ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

Something else often missing in intensity observations is context and perspective. This storm can weaken to some degree and still remain a powerhouse. It's like Bezos losing a billion. Is he poorer? Yeah but he's still rich af. It's not a Charley bullet, but rather an aqua steamroller poised to inflict massive shoreline damage over a huge area and then a perhaps an equally impressive and widespread flood event inland. I have long believed that there is way too much emphasis on max winds (ss scale) rather than the breadth and depth of the system. This is likely to ultimately be borne out when the monetary cost of the storm is eventually calculated. It looks like it has pretty high potential to me whether it lands at 110, 120 or 130mph.

[Ubuntwo]

Something else often missing in intensity observations is context and perspective. This storm can weaken to some degree and still remain a powerhouse. It's like Bezos losing a billion. Is he poorer? Yeah but he's still rich af. It's not a Charley bullet, but rather an aqua steamroller poised to inflict massive shoreline damage over a huge area and then a perhaps an equally impressive and widespread flood event inland. I have long believed that there is way too much emphasis on max winds (ss scale) rather than the breadth and depth of the system. This is likely to ultimately be borne out when the monetary cost of the storm is eventually calculated. It looks like it has pretty high potential to me whether it lands at 110, 120 or 130mph.

Yep. Think Ike. Was very intense, weakened some but obtained a massive windfield and crazy high surge for a storm of that intensity.

[jasons2k]

Something else often missing in intensity observations is context and perspective. This storm can weaken to some degree and still remain a powerhouse. It's like Bezos losing a billion. Is he poorer? Yeah but he's still rich af. It's not a Charley bullet, but rather an aqua steamroller poised to inflict massive shoreline damage over a huge area and then a perhaps an equally impressive and widespread flood event inland. I have long believed that there is way too much emphasis on max winds (ss scale) rather than the breadth and depth of the system. This is likely to ultimately be borne out when the monetary cost of the storm is eventually calculated. It looks like it has pretty high potential to me whether it lands at 110, 120 or 130mph.

Exactly. One reason why I like the Hurricane Severity Index. It ranks Carla as #1:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Severity_Index

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Something else often missing in intensity observations is context and perspective. This storm can weaken to some degree and still remain a powerhouse. It's like Bezos losing a billion. Is he poorer? Yeah but he's still rich af. It's not a Charley bullet, but rather an aqua steamroller poised to inflict massive shoreline damage over a huge area and then a perhaps an equally impressive and widespread flood event inland. I have long believed that there is way too much emphasis on max winds (ss scale) rather than the breadth and depth of the system. This is likely to ultimately be borne out when the monetary cost of the storm is eventually calculated. It looks like it has pretty high potential to me whether it lands at 110, 120 or 130mph.

Yup and duration of high winds and surge is also an important fact. A small intense storm moving quickly can often do less damage than a large storm of moderate intensity that is moving slowly.

[funster]

The NHC has said the windfield expanded in the last discussion but it seems like winds were already described as extending out 70 miles. Maybe they haven't updated that information yet or they were referring to the TS winds.

However, while the hurricane hasn't strengthened in terms of peak winds, the inner-core and outer wind fields have continued to expand, resulting in an increase the cyclone's total energy

[ozonepete]

Phillip Papin on twitter

"A recent 85GHz microwave pass over #Hurricane #Florence reveals despite its good IR presentation, the core is starting to degrade.

The earlier #ERC never finished & a combo of ocean upwelling & dry air entrainment are affecting the core.

Further intensification unlikely now." https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039958804715073536

I wonder why he talks about ocean upwelling. Florence is moving forward like a rocket.

I really like Phillipe but there is no upwelling going on right now. Don't know why he thought that.

[sikkar]

Fresh microwave appears to shows further degradation, for now.

[ronjon]

Please for those in its path, don't be lulled into a false sense of complacency. Like Katrina, the storms max winds decreased and it dropped a category prior to landfall but that didn't diminish storm surge.

From the 5 pm NHC discussion on Florence, the cyclones energy is increasing with expanding wind field.

However, while the
hurricane hasn't strengthened in terms of peak winds, the inner-core
and outer wind fields have continued to expand, resulting in an
increase the cyclone's total energy, which will create a significant
storm surge event.

[meriland29]

Fresh microwave appears to shows further degradation, for now.

Do you have the photo?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Fresh microwave appears to shows further degradation, for now.

I wouldn't concentrate much on that if I were in the path. The expanded windfield and the project slow forward speed matter much more.

[supercane4867]

Doesn't appear to be much different than the pass taken a hour before this. Recon tonight will tell the story

[Nimbus]

The NHC has said the windfield expanded in the last discussion but it seems like winds were already described as extending out 70 miles. Maybe they haven't updated that information yet or they were referring to the TS winds.

However, while the hurricane hasn't strengthened in terms of peak winds, the inner-core and outer wind fields have continued to expand, resulting in an increase the cyclone's total energy

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 72.5 West. Florence is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is
expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight, and approach the coast of
North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on
Thursday and Friday, and move slowly near the coastline through
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Florence is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength
will be possible through Thursday morning. Although slow weakening
is expected to begin by late Thursday, Florence is forecast to be an
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S. coast
late Thursday and Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to
195 miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to 10
inches, isolated 20 inches.
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to 6
inches, isolated 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
beginning late Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Hurricane Andrew]

AF308 is airborne, we should have recon data within two hours (first fix scheduled for 2330z).

[sikkar]

Fresh microwave appears to shows further degradation, for now.

Do you have the photo?

Sorry can't post from where I am.
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... egreeticks

[sikkar]

Fresh microwave appears to shows further degradation, for now.

I wouldn't concentrate much on that if I were in the path. The expanded windfield and the project slow forward speed matter much more.

Absolutely, just an observation.

[aperson]

Fresh microwave appears to shows further degradation, for now.

Do you have the photo?

Sorry can't post from where I am.
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... egreeticks

That pass is 2.5 hrs old. The latest SSMIS from 30 mins ago didn't catch the storm.

There were some eyewall flashes and what looks like some reorganization of the inner eyewall at around 2122Z, I want to see MW passes from after that

[1900hurricane]

For those curious, Josh Morgerman of iCyclone has switched targets from Florence to Mangkhut in the WPac.

[hurricaneCW]

The north & east side of her is pretty beefy. Even if she never made LF, I suspect the worst impacts would've been onshore.

[supercane4867]

For those curious, Josh Morgerman of iCyclone has switched targets from Florence to Mangkhut in the WPac.

Good for him. Hope someday I can have the money to buy transcontinental flights like buying movie tickets.

[funster]

Smaller Flo eye appearing?
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined