ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Blinhart
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Recon Discussion

#2861 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:45 pm

Can someone please post graphics of where the plane is on the radar?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2862 Postby Vdogg » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:54 pm

hurricanedude wrote:I'm aware NC is 1 state south...but a lot of people think its hitting Sc...thats 2 states.....I live in Hampton so very aware of the hazards...just seems far away from the storm it seems

People are doing a little -removed- there. The south solutions occur outside the 3 day cone and are far from set in stone. All the models agree on an initial landfall or near landfall somewhere between NC/SC border and OBX and a stall. With an expanding wind field, there is simply no way we're escaping effects from this storm unless there has been some catastrophic model failure 3 days out.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2863 Postby Rail Dawg » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:56 pm

Ok after 2 days of driving from Houston I’ve made my stand here in an 8-story parking garage in Wilmington, North Carolina.

The truck is loaded for bear and is currently 60 feet above the street. It is well-protected and as a last-ditch emergency move the stairwells are fully enclosed. Complete protection.

Going to watch like all of you the final tracking of Miss Florence.

Will report on here what I observe.

Thanks everyone.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Advisories

#2864 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:56 pm

TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES




Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Florence's eye became a little ragged in appearance on satellite
images a couple of hours ago, but recently it has become better
defined. There has also been a little cooling of the tops
surrounding the eye. These features suggest that Florence is
maintaining its intensity. The current intensity is kept at 120
kt, which is a little above the adjusted flight-level winds from
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and a little below the latest
SATCON estimate from UW-CIMSS. Over the next couple of days, the
hurricane is expected to move over a warm ocean and through an
environment of low vertical shear. This would allow some
additional strengthening until about 48 hours. From that time
and up to landfall, the global models suggest some increase in shear
which would cause some weakening. However, Florence is still likely
to remain a dangerous major hurricane when its center crosses the
coast. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the
Decay-SHIPS and ICON intensity model consensus.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the northeast should continue to steer Florence
on a west-northwestward to northwestward heading until the
hurricane nears the coast. The steering pattern from 72 hours and
beyond becomes more complicated and uncertain. The latest GFS
model run shows a mid-level ridge building over the east-central
United States in 3-4 days. This temporarily blocks the forward
progress of the hurricane and forces a southwesterly turn in the
model run. Later in the period, the ridge rebuilds to the north of
Florence allowing the system to move inland. The official track
forecast is somewhat to the left of the previous NHC track, but to
the right of the latest consensus predictions. It should be noted
that, due to increased model spread, there is substantial
uncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast.

It is important for users to realize that significant impacts extend
well away from the center of Florence, and serious hazards such as
a dangerous storm surge and flooding rains will cover a large area
regardless of exactly where the center moves.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All
interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should
complete preparations and follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as
Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and
moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
has been issued for a part of this area. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 28.4N 68.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 31.4N 73.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 32.9N 75.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 33.8N 76.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 34.3N 78.2W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
96H 16/0000Z 34.3N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/0000Z 34.9N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2865 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:58 pm

I'm very surprised the NHC didnt increase hurricane radius...recon shows different
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2866 Postby edu2703 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:59 pm

Image

INIT 12/0300Z 28.4N 68.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 31.4N 73.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 32.9N 75.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 33.8N 76.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 34.3N 78.2W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
96H 16/0000Z 34.3N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/0000Z 34.9N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2867 Postby GTStorm » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:02 pm

edu2703 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/wWL7xNj.png

INIT 12/0300Z 28.4N 68.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 31.4N 73.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 32.9N 75.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 33.8N 76.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 34.3N 78.2W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
96H 16/0000Z 34.3N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/0000Z 34.9N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND


interesting...looks like they're not going overboard with the recent sw trend.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2868 Postby Raebie » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:03 pm

Rail Dawg wrote:Ok after 2 days of driving from Houston I’ve made my stand here in an 8-story parking garage in Wilmington, North Carolina.

The truck is loaded for bear and is currently 60 feet above the street. It is well-protected and as a last-ditch emergency move the stairwells are fully enclosed. Complete protection.

Going to watch like all of you the final tracking of Miss Florence.

Will report on here what I observe.

Thanks everyone.


Stay safe! Might ask you to check on my house once she blows through. Lol.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2869 Postby ncbird » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:04 pm

bp92 wrote:A cousin of mine is currently working at Chapel Hill, NC. She comes from Colombia, so she has no clue of what she should expect from a hurricane, let alone something like Florence.

What should I tell her to expect, regarding evacuations and potential threats she will face? I presume mostly rain, since Chapel Hill is inland and Flo would likely be weak by the time it gets to her location (especially if it stalls before landfall), but I have no clue if she's at risk of flash flooding or something else.


If she is at the University
https://alertcarolina.unc.edu/

National Weather Service for Chapel Hill
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Chapel+Hill&state=NC&site=RAH&lat=35.9276&lon=-79.0406&TextType=2
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2870 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:06 pm

drezee wrote:I'm very surprised the NHC didnt increase hurricane radius...recon shows different


Agreed, I'd say it is larger (and the intensity lower, I'd go with 110 kt but also I would be mindful that lowering now might create a case of "dropping the guard"). In reality, Florence is probably a cat 3 right now, but that would create communication issues.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2871 Postby PTPatrick » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:09 pm

regarding staying...I am of the camp that too many people evacuate these days, to avoid discomfort, not deal with cabin fever children, etc but often the people that need to, don't. Peoples experience generally clouds judgement. this storm really doesn't compare with anything except maybe Diana. The trouble with using your experience to guide your hurricane plan is that if you are LUCKY, the big one comes but once in a lifetime for a given town. So that house you road out 3 storms in the 60s in may not be a match for the storm that hits with just the right trajectory, with the eyewall or combination of conditions to cause problems. Many a Mississippian THOUGHT that Camille was their once in a lifetime devastation, only to have Katrinas wall of water make a fool out of them. I suspect some folks that went through Hazel and Fran might do the same and regret it, and yet most will be fine.

