ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

With this and Harvey of last year we will have witnessed 2 of the most impressive looking (satellite appearance) hurricane strikes on the mainland US in the satellite era. Matched by only Andrew and Hugo as far as I can remember.

I think Charley also matches up quite well, that had a very tight strong inner core and was also near 5 when it hits.

[RL3AO]

https://i.imgur.com/5hVhHCR.jpg

Rank amateur but very interested in learning more here - could someone take a moment for a simple explanation of the two blobs that look like higher cloud tops to the east of and about parallel to the eye portend, if anything?

It's just overshooting tops from intense thunderstorms. The fact that they line up is pure coincidence.

[HurricaneEnzo]

With this and Harvey of last year we will have witnessed 2 of the most impressive looking (satellite appearance) hurricane strikes on the mainland US in the satellite era. Matched by only Andrew and Hugo as far as I can remember.

I think Charley also matches up quite well, that had a very tight strong inner core and was also near 5 when it hits.

You are right can't believe I forgot Charley!

[SconnieCane]

145 MPH at 7:00 CDT, intermediate advisory mentions "Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall."

[caneman]

Thinking my call of Port St. Joe to Appalachacola a couple of days ago will verify. Having lived on the West coast of Florida for 42 years, it almost always seems there is a right deviation of 20 to 40 miles from models. Maybe that will spare Panama City some of the worse. Not good for Port St. Joe, Appalachacola or Tallahassee though. My opinion only of course

[RL3AO]

You can easily pick out the mesovorticies in the pentagon shaped eyewall of Michael.

[NDG]

Pressure started dropping again!!

131330 2912N 08606W 6969 02517 9268 +178 +144 167034 036 035 001 00

[WeatherEmperor]

Pressure started dropping again!!

131330 2912N 08606W 6969 02517 9268 +178 +144 167034 036 035 001 00

Oooh no this is getting crazy! This could really make a run at Cat5. So sad


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[USTropics]

Basically we've had RI for over 24 hours, all the way to landfall now:

[sponger]

Pressure started dropping again!!

131330 2912N 08606W 6969 02517 9268 +178 +144 167034 036 035 001 00

She really wants 150 MPH. Just about out of time.

[supercane4867]

Extrap. 927mb. Getting close to Andrew territory

[cheezyWXguy]

Never thought I'd see the day where the NAM 3k was the closest to correct on forecasting intensity over the last 3 days. A blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while, right?

[EquusStorm]

Would be 6th most intense mainland US landfall on record at 926... scarcely fathomable

[RL3AO]

It'll probably need to get down to about 920mb for category 5. I can't believe a storm is still intensifying this close to the N GOM coast.

[LarryWx]

We’re now seeing what the unseasonably warm (likely record warm for so late in season) northern Gulf SSTs, due largely to unseasonable SE US heat Sep through early Oct, are doing to this storm.

[KWT]

Pressure started dropping again!!

131330 2912N 08606W 6969 02517 9268 +178 +144 167034 036 035 001 00

Jeez that is crazy deep now, and with 35kts still. Clearly looks like pressure has dropped below 930 now...

[GCANE]

You can easily pick out the mesovorticies in the pentagon shaped eyewall of Michael.

Strong Significant Tornado Parameter on the east quad.
This will likely come ashore this afternoon.

[Hurricane Andrew]

No SFMRs even close to 140kts yet (highest was 123). I doubt it makes Cat 5. I do think it will stay a 4 into landfall, however. I could be wrong. See disclaimer.

[jdjaguar]

Extrap. 927mb. Getting close to Andrew territory

Andrew was 922 as I recall.

[caneman]

It'll probably need to get down to about 920mb for category 5. I can't believe a storm is still intensifying this close to the N GOM coast.

Scary stuff. Looks like my namesake Michael will beretired. One for the record books. Hoping it hits an area less densely populated like Apilachicola State Forest. Would be a shame though as that beaufiful area would be devastated and flattened