ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[FLeastcoast]

Wow, this is crazy. I just noticed that NE FL actually does get hit by Flo.... the 2nd time! From NC, it comes back S inland and then goes offshore before then moving SW into NE FL on 9/18 and then moves inland to pcbjr's abode in Gainseville!! Yes it is weak then but still that's insane.

What?? I am near Gainesville. Where can I see the model that shows this please?

It is only a weak low but interesting nonetheless: the low shows then moves SW

Thanks for the link.

[MrJames]

12Z UKMET Ensembles



A majority are heading into SC on this run

[PandaCitrus]

The NHC in their 5 PM Advisory is discounting the GFS and the Out to Sea tracks.

The GFS and its ensemble mean
are outliers from the main model envelope, showing the system near
the Outer Banks, while the rest of the guidance is well to the
southwest. While a near-miss isn't impossible given the spread of
the ECMWF Ensemble, there is much more support for a track to the
southwest, especially considering the poleward bias of the GFS thus
far this season. Therefore, the official track forecast is shifted a
little bit to the southwest, and is very close to the
corrected-consensus models.

[TheDreamTraveler]

These rain totals are insane on the euro. Obviously this will keep changing since any little implication on track will change the flood risk for who gets it.

[Aric Dunn]

The crazy gfs is runnning again..

[BobHarlem]

@RyanMaue

Who is expecting another trash GFS forecast for 18z?


 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038901696557137921

[TheDreamTraveler]

I'm expecting the GFS to come more in line with the euro...eventually...lol

[smithtim]

Just for fun and this is only assuming the same general ridge placement and synoptic setup. And of course if it were to continue westward longer than the models suggest there would of course be mid/end of run changes as well.

this is just to show how small variation from a wobble for 3 hours or 2 or whatever can add up and change things. we see this all the time. where the same general shape to the track from the models but it just never quite makes the turn on time.

An interesting note to add to that, is if look at today's NHC:

24hr = 25.1, and then 48hr = 25.9

<br>

But, if look at yesterday's NHC:

48 hr = 25.4, and then 72hr = 27

<br>


That's a significant southern shift! Not sure how that plays out into the models - maybe this evenings & overnight 0z will tell us that?
Again, not sure how this effects the models but I do know the solution is all about when she starts to make that turn - right now I see her moving west and we might just have to sit wait & watch until she decides to let us know when she's turning...

[Emmett_Brown]

18z GFS is running. Interesting that it is calling for Florence to reach approx 24.7N at 06z tonight. So it appears to be moving W/NW on the model right out of the gate.

[Sciencerocks]

@RyanMaue

Who is expecting another trash GFS forecast for 18z?


 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038901696557137921

Sadly, I do. Stick with the ECMWF.

[GeneratorPower]

After watching the GFS and its right bias for a while, I think the reason for the bias might not be underdoing the ridge strength. The ridge is there. But it plows the hurricane into the ridge too far.

[KWT]

GFS nudges to the SW, though still to the right of most models.

[PandaCitrus]

GFS 18z is significantly south but seems to still be wanting to stall it off the coast of NC.

[Hammy]

@RyanMaue

Who is expecting another trash GFS forecast for 18z?


 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038901696557137921

Sadly, I do. Stick with the ECMWF.

I've largely ignored the GFS other than for entertainment, wondering what crazy scenario it'll come up with this time. I've been following the Euro and FV3 much more closely for a general idea of track.

[PandaCitrus]

GFS has landfall at the southernmost outer banks.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS for the first time showing the bending wnw motion that the ECMWF and other models show.

[BobHarlem]

Well so much for the out to sea runs.

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe its the start of (logical ) shift back west for the models. lol

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... Trend @132 hrs... Significant shift S

[tolakram]

18Z GFS