I still shutter to think the storms that my family stayed in a flood plane for as a kid growing up. We were "safe", because the house or school stayed dry during this storm or that, they'd survived Frederic and Elena direct hits. Then Georges came and we had the realization of what the right storm in the right spot could do, and seemingly innocuous cat 2 put most of my community under water including areas that never saw water come close, even in Camille. Many of those storms that we lucked out on, could have easily turned very bad for us if they didn't take that last minute turn or come from a good angle (talking boat rescues, in the best scenarios). My family never stayed in the flood plane again after Georges for anything above cat 1, and have even left for some of those. With sea level rise and damage to pine savannas from all the storms, it just seems that minimal storms bring more water than they used to.

Not sure what my point was except to say, if you live near water on the coast of NC or SC and you plan to stay, you better be darn confident in the ability of your home to stay standing, high and dry, with a roof and windows, and no trees on it, after being parked for 72 hrs in the right front quadrant of a category 3 hurricane.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2872 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:10 pm

24H 13/0000Z 31.4N 73.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
This is the closest I have seen the NHC get to Cat 5 for a system that hasn't gotten to Cat 5 before.

On the shift to the South, they moved it like I thought just a little. I think they will move it like 20 to 40 miles each main advisory.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2873 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:13 pm

Rail Dawg wrote:Ok after 2 days of driving from Houston I’ve made my stand here in an 8-story parking garage in Wilmington, North Carolina.

The truck is loaded for bear and is currently 60 feet above the street. It is well-protected and as a last-ditch emergency move the stairwells are fully enclosed. Complete protection.

Going to watch like all of you the final tracking of Miss Florence.

Will report on here what I observe.

Thanks everyone.


Are you in one of the parking garages downtown? Be prepared to be there for a while. The block lower from most of those decks floods with a lot less rain predicted. If it is the PPD parking deck, it will be an island
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Diana X2 (look it up), Bertha, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, Dennis, Charley, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene, Matthew, And Florence

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2874 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:16 pm

Blinhart wrote:24H 13/0000Z 31.4N 73.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
This is the closest I have seen the NHC get to Cat 5 for a system that hasn't gotten to Cat 5 before.

On the shift to the South, they moved it like I thought just a little. I think they will move it like 20 to 40 miles each main advisory.


That would be the strongest storm ever in the Atlantic basin north of 31°N (the Gulf doesn't go past that latitude). The current record holder is Helene 1958 (130 kt at 32.7°N).
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2875 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:19 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:24H 13/0000Z 31.4N 73.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
This is the closest I have seen the NHC get to Cat 5 for a system that hasn't gotten to Cat 5 before.

On the shift to the South, they moved it like I thought just a little. I think they will move it like 20 to 40 miles each main advisory.


That would be the strongest storm ever in the Atlantic basin north of 31°N (the Gulf doesn't go past that latitude). The current record holder is Helene 1958 (130 kt at 32.7°N).


That's what happens with it going over the Gulf Stream.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2876 Postby PandaCitrus » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:19 pm

The eye looks strange on satellite the last hour, almost like it is rotating within a larger eye, perhaps part of the beginning of the next eyewall replacement cycle microwave is indicating has started.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2877 Postby artist » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:23 pm

hurricanedude wrote:8 feet is the record here with isabel...can we reach that?

They are predicting 3-5 ft at Virginia Beach as of now, starting tomorrow afternoon.


STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 3-5 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Begins early Wednesday afternoon

- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
greater than 3 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should
soon be brought to completion before conditions become
unsafe.
- ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or
needlessly risk lives.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2878 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:31 pm

At this point the chance of Florence reaching the 135kt forecast intensity has decreased quite a bit. The upcoming EWRC may create a large ragged eye that won't support extreme windspeed but comes with a much larger hurricane force windfield. Florence would still be a destructive hurricane near NC and brings hurricane force winds well onshore even if center stalls offshore as some model showed.

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2879 Postby Hurrilurker » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:34 pm

I've been looking at a buoy (41002) that is more or less in the path of Florence, about 2/3 of the way between Florence and the shoreline. Even though the buoy is still ~250 miles from the outermost outflow bands and >400 miles from the eye of Florence, you can already see the wave heights increasing dramatically, from less than 3 feet to over 7 feet.

Now I'm not sure if this is all due to Florence, maybe there are other factors at work (moon phase?), but can the water be "piling up" that far in front of it? Anyway, it'll be interesting to keep an eye on this buoy in the next few days.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2880 Postby meriland29 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:40 pm

supercane4867 wrote:At this point the chance of Florence reaching the 135kt forecast intensity has decreased quite a bit. The upcoming EWRC may create a large ragged eye that won't support extreme windspeed but comes with a much larger hurricane force windfield. Florence would still be a destructive hurricane near NC and brings hurricane force winds well onshore even if center stalls offshore as some model showed.

https://i.imgur.com/Lwp9v8Z.jpg



I thought the NHC just clarified she had a well defined eye ready to stre gthen?
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