ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Seems to be very close to forecast track now.

[GeneratorPower]

Significant lightning in the eyewall right now.

[KWT]

Wow 110kts in The SW eyewall with flight level winds way above that, outrageous.

This is reminding of the night Dean made landfall in 2007, just kept ramping up literally into landfall.

[Blow_Hard]

Getting a very intense band right now here in north Bay County...I would estimate 45-50mph gust and torrential rain...

[Blown Away]

Looks NE movement, I’m calling @ Mexico Beach landfall...

[jdjaguar]

Water coming up passed where it was during nate last year here is Miramar beach, if it comes any higher it's going to be higher than the sea wall at the marina. This is getting scary for people who live on the bay!

Its not a question of IF

[EquusStorm]

To have a storm quickly intensifying into landfall in the far NE Gulf, at this intensity, is something I honestly never thought I'd see. Nothing in the historical record touches this unless late 19th century records are off somehow

[Rail Dawg]

The thunder in these sounds different.

They aren’t the long boomers you hear in a regular thunderstorm.

People still driving around here. Bridges close soon.

[KWT]

134kt FL/110kt SFMR in the SW quad. 925.7mb extrap.

NE quad coming shortly

It's going to be mighty close based on what the other quads have pumped our..and if anything the eyewall looks even better on radar, combined with lightning uptick again...

I'd say 130-135 kts but who knows!

[Gums]

Salute!

Tides here on Gulf Coast not like east coast of FL. A foot of change, maybe a foot and a half.

Gums sends ,,,

0925 light wind, 12 mph, light rain

[Ken711]

Seems to be very close to forecast track now.

https://i.imgur.com/UdYpd0d.gif

Landfall over Tyndall AFB?

[NDG]

SW eyewall is very strong now.

40900 2909N 08610W 6968 02653 9484 +129 +129 298128 132 108 020 00
140930 2911N 08608W 6940 02617 9395 +140 //// 299118 134 110 019 01
141000 2912N 08607W 7003 02488 9310 +154 //// 285059 098 104 008 01
141030 2913N 08606W 6946 02538 //// +143 //// 268036 048 045 003 05
141100 2915N 08606W 6973 02498 //// +143 //// 252023 030 024 002 01
141130 2917N 08606W 6968 02490 9259 +159 +130 247009 019 023 000 03

[GeneratorPower]

Heavy lightning right now

[dukeblue219]

NE quadrant a little lighter than we might have guessed. 122kt FL 111kt SFMR

[Abdullah]

They just did the pass

They have 125 knot barb

Unless the 'sonde finds something, I don't think it's enough.

[Hugo1989]

Do you guys know if any of the huricane chasers are in the area where landfall is expected? Any links to share?

[supercane4867]

Looks like the most intense winds are being translated to SE as the direction of the storm started to shift NE

[RL3AO]

If you look at satellite then it's not too surprising. The strongest convection is on the S/SE side right now. I'd wager the strongest winds are in the E/SE side right now.

[Siker]

Not too surprising that the NE eyewall is weaker than the SW right now given the weighting of convection to the South and West. We’ll see if that part of the eyewall intensifies.

[KWT]

Not quite as high in the NE as expected but the overall eyewall is now pretty much cat-4 levels across the board.