ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[USTropics]

I didn't realize they posted those VDMs until thet completed all data for flight...

I'm not sure the protocol, but I know for sure that VDM was from 5AM (09:00:00Z tag on the bottom) from AF306 Mission #13, which is about to make another SW to NE pass here. The current VDM came out after the first pass from NOAA2 1414A at 09:52:06Z (5:52am) and is currently setting up for another pass.

[tolakram]

I didn't realize they posted those VDMs until thet completed all data for flight...

I'm not sure the protocol, but I know for sure that VDM was from 5AM (09:00:00Z tag on the bottom) from AF306 Mission #13, which is about to make another SW to NE pass here.

VDM's are sent after every center pass, usually arriving about 10 to 15 minutes later.

[NDG]

Saved radar loop

[cjrciadt]

I think it's interesting that this is at the same latitude as Leslie.

They will be at the same Longitude in about five days?

[Nimbus]

I normally don’t wobble watch but looking at radar Michael appears to ever so slightly be trying to make the NNE turn. At this point it would have to go NNE to LF at Panama/Laguna and more NE to Port St Joe.

That is what some people that decided to ride it out will have to do, looks like west of 87 degrees longitude it will be safer to stay unless you are not above the 5 ft to 9 ft flood surge.

[ObsessedMiami]

My brother just built a home on property in the Bristol/Blountstown area after moving from Hollywood, FL to get away from hurricanes. Looks like the right eyewall may go right over him.
Remember, when the Weather Channel says it will hit “sparsely populated areas”, there are still a lot of people there.

[NDG]

Just wow!!! At least 936mb

104530 2843N 08617W 6961 02588 9335 +178 +131 230036 038 037 000 00

[Hayabusa]

143 knots, according to ADT, Michael has been a cat 5 for 8 hours already but recon has yet to observe this estimate.
2018OCT10 100038 7.1 911.6 143.0 7.1 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.70 -75.98 EYE 11 IR 57.0 28.66 86.46 ARCHER GOES16 35.7

[meriland29]

Okay thanks for the explanation. I was really surprised to see that drop, hoping it wasnt getting worse. Watching this thing religiously. I cant believe my eyes on it..just look at this monster!

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/1049965298454077440

[wx98]

Recon doing a loop in the eye atm...

[tolakram]

143 knots, according to ADT, Michael has been a cat 5 for 8 hours already but recon has yet to observe this estimate.
2018OCT10 100038 7.1 911.6 143.0 7.1 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.70 -75.98 EYE 11 IR 57.0 28.66 86.46 ARCHER GOES16 35.7

ADT has been constantly over-estimating strength.

[USTropics]

Looks like recon couldn't get into the NE quad, likely too much vertical wind bursts to risk it, pressuring is still falling though, 934/933mb:

[meriland29]

How much closer to land until it starts weakening or destabilizing ?

[USTropics]

How much closer to land until it starts weakening or destabilizing ?

All indications are it will not weaken before landfall. The NHC also stated that in their 5AM discussion:

Additional strengthening is expected before landfall as Michael
remains over warm water and in an environment of light to moderate
vertical shear.

[meriland29]

Looks like recon couldn't get into the NE quad, likely too much vertical wind bursts to risk it, pressuring is still falling though, 934/933mb:

https://i.imgur.com/BW3FL0u.png

Does that mean an honest reading for max winds can't be had for that flight?

[tolakram]

How much closer to land until it starts weakening or destabilizing ?

Why do you assume this will happen? Flow is from the south, air is warm and moist, water is very warm and deep until just offshore. All reliable intensity models show strengthening right up until landfall.

[GCANE]

How much closer to land until it starts weakening or destabilizing ?

There is a hot pool of water just off the coast.
No convective inhibition over land.
Entraining very unstable air.

Its not going to weaken.

[jdjaguar]

How much closer to land until it starts weakening or destabilizing ?

Sadly, Not until it moves inland.
Michaels pressure is still dropping and we are hours away from landfall

[meriland29]

How much closer to land until it starts weakening or destabilizing ?

Why do you assume this will happen? Flow is from the south, air is warm and moist, water is very warm and deep until just offshore. All reliable intensity models show strengthening right up until landfall.

Cause land interaction induces weakening. He isn't far from the coast, I was just wondering if the effects would only show once his actual eye is over land or before...