ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

There may also be some shear. Higher clouds appear to be moving toward the center from the south.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-09-48-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Hypercane_Kyle]

That last microwave pass doesn't look like an EWRC to me, looks like an entire quadrant of the hurricane has been eroded. Unexpected mid level shear?

[MississippiWx]

Not quite sure if she can complete this EWRC. Appears to be a failed attempt on microwave unless she can close the outer eyewall.

While satellite can be a little deceiving, it appears that she may have already closed that section of the eye wall or at least made a lot of progress. A close glance at visible loops shows what the microwave pass was showing, but it appears to have closed off a lot better since. We will see.

[psyclone]

That last microwave pass doesn't look like an EWRC to me, looks like an entire quadrant of the hurricane has been eroded. Unexpected mid level shear?

that has unexpectedly disrupted many canes before. Let's hope

[rwfromkansas]

Following this thread, I remember why I try not to read these hurricane discussions....and then why I get sucked in to watch anyway. Every hour these storms have something new to throw at us. Even with all our technology, there is still a lot we can't truly predict. It's a mental rollercoaster. Let's hope for a miracle for those in the path, but either way, it's bringing a ton of water.

[GCANE]

Massive off-the-scale rain rate.
Latent heating is going to reintensify the core.
Nicely isolated from any PV anomalies.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Not quite sure if she can complete this EWRC. Appears to be a failed attempt on microwave unless she can close the outer eyewall.

Agreed, but I am no pro

[GCANE]

Eye is getting smaller

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

[GCANE]

Cloud tops warming as well

[Sanibel]

NW edge starting to flatten in response to High...

[Nasdaq]

Phillip Papin on twitter

"A recent 85GHz microwave pass over #Hurricane #Florence reveals despite its good IR presentation, the core is starting to degrade.

The earlier #ERC never finished & a combo of ocean upwelling & dry air entrainment are affecting the core.

Further intensification unlikely now." https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039958804715073536

[Bocadude85]

NW edge starting to flatten in response to High...

Interesting observation, it is very noticeable after looking at the IR.

[emeraldislenc]

It really looks like a weakening trend but who knows for certain it does not look as healthy as it did earlier. Let’s hope the trend continues. The next few hours will be intetesting to see the trends.

[shawn67]

Phillip Papin on twitter

"A recent 85GHz microwave pass over #Hurricane #Florence reveals despite its good IR presentation, the core is starting to degrade.

The earlier #ERC never finished & a combo of ocean upwelling & dry air entrainment are affecting the core.

Further intensification unlikely now." https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039958804715073536

Second part of his tweet beginning with However:

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039960924864446464

Shawn

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like some of the cloud tops are starting to cool again. She should be hitting warmer waters soon.

[GCANE]

New tower firing off on the west eyewall.

[JBCycloneStan]

Massive off-the-scale rain rate.
Latent heating is going to reintensify the core.
Nicely isolated from any PV anomalies.

http://i64.tinypic.com/2ldzrs6.jpg

http://i64.tinypic.com/21eama1.gif

Phillip Papin on twitter

"A recent 85GHz microwave pass over #Hurricane #Florence reveals despite its good IR presentation, the core is starting to degrade.

The earlier #ERC never finished & a combo of ocean upwelling & dry air entrainment are affecting the core.

Further intensification unlikely now." https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/103995880471507353

There are contradictory. What is the truth?

[eastcoastFL]

I would be ecstatic if this thing degraded. The downside would be that next storm even less people will heed directions to evacuate if ends up being much weaker than forecast.

[eastcoastFL]

New tower firing off on the west eyewall.

Yup just saw the same thing. Shes approaching the warmer waters. Wonder what happens next..

[Visioen]

Phillip Papin on twitter

"A recent 85GHz microwave pass over #Hurricane #Florence reveals despite its good IR presentation, the core is starting to degrade.

The earlier #ERC never finished & a combo of ocean upwelling & dry air entrainment are affecting the core.

Further intensification unlikely now." https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039958804715073536

I wonder why he talks about ocean upwelling. Florence is moving forward like a rocket.