ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2841 Postby dukeblue219 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:20 pm

bp92 wrote:A cousin of mine is currently working at Chapel Hill, NC. She comes from Colombia, so she has no clue of what she should expect from a hurricane, let alone something like Florence.

What should I tell her to expect, regarding evacuations and potential threats she will face? I presume mostly rain, since Chapel Hill is inland and Flo would likely be weak by the time it gets to her location )especially if it stalls before landfall), but I have no clue if she's at risk of flash flooding or something else.


Flash flooding is going to be highly-dependent on her exact location (as in, her neighborhood). She needs to listen to her local weather people or NWS broadcasts. That far inland is not "OMG you're getting wiped off the map" territory, but she could see a few days without power and could lose a tree. Honestly, if she's old enough to have lived through Hugo in 89 in Columbia then that's a good analogy. Get some groceries and gas, clean up the yard, listen to the local authorities, and be prepared to not leave the house for a little while. No need to panic unless there's specific reason that her house would be at risk (a creek in the backyard, dead tree overhanging the house, that kind of thing).
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2842 Postby hurricanedude » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:20 pm

Why is Hampton Roads being mentioned so much about surge if it makes landfall 2 states south?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2843 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:23 pm

hurricanedude wrote:Why is Hampton Roads being mentioned so much about surge if it makes landfall 2 states south?


It's going to have a very large wind field. Even when Katrina made landfall in LA and far western MS, it produced a 14 foot storm surge in Mobile Bay (about 100 miles away) and a decent surge on the Florida Panhandle (about 200 miles away).
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2844 Postby StormPyrate » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:23 pm

hurricanedude wrote:Why is Hampton Roads being mentioned so much about surge if it makes landfall 2 states south?

topology and the fact it is in a bay open to the ocean I suspect
seems I remember it prone to flooding
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2845 Postby hurricanedude » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:24 pm

8 feet is the record here with isabel...can we reach that?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2846 Postby weunice » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:28 pm

bp92 wrote:A cousin of mine is currently working at Chapel Hill, NC. She comes from Colombia, so she has no clue of what she should expect from a hurricane, let alone something like Florence.

What should I tell her to expect, regarding evacuations and potential threats she will face? I presume mostly rain, since Chapel Hill is inland and Flo would likely be weak by the time it gets to her location (especially if it stalls before landfall), but I have no clue if she's at risk of flash flooding or something else.
Rain is a sneaky bad guy ... I have been through several hurricanes 60-90 miles inland with wind gusts as high as 90 mph. I have been through hurricanes that dropped numerous small tornadoes where you couldn't sleep because you were in a red polygon every few minutes. I have also been through a community altering flood that affected 75% of the structures in my area and 90% in the city limits of our city. The flood had a tremendous impact on a greater number of people than the other threats I have seen. This storm looks like it could produce both types of situations inland (winds and flooding). The flooding is not to be taken lightly and it is likely the greatest risk as far inland as Chapel Hill is. We just don't know where the greatest rainfall is going to setup.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2847 Postby psyclone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:28 pm

hurricanedude wrote:Why is Hampton Roads being mentioned so much about surge if it makes landfall 2 states south?


The high pressure to the north probably contributes to the hazard up there...tighter gradient over a long stretch of ocean= big waves and will stack up the water. The king tide cycle adds to the coastal water rise risk too...a rather unfortuante coincidence.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2848 Postby Vdogg » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:29 pm

hurricanedude wrote:Why is Hampton Roads being mentioned so much about surge if it makes landfall 2 states south?


1) North Carolina is one state south, not two.
2) We will be in the N to NE quandrant with high end tropical storm force winds and constant onshore flow.
3) We flood in a strong thunderstorm, and our low lying areas are vulnerable to storm surge and sea level rise. (Willoughby Spit, a highly populated area, was created by a hurricane centuries ago. Needless to say, they evacuated first (Zone A)).
4) Our area is riddled with bridges and tunnels. In powerful storms we are essentially cut off until it's safe to cross these structures again.

This is a very serious situation for HR, even with the current projected landfall.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2849 Postby hurricanedude » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:33 pm

I'm aware NC is 1 state south...but a lot of people think its hitting Sc...thats 2 states.....I live in Hampton so very aware of the hazards...just seems far away from the storm it seems
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2850 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:33 pm

dukeblue219 wrote:
bp92 wrote:A cousin of mine is currently working at Chapel Hill, NC. She comes from Colombia, so she has no clue of what she should expect from a hurricane, let alone something like Florence.

What should I tell her to expect, regarding evacuations and potential threats she will face? I presume mostly rain, since Chapel Hill is inland and Flo would likely be weak by the time it gets to her location )especially if it stalls before landfall), but I have no clue if she's at risk of flash flooding or something else.


...Honestly, if she's old enough to have lived through Hugo in 89 in Columbia then that's a good analogy...


I assume bp92 meant Colombia, the country in South America. They rarely get TC effects, maybe TS-force bands from super low latitude Caribbean storms like Matthew, and that only on the extreme north coast.

Freshwater flooding would be the only significant risk in Chapel Hill, so I'll defer to the other replies for advice on that.
Last edited by SconnieCane on Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2851 Postby jasons2k » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:35 pm

weunice wrote:
bp92 wrote:A cousin of mine is currently working at Chapel Hill, NC. She comes from Colombia, so she has no clue of what she should expect from a hurricane, let alone something like Florence.

What should I tell her to expect, regarding evacuations and potential threats she will face? I presume mostly rain, since Chapel Hill is inland and Flo would likely be weak by the time it gets to her location (especially if it stalls before landfall), but I have no clue if she's at risk of flash flooding or something else.
Rain is a sneaky bad guy ... I have been through several hurricanes 60-90 miles inland with wind gusts as high as 90 mph. I have been through hurricanes that dropped numerous small tornadoes where you couldn't sleep because you were in a red polygon every few minutes. I have also been through a community altering flood that affected 75% of the structures in my area and 90% in the city limits of our city. The flood had a tremendous impact on a greater number of people than the other threats I have seen. This storm looks like it could produce both types of situations inland (winds and flooding). The flooding is not to be taken lightly and it is likely the greatest risk as far inland as Chapel Hill is. We just don't know where the greatest rainfall is going to setup.


Indeed.

The most fatalities from Tropical Cycles are the result of inland flooding, not wind or surge. It is not a threat to be taken lightly.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2852 Postby dukeblue219 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:37 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
dukeblue219 wrote:
bp92 wrote:A cousin of mine is currently working at Chapel Hill, NC. She comes from Colombia, so she has no clue of what she should expect from a hurricane, let alone something like Florence.

What should I tell her to expect, regarding evacuations and potential threats she will face? I presume mostly rain, since Chapel Hill is inland and Flo would likely be weak by the time it gets to her location )especially if it stalls before landfall), but I have no clue if she's at risk of flash flooding or something else.


...Honestly, if she's old enough to have lived through Hugo in 89 in Columbia then that's a good analogy...


I assume bp92 meant Colombia, the country in South America. They rarely get TC effects, maybe TS-force bands from super low latitude Caribbean storms like Matthew.


Ha, I totally missed the spelling. In that case, double my emphasis on local authorities. Scratch the Hugo part!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2853 Postby EmeraldCoast1 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:39 pm

I lived in Jacksonville, NC for over 10 years in the 70's and 80's and we went through plenty of storms. I think David and Gloria were among them. They were serious but not life-changers. What I worry about for those folks living there now is the ENVIRONMENTAL condition of the area...there has not been a storm like this in decades to make a direct, hard hitting, east to west landfall at Cat.3 or more intensity. There are tens of thousands of big pine trees that will come down and do lots of damage to structures because they have not been "tested" or "tempered" in their lifetimes.

I witnessed this during the fairly weak, direct strike of hurricane Erin here in Pensacola in 1994. Small storm, direct hit, but lots of damage from pine trees that had never been tested.

