ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[toad strangler]

Well trends did not go my way overnight

Unfortunately not, but that's why you made sure to prepare early. Stay safe!

Being in tarheel's position before, it gets down to splitting hairs on accepting what are "hopefull" signs. At this point, it's all about staying out of the eyewalls general vicinity. If I was a guy on OBX I would see the Euro as a positive even though you are NE of the center you are OUT of the center. That's the general mindset I had when it became clear Irma was coming. Stay out of the eyewall. Hurricane Stress ... not fun.

[p1nheadlarry]

Re: FV3-GFS

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038757320203882498

Dr Masters on wunderground says otherwise, but maybe he meant the overall track error.

[tolakram]

6Z GFS closeup

[KWT]

As much as I think th e GFS hasn't been great so far, it's still to early to say it's wrong...plenty of time for an unlikely large shift East.

[Kazmit]

6Z GFS closeup
https://i.imgur.com/kThgNuD.gif

That is a massive hurricane.

[Blown Away]

06z Navgem… Turns W towards FL/GA at 144 hrs...

[ronjon]

As much as I think th e GFS hasn't been great so far, it's still to early to say it's wrong...plenty of time for an unlikely large shift East.

Sure in theory but the synoptic set up makes the odds of an OTS scenario extremely low.

[tolakram]

6Z HWRF

[Ken711]

06z Navgem… Turns W towards FL/GA at 144 hrs...

Is this model used in the NHC blend?

[hurricaneCW]

As much as I think th e GFS hasn't been great so far, it's still to early to say it's wrong...plenty of time for an unlikely large shift East.

The consensus is really tight for the 5 day forecast, large shifts are highly unlikely. Even if the storm goes further east like the Gfs shows, it still gets pushed westward in the end.

[reds37win]

06z Navgem… Turns W towards FL/GA at 144 hrs...

Is the NAVGEM hinting at a Fujiwara effect?

[tolakram]

NAVGEM is rarely correct.

[plasticup]

Everyone is posting gifs of the landfall, but I think it's worth pointing out that most models also stall the storm immediately after landfall. Slower storm = more time with hurricane force winds, and stalled storm = massive flooding.

Or if the stall happens just offshore, we'll get to see crazy-ass storm surge.

[toad strangler]

Everyone is posting gifs of the landfall, but I think it's worth pointing out that most models also stall the storm immediately after landfall. Slower storm = more time with hurricane force winds, and stalled storm = massive flooding.

Deep storms tend to loose their punch quickly (depending on location of course) once landfalling as opposed to Cat 1 /2 type already at higher pressures. So at this latitude combined with ingesting continental air a SOLID landfall that moves fully inland should spin down much quicker than that 975mb plus storm would.

[tolakram]

6Z HMON

[dspguy]

Hurricane Stress ... not fun.

Yeah, I'm up every morning at like 3am EST looking at the latest EURO and GFS, among others. I wish I could choose to just ignore it at that time, but it keeps me up no matter what. Rather miserable. Then I come on here and get fresh reminders that the models may keep moving still.

[Blown Away]

6Z HMON

https://i.imgur.com/l6nfGCK.gif

Seems decent shift S with many 06z models?

[Aric Dunn]

Recon finds it down to 24.2N still losing latitude. Keep an eye out for continued wsw motion while this ridge builds in. Typically you see wsw ush motion . Today is key. Models will shift if florence dies not turn wnw.

[Blown Away]

Recon finds it down to 24.2N still losing latitude. Keep an eye out for continued wsw motion while this ridge builds in. Typically you see wsw ush motion . Today is key. Models will shift if florence dies not turn wnw.

Lol, recon & SAB will say that and NHC will put it at 24.6N...

[Ken711]

6Z HMON

https://i.imgur.com/l6nfGCK.gif

Seems decent shift S with many 06z models?

HWRF shifted N with the 06z.