ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland29]

I wonder what recon is finding since she is questionable atm whether she is continually degrading or ramping up...

[wx98]

Is it going north of track?

It would appear so, been going that way throughout the day ive noticed.

I agree. Maybe this is good for SC unless it dives SW before it reaches Wilmington.

I'm thinking it will likely get back on track. If it does drift north, I can't see it going any further than Morehead City.

[dukeblue219]

I wonder what recon is finding since she is questionable atm whether she is continually degrading or ramping up...

Recons not quite there yet. You can track them at tropical tidbits, hurricane city, tropical Atlantic, etc if you're curious.

[tolakram]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/7vBtniLYSfM[/youtube]

[wx98]

Saw a tweet from earlier (few pages back) that said about 200 people remained on Okracoke Island. The town (all the homes) is roughly 0.75 - 1 mile behind the shoreline; max elevation is 3 feet. If this thing does drift just a bit north toward Morehead then this is definitely not a good situation. There is literally nowhere to run.

[tolakram]

Saw a tweet from earlier (few pages back) that said about 200 people remained on Okracoke Island. The town (all the homes) is roughly 0.75 - 1 mile behind the shoreline; max elevation is 3 feet. If this thing does drift just a bit north toward Morehead then this is definitely not a good situation. There is literally nowhere to run.

Unfortunately I suspect they will be underwater and surprised by it. I hope I'm wrong but this reminds me of Ike ... looked ragged but was huge, and then the water started to rise, everywhere, and people were shocked. Different coast, different storm, but if it was me I'd be well inland right now.

[p1nheadlarry]

Saw a tweet from earlier (few pages back) that said about 200 people remained on Okracoke Island. The town (all the homes) is roughly 0.75 - 1 mile behind the shoreline; max elevation is 3 feet. If this thing does drift just a bit north toward Morehead then this is definitely not a good situation. There is literally nowhere to run.

Unfortunately I suspect they will be underwater and surprised by it. I hope I'm wrong but this reminds me of Ike ... looked ragged but was huge, and then the water started to rise, everywhere, and people were shocked. Different coast, different storm, but if it was me I'd be well inland right now.

This may be more common with Hatteras and Bodie Islands, but as someone who used to frequent there often, there's something about being a local OBXer and staying through storms. They seem to accept it no matter the threat.

[Blinhart]

Saw a tweet from earlier (few pages back) that said about 200 people remained on Okracoke Island. The town (all the homes) is roughly 0.75 - 1 mile behind the shoreline; max elevation is 3 feet. If this thing does drift just a bit north toward Morehead then this is definitely not a good situation. There is literally nowhere to run.

Unfortunately I suspect they will be underwater and surprised by it. I hope I'm wrong but this reminds me of Ike ... looked ragged but was huge, and then the water started to rise, everywhere, and people were shocked. Different coast, different storm, but if it was me I'd be well inland right now.

I'm hoping the Coast Guard will be able to get to them tomorrow night when they realize they need to be rescued. The island should be under water by tomorrow night.

[Blinhart]

Anyone that stays on a barrier island during this storm is basically risking their lives, and are told to write their SSN with marks-a-lots on all 4 limbs, and their chests so they can be identified.

[wx98]

Saw a tweet from earlier (few pages back) that said about 200 people remained on Okracoke Island. The town (all the homes) is roughly 0.75 - 1 mile behind the shoreline; max elevation is 3 feet. If this thing does drift just a bit north toward Morehead then this is definitely not a good situation. There is literally nowhere to run.

Unfortunately I suspect they will be underwater and surprised by it. I hope I'm wrong but this reminds me of Ike ... looked ragged but was huge, and then the water started to rise, everywhere, and people were shocked. Different coast, different storm, but if it was me I'd be well inland right now.

I was younger back then (and for some reason remember Dolly and Bertha more than Ike), but I have definitely heard the stories and seen footage. These large sprawling storms (Ike, Sandy, Katrina, etc.) are definitely deceiving because their winds may be lower (and going down on approach). Something to steer clear of for sure.

[GeneratorPower]

Anyone that stays on a barrier island during this storm is basically risking their lives, and are told to write their SSN with marks-a-lots on all 4 limbs, and their chests so they can be identified.

Even if someone survives the storm in an elevated building, surely their cars would be swamped. I mean, every barrier island I’be seen has mostly ground level parking, eh?

[Ken711]

there is no way she hits the next forecast point

Is it going north of track?

yes, quite a bit north and a bit east

Morehead City to Ocracoke area seems possible with a shift north and east. That's about where Isabel made landfall.

[wx98]

Is it going north of track?

yes, quite a bit north and a bit east

Morehead City to Ocracoke area seems possible with a shift north and east. That's about where Isabel made landfall.

Same thing I've been thinking. To me, Morehead is now looking more possible than it did yesterday.

[PandaCitrus]

The NHC may be low balling the storm surge numbers. Cape Fear to Cape Lookout of 9 to 13 feet seems low.

Maximum surge potential for a Cat 3 can be 20 feet and Florence seems to be bigger and badder than your average Cat 3. Just curious how they decided on these numbers. Any pro mets care to comment?

[Condor]

She has expanded at a rapid rate over the past hour

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Surge/status/1039983569567928320

[Raebie]

Saw a tweet from earlier (few pages back) that said about 200 people remained on Okracoke Island. The town (all the homes) is roughly 0.75 - 1 mile behind the shoreline; max elevation is 3 feet. If this thing does drift just a bit north toward Morehead then this is definitely not a good situation. There is literally nowhere to run.

Unfortunately I suspect they will be underwater and surprised by it. I hope I'm wrong but this reminds me of Ike ... looked ragged but was huge, and then the water started to rise, everywhere, and people were shocked. Different coast, different storm, but if it was me I'd be well inland right now.

I'm hoping the Coast Guard will be able to get to them tomorrow night when they realize they need to be rescued. The island should be under water by tomorrow night.

The coast guard won't be able to find anyone, much less rescue someone in those conditions.

[otterlyspicey]

Could anyone share an updated satellite link with forecasted NHC points? I cannot find it on the NHC like previous years and would like to see how she's aiming compared to expectations. Thanks in advance.

[tolakram]

Just coming into radar range.

[dspguy]

This storm keeps having Hollywood twists. I'm wondering if it has one more up its sleeve. And who knows what it will be?