ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
600 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...6 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE OF THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

NOAA buoy 42039, located about 90 miles (145 km) south-southwest
of Panama City, Florida, recently reported sustained winds
of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h). A wind
gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported at Apalachicola
Regional Airport.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 86.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1049962368569085953

[Nimbus]

How much closer to land until it starts weakening or destabilizing ?

NHC isn't forecasting that, it was about a 1 in 10 wishcast that we get an EWRC.

[USTropics]

Looks like recon couldn't get into the NE quad, likely too much vertical wind bursts to risk it, pressuring is still falling though, 934/933mb:

https://i.imgur.com/BW3FL0u.png

Does that mean an honest reading for max winds can't be had for that flight?

No it means Michael is so strong that he is creating vertical wind bursts in the NE quadrant. Normally we see horizontal winds in a hurricane, but in very intense hurricanes (strong Cat4/Cat5s) we get these vertical wind burts, and via friction we have an electrical field (hence the lightning in the eyewall). These down/up drafts are extremely dangerous to fly through for recon. Essentially recon is using onboard radar to try and find a break to fly through, if they don't like it, they just simply make a loop inside the eye like they just did.

[KWT]

The con in the eye probably search in for the lowest pressure which likely being whipped around. Next set will show NE quadrant.

Almost certainly sub 935mbs now though.

[xironman]

Clean 125kt SFMR

[wx98]

931.7 extrapolated pressure from recon. Most likely sub 935 now.

[GCANE]

Looks like a big mesovort on the NE eyewall

[TheStormExpert]

Well, for Florence if you include the deaths from the flooding I think it was 51, so hype could be a stretch.

It also doesn’t help when you have a certain someone on Twitter downplaying this big time!

Really who could be that stupid? No wonder I am not on Twitter. With a strengthening cat 4 if there vortices in the eyewall they can complete wipe out wooden structures. A rare occasion where the wind is almost a dangerous as the water.

I’m just hoping those that are staying didn’t take his advice.

[KWT]

Clean 125kt SFMR

Yep backed up by flight level winds shortly before of 118kts. Justifies rising winds to 125kts.

Pressure still dropping like a stone, probably going to be sub 930 by landfall.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1049971876959784960

[tolakram]

How much closer to land until it starts weakening or destabilizing ?

Why do you assume this will happen? Flow is from the south, air is warm and moist, water is very warm and deep until just offshore. All reliable intensity models show strengthening right up until landfall.

Cause land interaction induces weakening. He isn't far from the coast, I was just wondering if the effects would only show once his actual eye is over land or before...

Weakening happens once the eye is onshore, until then it all depends on the surrounding environment. We had some posters on here last night making claims that the continental air mass would induce weakening. There was no science behind those statements.

[AlabamaDave]

Such a horrible situation. The best we can hope for is landfall east of Panama City so that the most populated areas don't take the full blow of the core winds. Thankfully it stays far enough west of Tallahassee to keep them from experiencing the worst case for that area.

[Ntxw]

143 knots, according to ADT, Michael has been a cat 5 for 8 hours already but recon has yet to observe this estimate.
2018OCT10 100038 7.1 911.6 143.0 7.1 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.70 -75.98 EYE 11 IR 57.0 28.66 86.46 ARCHER GOES16 35.7

ADT has been constantly over-estimating strength.

I think the culprit is ADT, in this case, really likes the deep convection. Any eye with that is enough for it. But Michael's eye so far has not been clean and clear WMG that goes with a true T7.0 at least not yet.

But this is still an extremely dangerous storm. Probably ends up one of the strongest hits on the US mainland, in my opinion.

[USTropics]

The center is now ~84 miles and still slightly SSW of Panama City Beach. Stair stepping/wobbles becomes increasingly more important now:

[hurricaneCW]

Such a horrible situation. The best we can hope for is landfall east of Panama City so that the most populated areas don't take the full blow of the core winds. Thankfully it stays far enough west of Tallahassee to keep them from experiencing the worst case for that area.

We can hope though a lot of people will still be affected big time. I think those 9-13' surge forecasts are probably too low. Some areas will see 15'+ surge.

[GCANE]

The center is now ~84 miles and still slightly SSW of Panama City Beach. Stair stepping/wobbles becomes increasingly more important now:

https://i.imgur.com/hTJJZTs.jpg

That mesovort I saw on IR is also being tagged on radar.

[KWT]

Looks like a reasonable change for Panama to get the egewall, what quadrant t still a little too early to say but needs close watching.

[PTPatrick]

Yes from a scale of damage standpoint if you have to have a at 4 or 5 strike anywhere this is one of the few spots where a storm can thread the needle without hitting a major population center. Gut feeling is Panama City Proper stays on the western eyewall, but they will certainly have damage. Gulf, liberty and Calhoun stand to take most of the right front quadrant...some of the least populated counties in the state save for Glades and a couple others around the big bend. Again, that’s no consolation to the folks that do live there. But if Leon or escambia county was about to be raked by a high end cat 4 eye wall there would be mass destruction

I mean it’s location location location...had Harvey landed a few miles south the story would much different that rockports destruction followed by a Houston flood as corpus would have been a complete mess.

[txwatcher91]

135kts FL as NOAA plane enters eastern eyewall...Michael is making a run for cat 5 and it’s going to be close.