ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

Pressure is up in the 950s based on recon, let's wait for the NE eyewall pass.

[tolakram]

In this WV loop you can see the upper low that's imparting southerly shear onto Florence. It's over the eastern Florida coast and moving away.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-southconus-08-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[supercane4867]

Appears to have weakened quite a bit. Probably a marginal CAT3 at most.

[Vdogg]

Lower half is really starting to fire off now. I think she's about to take off again. Very large storm now.

[CrazyC83]

Appears to have weakened quite a bit. Probably a marginal CAT3 at most.

The storm surge threat is not decreasing at all though. Even if it is a cat 2 at landfall, I'd expect a really high surge. Almost feels like Ike.

[ronyan]

Every page has someone saying it's about take off now. We'll see, it could still recover a little.

[syfr]

Saw a tweet from earlier (few pages back) that said about 200 people remained on Okracoke Island. The town (all the homes) is roughly 0.75 - 1 mile behind the shoreline; max elevation is 3 feet. If this thing does drift just a bit north toward Morehead then this is definitely not a good situation. There is literally nowhere to run.

The highest elevation on the island is 27 feet I think (we visit often). 200 people is roughly half the year-round population there. I know there's at least one 5th generation family there.

Given all of that, I would have been the FIRST person on the ferry. I hope they all do well. Ocracoke is one of my favorite places in the world.

[FLpanhandle91]

Large eye trying to emerge it looks like.

[Kingarabian]

Appears to have weakened quite a bit. Probably a marginal CAT3 at most.

The storm surge threat is not decreasing at all though. Even if it is a cat 2 at landfall, I'd expect a really high surge. Almost feels like Ike.

[Vdogg]

I'm thinking a TS warning gets extended to SeVA by tomorrow mornings update. That windfield has to be huge now.

[ronyan]

Saw a tweet from earlier (few pages back) that said about 200 people remained on Okracoke Island. The town (all the homes) is roughly 0.75 - 1 mile behind the shoreline; max elevation is 3 feet. If this thing does drift just a bit north toward Morehead then this is definitely not a good situation. There is literally nowhere to run.

The highest elevation on the island is 27 feet I think (we visit often). 200 people is roughly half the year-round population there. I know there's at least one 5th generation family there.

Given all of that, I would have been the FIRST person on the ferry. I hope they all do well. Ocracoke is one of my favorite places in the world.

I would not have guessed it had a point that high, pretty good news for those people. I was fearing that it was similar to pre-1900 Galveston.

[Ian2401]

Why is she so lopsided all the sudden? I assume she sucked in a lot of dry air

[Ken711]

I'm thinking a TS warning gets extended to SeVA by tomorrow mornings update. That windfield has to be huge now.

Levi Cowan in his latest report expects tropical force winds extending out 200 miles from center.

[dukeblue219]

NE quad had peak FL winds of 101kt.

[Vdogg]

Every page has someone saying it's about take off now. We'll see, it could still recover a little.

I'd post a gif of the sat image if I knew how to. Deep convection trying to wrap around a very large eye.

[tolakram]

Why is she so lopsided all the sudden? I assume she sucked in a lot of dry air

There's an upper level low to it's south, but Florence is moving further away and the low is moving further SW.

[Raebie]

Saw a tweet from earlier (few pages back) that said about 200 people remained on Okracoke Island. The town (all the homes) is roughly 0.75 - 1 mile behind the shoreline; max elevation is 3 feet. If this thing does drift just a bit north toward Morehead then this is definitely not a good situation. There is literally nowhere to run.

The highest elevation on the island is 27 feet I think (we visit often). 200 people is roughly half the year-round population there. I know there's at least one 5th generation family there.

Given all of that, I would have been the FIRST person on the ferry. I hope they all do well. Ocracoke is one of my favorite places in the world.

I would not have guessed it had a point that high, pretty good news for those people. I was fearing that it was similar to pre-1900 Galveston.

Only good news if they can actually get there.

[syfr]

Unfortunately the high point is where nobody lives and might be about as big around as my living room.

I would guess most of the homes are 3-5 feet elevation but most are built on stilts or above ground. Given that that part of the island is flat as a pancake, water just doesn't stack up, but tends to rush from the sound to the ocean and vice versa.

[meriland29]

NE quad had peak FL winds of 101kt.

That's pretty low. Maybe she is no longer a M hurricane? One can only hope

[hurricaneCW]

Her energy is completely spread out right now as seen by recon just like Ike was.

It's going to be tough to intensify under those circumstances but she probably has one more shot tonight and tomorrow as shear declines and OHC goes up.

The coastal risks will not go away regardless of what happens, she's packing too much energy. Again I hope people don't become complacent if she weakens to a 2.