believe

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1039612241316855808

[Nimbus]

The poleward upper air flow pattern is currently quite strong just a 5 degrees north of Florence.
She might have gone out to sea if she were just a few degrees further north.
Usually a slowdown stall followed by the loss of latitude during the ridging sequence, but the 12Z models all still calling for Friday landfall.

[michelinj]

NHC is back to forecasting 135kt peak intensity. That may happen sooner as early as this evening when recon arrives.

And when does recon arrive?

Approximately 7PM eastern time I believe

Nooooo that’s 00:00 here in London and I have school tomorrow!

[Blown Away]

I'm glad I'm not a hurricane forecaster trying to figure out what Florence will do as it nears the NC coast. Wait, I am a hurricane forecaster! Shoot. My track doesn't look anything like the NHC track. I think the good forecasters there are scratching their heads too after seeing the latest EC & ensembles. They'll adjust the track southward overnight. I have it stalling near Cape Fear then moving west just inside the SC/NC border. No south of west movement, yet...

Earlier "Exceptional" was being used to describe the HP system building as Flo nears the CONUS, could it be this is an "Exceptional" situation and modeling/traditional forecasting is underestimating this event?

[Extratropical94]

Based on the newest plan, it looks like they delayed the start of the three-hour fixes for Florence by half a day, so it should be six hours starting tonight through tomorrow, and then three hours starting on Thursday morning.

They probably did some rescheduling due to the possible TC in the Gulf.

[wayoutfront]

Never seen anything like this before. Metogram for Wilmington

http://magaimg.net/img/651y.jpg

Thats insane. Thats like 1" per hour for like 36 hours

And from what I’ve read a LOT of people are defying the evacuation orders and these people have the means to leave.

People on the EC of NC are painfully unaware that they haven't experienced a land falling hurricane in a very long time ..

If you talk to them they leave you with the impression that they are very experienced with hurricanes ....NC hasnt experienced one like this in 60 years .....I honestly cant remember the last direct hit NC (not counting the outer banks )had from the right side of a Hurricane ...much less a Major .....This could very well be an combination of Hazel and a Floyd ........or not ..but only a fool will take their chances....having a Hurricane party in TS force winds ...just isnt gojng to happen Thursday like they are used too

[Nimbus]

And when does recon arrive?

Approximately 7PM eastern time I believe

Nooooo that’s 00:00 here in London and I have school tomorrow!

If recon gets called off again to notify some recreational boater near 60N 35W we may not get the upper air sampling.

[Blinhart]

I really think RECON will find a Cat 5 by the time they are done with their flight. It has all the looks of going through a major intensification again. I'm just worried about if this does go further South, there will be so many people that will not be prepared to evacuate or it will be too late to evacuate.

[Nimbus]

I really think RECON will find a Cat 5 by the time they are done with their flight. It has all the looks of going through a major intensification again. I'm just worried about if this does go further South, there will be so many people that will not be prepared to evacuate or it will be too late to evacuate.

Probably stall before it loses any latitude and that would give some time to adjust the evacuation zones. Very bad situation with possibly not a lot of time to make final preps if that happened though.

[jlauderdal]

Nobody has an excuse, everyone will have been sufficiently warned including the moron in the sailboat.

I really think RECON will find a Cat 5 by the time they are done with their flight. It has all the looks of going through a major intensification again. I'm just worried about if this does go further South, there will be so many people that will not be prepared to evacuate or it will be too late to evacuate.

[NDG]

[Kingarabian]

My folks and some other relatives are going further in land towards Clinton although I don't know how much a difference that will make in terms of flooding...

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the GFS is doing the Euro thing, Initial landfall May not happen an this could go SSW but it may not be known where landfall is going to be but location will depend on where it turns back west and anywhere from North Florida to OBX need to monitor this especially those in the Wilmington/Cape Fear area

[Maryellen46]

Thats insane. Thats like 1" per hour for like 36 hours

And from what I’ve read a LOT of people are defying the evacuation orders and these people have the means to leave.

People on the EC of NC are painfully unaware that they haven't experienced a land falling hurricane in a very long time ..

If you talk to them they leave you with the impression that they are very experienced with hurricanes ....NC hasnt experienced one like this in 60 years .....I honestly cant remember the last direct hit NC (not counting the outer banks )had from the right side of a Hurricane ...much less a Major .....This could very well be an combination of Hazel and a Floyd ........or not ..but only a fool will take their chances....having a Hurricane party in TS force winds ...just isnt gojng to happen Thursday like they are used too

They interviewed a guy who was originally from Boston on CNN and said since he was in blizzards that produced 2-3 feet of snow, he could handle storm surge since snow was harder to deal with than water.

[beoumont]

My old friend and sometimes chase partner, Jim Leonard, often said, "The hurricane is going to do something stupid just before landfall." This usually happened in the way of a stall for awhile, a jump in one direction or another, a marked change in intensity, etc. Always keep that in mind when you get attached to any model or forecast.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

And from what I’ve read a LOT of people are defying the evacuation orders and these people have the means to leave.

People on the EC of NC are painfully unaware that they haven't experienced a land falling hurricane in a very long time ..

If you talk to them they leave you with the impression that they are very experienced with hurricanes ....NC hasnt experienced one like this in 60 years .....I honestly cant remember the last direct hit NC (not counting the outer banks )had from the right side of a Hurricane ...much less a Major .....This could very well be an combination of Hazel and a Floyd ........or not ..but only a fool will take their chances....having a Hurricane party in TS force winds ...just isnt gojng to happen Thursday like they are used too

They interviewed a guy who was originally from Boston on CNN and said since he was in blizzards that produced 2-3 feet of snow, he could handle storm surge since snow was harder to deal with than water.

the stupid is strong with that one *face palm*

[Hammy]

I really think RECON will find a Cat 5 by the time they are done with their flight. It has all the looks of going through a major intensification again. I'm just worried about if this does go further South, there will be so many people that will not be prepared to evacuate or it will be too late to evacuate.

Still some dry air in the area, the convection on the western half has weakened quite a bit from earlier so it's likely leveled off for the time being. Tomorrow could be another story though.