ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

[KWT]

A rash of 100kt DMFR winds in the northern eyewall, I think a few are flagged but still at least 110kts in that quad.

Pressure extrap about 936.

[karenfromheaven]

Live tide and wind station data from ground zero, until it breaks:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stati ... id=8729210

[wx98]

10z position update brought it down to 937 mbar, recon suggests the pressure falls continue

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...5 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...RAINBANDS OF MICHAEL SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data has fallen to 937 mb
(27.67 inches). NOAA buoy 42039 recently reported sustained winds
of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 67 mph (108 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

[GCANE]

Kermit just reported 70 mm/hr rain rate in the eyewall.
In the clear.
Incredible!

Core is still heating up.

[drezee]

141mph West wind on the S side of the storm is sick. I'll have to check but that has to be the strongest pure W wind I've seen since Isabel...

[KWT]

10z position update brought it down to 937 mbar, recon suggests the pressure falls continue

Yep no hints of it weakening at all either. Pressures still dropping, think it's going sub 935mbs.

Lowest October landfall hurricane is 938mbs from Hazel...looking do able.

[GCANE]

Kermit
Extrap 936.9mb
Dewpoint 15.5C

[USTropics]

In 24 hours the pressure has dropped from 973mb to 937mb (36mb drop). The pressure 12 hours ago was 957mb (20mb drop).

[KWT]

Kermit
Extrap 936.9mb
Dewpoint 15.5C

AF flight about to do a Sw-NE pass, we will see just how strong those winds are in that quadrant. Nearly all quads now at 100kts in the eyewall.

[cjrciadt]

In 24 hours the pressure has dropped from 973mb to 937mb (36mb drop). The pressure 12 hours ago was 957mb (20mb drop).

[USTropics]

BTW anyone looking for a fullscreen Radar with overlays through the web browser, this is a pretty good one:

https://www.wjhg.com/templates/2015_Fullscreen_Radar

[Blown Away]

Looks like NNE on radar. Making the turn maybe?

[jdjaguar]

So I guess a lot of people have decided to ride this one out from all the articles I've read.

I think that's due to a combination of media backlash after the Florence hype and ironically a lack of coverage on Michael. The results may unfortunately be devastating.

Only about 10-12 hrs till landfall now.

The reality of it is if Michael was bearing down on the east coast the media frenzy would again be extreme.

[USTropics]

Also a list of working webcams I put together (all working as of an hour ago anyways):

Panama City Beach (Gulfcrest Cam) - https://stream.webcams.travel/1397859754
Panama City Beach (Pineapple Willy's) - https://pwillys.com/beach-cam/
Panama City Beach (Calypso) - http://www.calypsowebcam.com/
Panama City Beach (Emerald View) - http://www.emeraldviewresorts.com/panam ... h-web-cam/
Panama City Beach (Holiday Inn) - https://www.hipcbeach.com/holiday-inn-resort-beach-cam/
Panama City Beach (Runaway Island) - https://runawayislandpcb.com/panama-city-beach-webcam/
Panama City Beach (Sandpiper Beacon) - https://sandpiperbeacon.com/panama-city ... m/fun-cam/
Panama City Beach (Schooners) - https://www.schooners.com/multimedia/sunsetcam.htm
Panama City Beach (Shark's) - https://seahavenbeach.com/panama-city/webcams/sharkys/
Panama City Beach (Spinnaker) - https://spinnakerbeachclub.com/beach-web-cams/
Easy Panama City Beach (By the Seas) - https://bythesearesorts.com/east-panama ... -live-cam/
St. Andrews Bay (Barefoot) - https://bythesearesorts.com/st-andrews-bay-live-cam/
Alys Beach Webcam - http://www.alysbeach.com/webcam/
Seaside Beach (Bud & Alley's) - https://www.budandalleys.com/webcam/
Choctawhatchee Bay - https://30a.com/bay-cam
Destin Beach (Ocean Reef) - https://www.oceanreefresorts.com/beachc ... -beach-cam

Saint Joes - http://www.hurricanetrack.com/ (may need the App or a Sub for Mark Sudduth's cams):

[wx98]

I normally don’t wobble watch but looking at radar Michael appears to ever so slightly be trying to make the NNE turn. At this point it would have to go NNE to LF at Panama/Laguna and more NE to Port St Joe.

[meriland29]

Just woke up to check on the NHC and all I could do was literally cover my mouth with my hand. This is going to be a cat5 at landfall isn't it.............

[tolakram]

Source: https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

[wx98]

Looks like NNE on radar. Making the turn maybe?

I was actually noticing the same thing.