ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

Given the angle of approach, the forecast intensity could be wildly different based on slight track changes. If on the right envelope, it might only get to 40-45 kt or so. If on the left envelope, it could easily become a hurricane (deeper warm water + less land interaction)

[Tireman4]

We have a ways to go and a long time to discuss. It is that time of year, ladies and gentlemen.

[Aric Dunn]

Things are popping up right around that mid level circ..

[chaser1]

i going out too i look update when i get home too

Your birthday too?

[jaguars_22]

Blinhart I think Texas is ok with all these latest runs... high pressure looks weak to protect us in middle texas

[KimmieLa]

This isn’t far from developing a surface reflection if not there already. I see no storm outflows to the west or south of this now so at least 3k ft or more above the surface we have a circulation in my opinion. If the current trend holds the rest of today this could become TD7 sometime tonight.

Agree, the only impacts in S. Florida will be some rain tomorrow. However, it's likely going to be a 40-45 mph TS when it reaches SE LA. No TS sustained winds in New Orleans or BTR, just rain.

Thanks Wxman57, that is good to know. I am more concerned with the amount of rain it could drop. Hopefully, it will be a fast mover and get out quickly. I will certainly wave to possible Gordon as he passes by.

[tolakram]

New convection with some turning again.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=1029&y=1058.5&z=2&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[AxaltaRacing24]

18z GFS hardly makes this into a depression at peak “strength.” Never does consolidate the vort until right before landfall.

it’s not handling the system correctly. no way it doesn’t form into a tropical storm.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah, all that new convection is rotating..

[Frank2]

Great 1 km view from the CIMSS site - not very well organized at present:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

[RL3AO]

The lower levels are showing more signs of life. I think it's still at least 12 to 24 hours away from being a TD.

[boca]

Why isn’t the Miami NWS discussion updating?

[KimmieLa]

I'm thinking this will be a much stronger system than many think. Just hoping it doesn't just come up to just South of New Orleans and then decide to move West and never come into land until Central Texas Coast.

Here in Louisiana, we have always heard that you never want a TC coming up the mouth of the Mississippi River. It looks to be forecasted at this point to do just that. Hoping all ends up well, no matter where it heads.

[chaser1]

New convection with some turning again.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=1029&y=1058.5&z=2&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Loop seems to be "jumpy"? Maybe some slight repositioning of the satellite?

[bella_may]

Tropical weather statements just popped up here in mobile

[sphelps8681]

The latest from Levi!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ Sorry don't know how to post videos.

[tolakram]

Use the share link from the YouTube video and paste between the tags.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/zCY3Jg9va-g[/youtube]

[chaser1]

Anyone have links to any Andros Island obs or wind readings?

[Blown Away]

Global models not enthusiastic on 7 being no more than TD/Low end TS...

[tolakram]

SLIDER Shortwave: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=1053&y=966&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=6&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider