ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Yellow Evan]

Remember GFS can't depict upwelling.

[Hammy]

The low SLP bias of the gfs above 25N for Hs continues to be a joke.

Any chance that bias could also explain the east bias to the tracks? I remember it being well east of Florida with Irma as well even three days out.

[MississippiWx]

On the americanwx.com forums a couple of meteorologists there are saying that they don't expect the track to be as far east as the gfs. So take that as you will.

At Day 5, the GFS is only slightly east compared to the previous run and very similar to the past 3 or 4 runs. Not sure why everyone here is acting like anyone is in the clear. There is a whole lot of ridging to the north of Flo for the next several days. Even if she doesn’t hit land initially, what the GFS is showing with the stall is concerning. It means there isn’t much to pull Flo away. 100-200 mile swings at Day 5 is very common. You’d be wise to pay extreme attention. Odds still favor a direct hit.

[MrJames]

Been busy tonight. Anyone have the ukmet

Big shift N

[Happy Pelican]

Been busy tonight. Anyone have the ukmet

Big shift N

Yikes. In my opinion, the northeast is still very much in play and this is going to be a forecasting nightmare.

[tolakram]

Error plot. Try to ignore the fact that the GFS (AVNO) is out performing that one other model.

[PandaCitrus]

For those of you saying the all clear with the last GFS run, please look at this animation. 72 hours of 100+ kt winds for the Outer Banks with at least 6 different storm surge cycles.

 https://twitter.com/twc_allen/status/1038648999258087425

[PTrackerLA]

I've never seen rainfall totals so high on a model on our side of the planet:

[Evenstar]

I've never seen rainfall totals so high on a model on our side of the planet:

I live in the Tidewater area of Virginia and this scenario is downright horrifying.

[Blinhart]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... 06_ens.gif

So there is still some ensembles that go into Florida and Georgia, so nothing is out of the question.

[tolakram]

I've never seen rainfall totals so high on a model on our side of the planet:

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/ruDcciJ.png[/img]

I live in the Tidewater area of Virginia and this scenario is downright horrifying.

**Mods, sorry for leaving the image in the post, but I can't figure out how to delete it without screwing up the entire quote.***

Just put a space in the img tag like I did. Easiest way

[meriland29]

Im just not buying this slightly off shore then eventually out scenario the GFS is on.

[meriland29]

Remember GFS can't depict upwelling.

Does upwelling significantly impact the direction of the system?

[TheDreamTraveler]

Thought this was interesting and worth sharing about the NHC since some might not know.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038625003967852544

[tolakram]

Hey all.

Remember people in the path of this storm are nervous. Just let some of the comments go, and never ever attack someone for what they said. If a post is that offensive report it and move on.

[p1nheadlarry]

It would be right over the Gulf Stream at this point with among the highest oceanic heat content in the Atlantic and continually refreshed water. I'm not sure upwelling will be as significant as you may think.

Land interaction though, as well as baroclinic instability on top of the upwelling and the fact that the shelf is fairly close to Hatteras (Gets deeper there)... not saying a storm can't bomb out there but sub 910 is left field imo

[p1nheadlarry]

The low SLP bias of the gfs above 25N for Hs continues to be a joke.

Any chance that bias could also explain the east bias to the tracks? I remember it being well east of Florida with Irma as well even three days out.

Also wonder how muck the lack of ocean coupling affects it in this situation.

[p1nheadlarry]

Alright this run is garbage from here on out. 54 hours stalled in the same position and still maintaining major hurricane status??? Give me a break GFS.

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GFS is better at track than intensity IMO. Focus on the track, not the intensity.

Intensity affects the track though.

[Steve]

It would be right over the Gulf Stream at this point with among the highest oceanic heat content in the Atlantic and continually refreshed water. I'm not sure upwelling will be as significant as you may think.

Land interaction though, as well as baroclinic instability on top of the upwelling and the fact that the shelf is fairly close to Hatteras (Gets deeper there)... not saying a storm can't bomb out there but sub 910 is left field imo

Agreed pinheadlarry. What gives me a little pause with it was that it overdid Harvey as well - sub 900 I think. It was probably 30-40mb too low. but once it latched onto the severe deepening, it went all in. I’m not a fan of its track, and despite it being #1 so far, I don’t think it will end up being right. I like the idea of a landfall in nc and slow movement inland but not a 3 day stall.

[HurricaneEric]

00z Euro. Looks like due west movement from Init-24hr frame.




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