This could very well be a lifetime event for those in Wilmington to Emerald Isle. Hope for the best, prepare for the worse. Watch out for those big pine trees coming down on your homes!!!!!
Last edited by EmeraldCoast1 on Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2854 Postby meriland29 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:39 pm

Would anyone be kind enough to give me an update on her? My phone is not working properly and I like trying to keep up to date on her. How's her strength and that previous dry air intrusion?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2855 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:39 pm

Recon barometer went out it looks like.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2856 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:40 pm

Hammy wrote:Recon barometer went out it looks like.


Yep I had to look at the earlier extrapolations and heights. I got 942 with the calculations.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2857 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:41 pm

hurricanedude wrote:I'm aware NC is 1 state south...but a lot of people think its hitting Sc...thats 2 states.....I live in Hampton so very aware of the hazards...just seems far away from the storm it seems


It is because Flo comes in by North Carolina before stalling and heading SW to South Carolina, you will have the Surge just building on top of it self for days on end with the waves just adding on top of it.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2858 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:43 pm

weunice wrote:
bp92 wrote:A cousin of mine is currently working at Chapel Hill, NC. She comes from Colombia, so she has no clue of what she should expect from a hurricane, let alone something like Florence.

What should I tell her to expect, regarding evacuations and potential threats she will face? I presume mostly rain, since Chapel Hill is inland and Flo would likely be weak by the time it gets to her location (especially if it stalls before landfall), but I have no clue if she's at risk of flash flooding or something else.
Rain is a sneaky bad guy ... I have been through several hurricanes 60-90 miles inland with wind gusts as high as 90 mph. I have been through hurricanes that dropped numerous small tornadoes where you couldn't sleep because you were in a red polygon every few minutes. I have also been through a community altering flood that affected 75% of the structures in my area and 90% in the city limits of our city. The flood had a tremendous impact on a greater number of people than the other threats I have seen. This storm looks like it could produce both types of situations inland (winds and flooding). The flooding is not to be taken lightly and it is likely the greatest risk as far inland as Chapel Hill is. We just don't know where the greatest rainfall is going to setup.


If she is working for UNC, listen to the Dean. I'm sure they have Brick Buildings that are on the top of hills that they will be using as shelters for those that lose power and water.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2859 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:44 pm

hurricanedude wrote:I'm aware NC is 1 state south...but a lot of people think its hitting Sc...thats 2 states.....I live in Hampton so very aware of the hazards...just seems far away from the storm it seems


It is. And hopefully it will stay far enough to the south to not have a severe impact with the onshore flow. There’s going to be a ton of water piling up especially if it sits near or offshore for 3 days. Surge will make some areas pay.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2860 Postby bp92 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:45 pm

dukeblue219 wrote:
bp92 wrote:A cousin of mine is currently working at Chapel Hill, NC. She comes from Colombia, so she has no clue of what she should expect from a hurricane, let alone something like Florence.

What should I tell her to expect, regarding evacuations and potential threats she will face? I presume mostly rain, since Chapel Hill is inland and Flo would likely be weak by the time it gets to her location )especially if it stalls before landfall), but I have no clue if she's at risk of flash flooding or something else.


Flash flooding is going to be highly-dependent on her exact location (as in, her neighborhood). She needs to listen to her local weather people or NWS broadcasts. That far inland is not "OMG you're getting wiped off the map" territory, but she could see a few days without power and could lose a tree. Honestly, if she's old enough to have lived through Hugo in 89 in Columbia then that's a good analogy. Get some groceries and gas, clean up the yard, listen to the local authorities, and be prepared to not leave the house for a little while. No need to panic unless there's specific reason that her house would be at risk (a creek in the backyard, dead tree overhanging the house, that kind of thing).


Colombia as in the South American country, not the US district :wink: . Pretty much zero hurricane experience down here (closest thing was Joan '88 I think, but she was born well after that anyway). She just moved to the US last month, too.

Thanks for the advice, though. I hope it all goes well.
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