ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Blow_Hard
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2901 Postby Blow_Hard » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:51 am

panamatropicwatch wrote:
Blow_Hard wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:Now it comes down to wobbles whether downtown Panama City gets the storm surge or not. Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe and Apalachicola is not looking good.



Hey PTW...are you guys still in Bay County or did you evacuate. My wife and I are with her elderly parents in the Bylsma Manor subdivision. Just waiting, watching and praying.

Was able to convince them that discretion was the better part of valor. We got out!



My daughter and grandchildren decided to leave about midnight. They are in Meridian, MS. We are hunkered down.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2902 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:51 am

DestinHurricane wrote:It turned only slightly nne, at that heading it looks to be headed for inlet beach


If that happens, Panama City gets right-front-quadded. Historic disaster. :eek:
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2903 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:51 am

SHelter in place order now for Bay county. IF you haven't left by now....time to hunker down in place and NOT get on the roads.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2904 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:52 am

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2905 Postby chaser1 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:53 am

xironman wrote:
Texas Snowman wrote:@MikeWDross — Recon dropsonde measuring incredible winds aloft in the eye-wall. 176 MPH around 1k feet. 181 mph around 3k feet.


You don't want to be around when one of those mesovortices brings that down to the surface.


Holy crap :eek: That's the type of nightmare stuff that could effectively be moving on shore along Apalachee Bay area during the next 2 hours.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2906 Postby KWT » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:53 am

supercane4867 wrote:Eye drop has 936mb with 64kt winds. That indicates actual central pressure of 930mb

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7c5139fb320d59333af4867d1c3ba2443d8275a0de610bbc968bc4297471a06a.png


Wow, as you say that supports 930mbs central pressure, wonder if the NHC will go with that. Also agreed with others, the presentation is outrageous.

Also cat-5 winds aloft, those will likely come down with gusts in that NE eyewall.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2907 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:53 am

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2908 Postby sponger » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:55 am

https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/

Conditions beginning to deteriorate at the coast.
Last edited by sponger on Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2909 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:56 am

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2910 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:56 am

We just have not seen a storm this well developed this close to the Panhandle...sat presentation is absolutely incredible. Symmetrical eyewall, getting a stadium effect, pressures still dropping, gravity waves in all quads. Wow! Just so many structures in P-City close to the bays and older, pre- Fl hurricane code. Lots of mobile homes and such too. :eek:
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2911 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:57 am

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2912 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:57 am

KWT wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Eye drop has 936mb with 64kt winds. That indicates actual central pressure of 930mb

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7c5139fb320d59333af4867d1c3ba2443d8275a0de610bbc968bc4297471a06a.png


Wow, as you say that supports 930mbs central pressure, wonder if the NHC will go with that. Also agreed with others, the presentation is outrageous.

Also cat-5 winds aloft, those will likely come down with gusts in that NE eyewall.


If this thing still has 3-4 hours of water still and that pressure keeps dropping like that it might have just enough time to go Cat 5 :eek: Never thought I would see anything like this in my life. Absolute worst case scenario.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2913 Postby Rail Dawg » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:58 am

Just woke up in Big Truck here in Panama City.

Going to take a walk.

There are many people I bet have elected to stay but with 160mph gusts that is not a good decision.

I fully expect to be a part of the rescue but also expect to see some deaths here.

I’ll report back soon and appreciate all the images you all are posting.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2914 Postby michelinj » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:59 am

There is only one positive situation I can think of from this storm. The path has been just perfect to allow recon to fly in from Florida and New Orleans. We’ve had almost constant recon since it formed giving us valuable data to research future storms. Being a storm that has defied many obstacles it will be interesting to see how it got this strong and so we can see warning signs in the future.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2915 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:59 am

From a relevant FB group (not sure of accuracy)

Current FEMA US&R Resources are deployed for #HurricaneMichael
➡️ Red Incident Support Team
➡️ Tennessee TF #1 (Type 1)
➡️ Texas TF #1 (Type 1)
➡️ Pennsylvania TF #1 (Type 3)
➡️ New Jersey TF #1 (Type 3)
➡️ Indiana TF #1 (MRP-Water Res)
➡️ Ohio TF #1 (MRP-Water Res)
➡️ Virginia TF #1 (MRP-Water Res)
➡️ Virginia TF #2 (MRP-Water Res)
➡️ Missouri TF #1 (MRP-Water Res)
➡️ Maryland TF #1 (MRP-Water Res)
➡️ Texas TF #1 (HEPP)
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2916 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:59 am

KWT wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Eye drop has 936mb with 64kt winds. That indicates actual central pressure of 930mb

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7c5139fb320d59333af4867d1c3ba2443d8275a0de610bbc968bc4297471a06a.png


Wow, as you say that supports 930mbs central pressure, wonder if the NHC will go with that. Also agreed with others, the presentation is outrageous.

Also cat-5 winds aloft, those will likely come down with gusts in that NE eyewall.


Actual dropsonde from the same NOAA recon in the eye shows 934mb, pressure is holding steady the last couple of hours.

Image
Last edited by NDG on Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2917 Postby KWT » Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:00 am

Bit of eastwards motion in the last hour, hard to say whether it's just a wobbles or not, but may make a huge difference between Panama getting eyewall or not, or at least miss the NE eyewall
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2918 Postby MGC » Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:01 am

Rail Dawg wrote:Just woke up in Big Truck here in Panama City.

Going to take a walk.

There are many people I bet have elected to stay but with 160mph gusts that is not a good decision.

I fully expect to be a part of the rescue but also expect to see some deaths here.

I’ll report back soon and appreciate all the images you all are posting.


Stay safe Rail Dawg...don't become a statistic....MGC
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2919 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:02 am

otowntiger wrote:I fear that portions of the gulf coast around Panama City will look like Homestead back in '92. :eek:
yes, most of the area hasnt been built to the Miami-Dade code from post andrew...they dont get hit with majors so the old construction has remained and i can tell you there is plenty of it in the panhandle that will be no match for a major hurricane..new construction would struggle with a 4/5 but as you see in the Caribbean islands with the exception of Puerto Rico they generally dont build unless it can handle a major and they are consistently getting hit so only the strong survives and the stuff that doesn't gets rebuilt well...this will happen after michael but the sad truth is takes something like this get building upgraded as required by code..another issue is window protection, if you dont have it the wind gets inside and blows off the roof more easily and we will see that in this case, when you dont get hit by majors you get peeps not ready..expect structural damage like you havent seen in a long time

if there is something positive for the peeps and it isnt much but we have an election coming up in florida..the current governor of florida is running for senator and the mayor of tally is running for governor, these guys will be busting it with recovery efforts so their opponents can't make an issue out of it....the mayor of Chicago in the 70s lost an election because the snow removal effort was so weak...rick scott has been excellent with hurricane relief and gillun caught some flack in tally last time, the fact is there is a political situation at work here that might help the citizens a bit
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2920 Postby chaser1 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:02 am

sponger wrote:https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/

Conditions beginning to deteriorate at the coast.


First, saw box with live video but no audio. Tried 2nd link but got unsupportive brower pop up box. No other chasers supposedly streaming?
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