ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[cheezyWXguy]

this run could be even worse than the last. 906mb at hr 186, almost on top of Cape Hatteras. Unbelieveable.

[PTrackerLA]

Is it just me or has the GFS become more absurd with it's minimum pressures of TC's in the last few years? How can this model think it's reasonable to sit right offshore (50-75 miles tops) Cape Hatteras for 2.5 days while steadily deepening to 908mb? Need to remove the Day After Tomorrow update on this model.

[PandaCitrus]

It would be right over the Gulf Stream at this point with among the highest oceanic heat content in the Atlantic and continually refreshed water. I'm not sure upwelling will be as significant as you may think.

[Ken711]

See Hurricane Harvey, 2017.

For 48 hours in the same location though?

Longer than that. 180 is strongest so far. 908mb and a bit up the coast vs 937 and SW last run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=180

That close to the coastline I thought land interaction would start to weaken it.

[HurricaneEric]

Alright this run is garbage from here on out. 54 hours stalled in the same position and still maintaining major hurricane status??? Give me a break GFS.




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[SunnyThoughts]

Hour 198, is it finally going to move east out to sea? We shall see

[Hammy]

Is it just me or has the GFS become more absurd with it's minimum pressures of TC's in the last few years? How can this model think it's reasonable to sit right offshore (50-75 miles tops) Cape Hatteras for 2.5 days while steadily deepening to 908mb? Need to remove the Day After Tomorrow update on this model.

As far as I know the NHC sent a written objection to allowing the GFS upgrade last year (noting the flaws) but for whatever reason it was implemented anyway. It's become as bad (if not worse) than the Canadian model, which at least shows reasonable intensities even if the tracks/phantom storms are off.

Also the takeaway from this run that I'm getting is that while there might be a slightly weaker high pressure in the shorter term, the hurricane is far more likely to get trapped for several days rather than simply go out to sea, which actually drastically worsens the coastal effects compared to simply moving onshore and continuing inland/scraping the coast.

[meriland29]

Alright this run is garbage from here on out. 54 hours stalled in the same position and still maintaining major hurricane status??? Give me a break GFS.




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GFS is better at track than intensity IMO. Focus on the track, not the intensity.

[PTrackerLA]

I mean it's still completely stalled well into next Monday what is going on

[Steve]

Recall the water is hot off the seaboard. The Gulf Stream moves in at 5-6mph and is always moving through there. Upwelling would happen but that’s one place where it would be lessened by the stream cutting under it.

[bob rulz]

Is there anybody who keeps track of how accurate the respective models actually are? Something like the average NHC track errors for the year, but with models?

[PTrackerLA]

Looks to finally be moving ENE at 231hrs on the 00z GFS...



I'm not buying this epic stall in the least, but if it were to happen this REALLY needs to stay offshore. I doubted and laughed at the rainfall projections in the days leading up to Harvey's landfall..then it actually happened and then some just like with the unnamed storm flood of 2016 in Louisiana. Two prolific rain events in back to back years with several days of notice via EURO and GFS.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Alright this run is garbage from here on out. 54 hours stalled in the same position and still maintaining major hurricane status??? Give me a break GFS.




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GFS is better at track than intensity IMO. Focus on the track, not the intensity.

gfs is barely better at track compared to models like the euro. Also following one models track is ignorant. That's why we look at model guidance. Certain models carry more weight than others.

[Steve]

CMC hits South Carolina. It’s south of but much closer to the NHC. Can’t tell if it stalls out or not yet.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=132

[TheDreamTraveler]

On the americanwx.com forums a couple of meteorologists there are saying that they don't expect the track to be as far east as the gfs. So take that as you will.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Alright this run is garbage from here on out. 54 hours stalled in the same position and still maintaining major hurricane status??? Give me a break GFS.




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So, a cat five off Hatteras. Could happen, still seems unlikely.

[Steve]

On the americanwx.com forums a couple of meteorologists there are saying that they don't expect the track to be far east as the gfs. So take that as you will.

I don’t think many of us do either. I sure don’t.

[cheezyWXguy]

This run obviously appears absurd, and rightfully so, because as previously discussed the GFS does not take into account upwelling. However there are 2 things to consider that are just as true in this run as in previous runs:

1) As this storm approaches land, steering currents break down. Any weird wobble, that could not possibly be forecast this far out, could mean the difference between a close scrape and a major landfall.

2) The environment Florence will be in as it approaches landfall will be very favorable, but intensity will be a wildcard as well. Will it capitalize on extra time over water? Ingest dry air from land? Upwelling? Structural changes?

The point is, even though there are still deviations in track and intensity that will not be resolved for the next couple days, a general consensus is sufficiently present to say with confidence that this situation is far too dangerous to simply sit back and wonder if it's going to happen. Better safe than sorry, and its time to prepare now.

[LarryWx]

The low SLP bias of the gfs above 25N for Hs continues to be a joke.

[mcheer23]

Been busy tonight. Anyone have the ukmet