ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

So I guess a lot of people have decided to ride this one out from all the articles I've read.

I think that's due to a combination of media backlash after the Florence hype and ironically a lack of coverage on Michael. The results may unfortunately be devastating.

Only about 10-12 hrs till landfall now.

This is basically coming in at a similar level to Charley. As you say I think the factors you mentioned plus the fact this area has had nothing even close to this for generations is leading unfortunately to complancy.

I feel so bad for those folks. The Charley lesson was a hard one for those who stayed. I met one of my customers who was in his early 30's after the storm and he had gray hair from it where he didn't before. I would never try to ride a 3+ out, ever.

[tolakram]

[xironman]

So I guess a lot of people have decided to ride this one out from all the articles I've read.

I think that's due to a combination of media backlash after the Florence hype and ironically a lack of coverage on Michael. The results may unfortunately be devastating.

Only about 10-12 hrs till landfall now.

Well, for Florence if you include the deaths from the flooding I think it was 51, so hype could be a stretch.

[USTropics]

Eyewall is officially closed now:

000
URNT12 KNHC 100919
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 10/09:04:10Z
B. 28.44 deg N 086.50 deg W
C. 700 mb 2585 m
D. 940 mb
E. 150 deg 33 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. 108 kt
I. 113 deg 12 nm 09:00:30Z
J. 200 deg 130 kt
K. 115 deg 14 nm 09:00:00Z
L. 106 kt
M. 305 deg 7 nm 09:06:30Z
N. 016 deg 94 kt
O. 305 deg 7 nm 09:06:30Z
P. 12 C / 3048 m
Q. 19 C / 3046 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF306 1314A MICHAEL OB 16
MAX FL WIND 130 KT 115 / 14 NM 09:00:00Z

;

[Clearcloudz]

[Clearcloudz]

[USTropics]

I believe that was the last pass for AF306 Mission #13. NOAA2 Mission #14 is already back in action though, getting ready for its first pass over the center:

[TheStormExpert]

So I guess a lot of people have decided to ride this one out from all the articles I've read.

I think that's due to a combination of media backlash after the Florence hype and ironically a lack of coverage on Michael. The results may unfortunately be devastating.

Only about 10-12 hrs till landfall now.

Well, for Florence if you include the deaths from the flooding I think it was 51, so hype could be a stretch.

It also doesn’t help when you have a certain someone on Twitter downplaying this big time!

[cjrciadt]

N to S Center approach!?!!

[GCANE]

Entraining 3500 CAPE air from his SE.
Basically no Convective Inhibition on the Coast.
Hot pool of water ahead.

Worst-case scenario unfortunately for further intensification

[GCANE]

Jeff is live

https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1jMKgEmnmabJL

[xironman]

So I guess a lot of people have decided to ride this one out from all the articles I've read.

I think that's due to a combination of media backlash after the Florence hype and ironically a lack of coverage on Michael. The results may unfortunately be devastating.

Only about 10-12 hrs till landfall now.

Well, for Florence if you include the deaths from the flooding I think it was 51, so hype could be a stretch.

It also doesn’t help when you have a certain someone on Twitter downplaying this big time!

Really who could be that stupid? No wonder I am not on Twitter. With a strengthening cat 4 if there vortices in the eyewall they can complete wipe out wooden structures. A rare occasion where the wind is almost a dangerous as the water.

[USTropics]

Looks like AF306 Mission #13 is now heading for another pass, so 2 passes coming up back to back:

[deltadog03]

Entraining 3500 CAPE air from his SE.
Basically no Convective Inhibition on the Coast.
Hot pool of water ahead.

Worst-case scenario unfortunately for further intensification

http://i63.tinypic.com/2wcqmf6.png

That's a bit scary

[KWT]

N to S Center approach!?!!

Yep let's see what the pressure is doing...

Still bursting decently on the Eastern section of the eyewall, think it's going to keep that pattern till the end now.

[GCANE]

Quick look of recon flying at 700mb.
Eye dewpoint is maintain approx 15C.
No sign of an EWRC starting.

[xironman]

30 ft wave heights offshore https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42039 there is going to be some big surf hitting PBC

[cjrciadt]

Last two Cat 4+ imapcts in FL were also peaking at landfall Charley/Andrew

[AdamFirst]

Eye is visible on the Eglin AFB radar.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1049961248186671110