ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Hammy]

Maybe its the start of (logical ) shift back west for the models. lol

Or the GFS finally figuring out what the other models knew already.

[supercane4867]

Once again the NHC is smart enough to not buy the GFS solutions earlier

[plasticup]

18Z GFS
[im g]https://i.imgur.com/jmVDjqG.gif[/img]

The stall will be as bad as the landfall. Eastern NC handles flooding so poorly. Some schools are still closed from Matthew 2016.

[ronjon]

I think if there are any future shifts to the track, it'll likely be southward into SC - although not expecting huge swings. The mean tracks of the GEM, ECM, and UKMET ensemble runs are into northern SC.

[gatorcane]

Wow
There is not even a color code for the rainfall totals.

[supercane4867]

18z GFS has Flo not moving an inch after landfall. It just sitting over the coast for days

[Raebie]

Wow
There is not even a color code for the rainfall totals.

On top of surge flooding. Any projections on that yet?

[plasticup]

Wow
There is not even a color code for the rainfall totals.

26 inches of rain in some of the poorest counties in the country. These are counties where schools are still closed from the flooding of Mathew in 2016.

[supercane4867]

At 180hr it’s drifting due S back offshore LOL

[Raebie]

At 180hr it’s drifting due S back offshore LOL

The GFS is determined to kill NC dead.

[meriland29]

Quoted from NHCs latest discussion:

The GFS and its ensemble mean
are outliers from the main model envelope, showing the system near
the Outer Banks, while the rest of the guidance is well to the
southwest. While a near-miss isn't impossible given the spread of
the ECMWF Ensemble, there is much more support for a track to the
southwest, especially considering the poleward bias of the GFS thus
far this season. Therefore, the official track forecast is shifted a
little bit to the southwest, and is very close to the
corrected-consensus models.


You really have to appreciate the elaborate explanation as to why they are not giving into the outlier GFS models as of recently (minus the 18z)

[toad strangler]

Wow
There is not even a color code for the rainfall totals.

26 inches of rain in some of the poorest counties in the country. These are counties where schools are still closed from the flooding of Mathew in 2016.

They should probably move inland

[seahawkjd]

Wow
There is not even a color code for the rainfall totals.

26 inches of rain in some of the poorest counties in the country. These are counties where schools are still closed from the flooding of Mathew in 2016.

Living in the area you are talking about; I have to ask what counties are you referring to that haven't reopened schools after 2 years?

[Nimbus]

The target has been North Carolina for a while now, a 922 MB supercane lingering just offshore for days isn't any better from a disaster relief standpoint. Most local governments are geared to the 72 hour cone and warnings since that needs to be choreographed efficiently. Potentially less than two days away from that decision point. 18z GFS run had some MB forecasts in the 930's 12Z HWRF about 950 mb..

[Blown Away]

GFS seeing stronger ridging on 18z... 00z should be interesting, maybe the trend is south? It can't be slam dunk when the system is only @57W...

[MississippiWx]

The stalling showed by the GFS is not laughable. It’s very realistic with very weak steering and no where to go.

[b0tzy29]

Does this imply the center will be over the coast line from hour 102 - 192 of the forecast. That would be 90 hours or almost 4 days. That would be absolutely devastating if it actually did that.

[Blinhart]

Does this imply the center will be over the coast line from hour 102 - 192 of the forecast. That would be 90 hours or almost 4 days. That would be absolutely devastating if it actually did that.

Just ask Texas about that how bad it would be.

[BobHarlem]

18Z GFS goes back and hits Bermuda?

[PandaCitrus]

What would the storm surge forecast be for a stalled out storm for 90 hours? SLOSH models have potential for up to 28 feet at high tide in parts of coastal North Carolina in a Cat 4.