ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

PLEASE READ

We do not allow these message boards to be used as a megaphone for foolish ideas that are unproven and possibly dangerous. Doing so may result in temporary or permanent loss of posting privileges. An example of crossing the line is predicting how safe someone might be when the event has not yet happened. As someone said above, you could ask people how they fared during Category 2 Ike but many can't answer. We can discuss the storm without safety predictions. Every storm is different, every coast is different.

[Raebie]

How many ERCs can she go through in a day? Jeesh. Sounds like she might just suffer and weaken from now on..

And that would be a bad thing?

[Hurrilurker]

Buoy 41002 ahead of Florence average wave heights just shot from 7 feet to over 18 feet in the last 24 hours.

[MississippiWx]

SS EL FARO is the tragic example

Holy Crap!!

https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1039882107399622657

Don't want to be anywhere close to Florence on a ship that's for sure.

59-83ft seas, eh? Light to moderate chop on unprotected waters. Lol.

I can't even imagine seas 83ft high. Incredible.

[psyclone]

The problem with underestimating the power of moving water is that first hard lesson from mother nature stands a distinct possibility of killing the "student". The earlier tweet referencing the 83 foot waves tells us that even if we could magically click our heels together and make Florence disappear....an enormous amount of energy is already on the way to the Carolina coast. When the ocean is in motion...step out of the way and live to fight another day.

[funster]

Overall structure still looks good here to my amateur eyes:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... &length=24

[otowntiger]

How many ERCs can she go through in a day? Jeesh. Sounds like she might just suffer and weaken from now on..

And that would be a good thing, I’m pretty sure.

[ozonepete]

Storm is weakening quite a bit. Doubt she makes it back to 4 and doubt she stays a 3 long. Good news of what little we can find.

I wouldn’t bet too much on that proposition.. NHC says tomorrow AM is their target for a strengthening phase before landfall..

If you're not a met and you're going to say that "Storm is weakening quite a bit." you have to state the disclaimer that you are not a met and this is just your opinion. The NHC is not saying what you just said. People can get the wrong idea.

[Craters]

How many ERCs can she go through in a day? Jeesh. Sounds like she might just suffer and weaken from now on..

And that would be a good thing, I’m pretty sure.

If the wind field didn't expand after the EWRC finished, I guess it could be a good thing. Since the wind field does expand with EWR, though, that could well be a turn for the worse in terms of surge intensity and duration...

[sikkar]

Most recent microwave shows notable degradation in the southern quadrant eye wall.

[meriland29]

How many ERCs can she go through in a day? Jeesh. Sounds like she might just suffer and weaken from now on..

And that would be a bad thing?

No, itd be good of her to weaken. Just noting what she is doing and that she is throwing in a tizzy.

[Ubuntwo]

Most recent microwave shows notable degradation in the southern quadrant eye wall.

Wasn't the last microwave four hours ago or so?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Most recent microwave shows notable degradation in the southern quadrant eye wall.

Inner or outer eyeball?

[dhweather]

Most recent microwave shows notable degradation in the southern quadrant eye wall.

Wasn't the last microwave four hours ago or so?

About an hour ago.

[J_J99]

2 PM EST

[MississippiWx]

Breathtaking view of Florence on visible right now. The outflow is beautiful. It's hard to believe something so beautiful can be so deadly. My late grandfather used to say the same thing about his second wife.

[sikkar]

Most recent microwave shows notable degradation in the southern quadrant eye wall.

Inner or outer eyeball?

Sorry not sure, just stating that.

[tolakram]

It's still finishing the ERC that started last night or early this morning. The new eye, if it clears out, is going to be quite large.

[supercane4867]

Not quite sure if she can complete this EWRC. Appears to be a failed attempt on microwave unless she can close the outer eyewall.

[bohaiboy]

In regards to the reported 83 ft waves, during Rita one of our offshore platforms had a rig washed of and it set at 85 ft above MSL. There were also dead fish found at that level indicating water levels at least of 85+ feet. Folks this is real. Imagine some of the images from the boat in The Perfect Storm. And remember, 85 is equivalent to a 7-8 story building.