ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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NDG
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2981 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:21 am

chris_fit wrote:Am I imagining things or does it look like the Hurricane Force Windfield grew? (Per recon)


Yes, hurricane force winds have expanded, at least to 120 miles in diameter, per SFMR, at flight level they have expanded even more.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2982 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:24 am

Definitely another ERC has started..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2983 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:24 am

She looks very good considering how far north she's getting. Remember that cloud tops decline the further north the system is.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2984 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:27 am

hurricaneCW wrote:She looks very good considering how far north she's getting. Remember that cloud tops decline the further north the system is.


yeah outflow is fantastic now. no signs of any real shear. once this ERC finishes it will have plenty of time to deepen per the models.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2985 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:29 am

chris_fit wrote:Am I imagining things or does it look like the Hurricane Force Windfield grew? (Per recon)


A persistent wind field that large is going to push a whole lot of water in front of it. It has been a long time since NC has seen the surge that is possible
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2986 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:32 am

Probably the worst time for a ERC I would think. It might be able to finish this one right before landfall. I guess it depends how fast it can regain strength after it finishes this one. The wind field will increase even more after it so it's bad regardless. With the eye even bigger from this it might not matter if the eye doesn't come ashore...
Last edited by TheDreamTraveler on Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2987 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:32 am

And you think the eye is large now, wait until this EWRC finishes. :eek:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2988 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:34 am

bg1 wrote:
GCANE wrote:https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1039824127970996226


Interesting they don't count the 20+ inches of rain one town in SC got due to Joaquin... is this only for land-traversing storms?


That's because Joaquin didn't produce any rain in SC. It passed over 1000 miles east of the coast. The rain was from another feature separate from Joaquin.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2989 Postby Bunkertor » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:34 am


FB not available
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2990 Postby Bunkertor » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:37 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:And you think the eye is large now, wait until this EWRC finishes. :eek:

Do they usually grow with each turn ?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2991 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:37 am

Latest estimated wind field

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2992 Postby nativefloridian » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:37 am

Bunkertor wrote:

FB not available


https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC/videos/ ... 354182103/
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2993 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:38 am

Looking at 12z soundings coming in this morning, h50 heights have risen to 593 dm from Newport NC to Wallops Island VA to Upton NY.
I don't think they were supposed to be this high this morning, Florence may put on its break even sooner before approaching N.C.
IMO.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2994 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:43 am

Great paper here on the thermo of a EWRC.

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/artic ... l_2012.pdf
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2995 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:45 am

Recon is flying at 700mb.
They are sniffing out an EWRC
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2996 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:47 am

NDG wrote:Looking at 12z soundings coming in this morning, h50 heights have risen to 593 dm from Newport NC to Wallops Island VA to Upton NY.
I don't think they were supposed to be this high this morning, Florence may put on its break even sooner before approaching N.C.
IMO.


This is my biggest concern. The ridge indeed being much stronger than the past model runs initialized.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2997 Postby wxGuy » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:49 am

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

shes looking good this morning
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2998 Postby sponger » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:51 am

Going to be a hell of a day at the NHC. Time to nail down the forecast is fast approaching but we still do not have a high confidence yet of how much that high will push on Florence.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2999 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:51 am

Just wow.

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3000 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:51 am

Reminds me of Gloria on approach.
This time, not likely a last minute hard right turn.
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