ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PandaCitrus]

It's very possible that Florence's core is so disrupted that any strengthening will be in wind field expansion and not in maximum surface winds similar to a Sandy surge event rather than a Hugo or Andrew wind event.

[edu2703]

8:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12
Location: 31.5°N 73.2°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

[SunnyThoughts]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

big quick blowup down in the SE portion of the storm. Not sure if it has time to do anything but spread out the windfield now.

[wx98]

Saw a tweet from earlier (few pages back) that said about 200 people remained on Okracoke Island. The town (all the homes) is roughly 0.75 - 1 mile behind the shoreline; max elevation is 3 feet. If this thing does drift just a bit north toward Morehead then this is definitely not a good situation. There is literally nowhere to run.

The highest elevation on the island is 27 feet I think (we visit often). 200 people is roughly half the year-round population there. I know there's at least one 5th generation family there.

Given all of that, I would have been the FIRST person on the ferry. I hope they all do well. Ocracoke is one of my favorite places in the world.

Got the 3 ft of Wikipedia

[PandaCitrus]

NHC has it at 115mph now and this is before going to the cool continential shelf waters. If she is going to landfall as a Cat 3, she must strengthen now or she may end up a Cat 1/2 at landfall.

[syfr]

It's very possible that Florence's core is so disrupted that any strengthening will be in wind field expansion and not in maximum surface winds similar to a Sandy surge event rather than a Hugo or Andrew wind event.

Is this to say a lower peak wind but winds extending further from the eye? That would seem to make sense as there's only a finite amount of energy in the storm to disperse.

[Nimbus]

Unfortunately the high point is where nobody lives and might be about as big around as my living room.

I would guess most of the homes are 3-5 feet elevation but most are built on stilts or above ground. Given that that part of the island is flat as a pancake, water just doesn't stack up, but tends to rush from the sound to the ocean and vice versa.

There is a four story brick Inn at the marina on Ocracoke island and the first story looks like its not used.
Second floor is at 17 ft by google earth which might be enough. They will probably wish they had take the ferry earlier though.

[Blinhart]

Unfortunately the high point is where nobody lives and might be about as big around as my living room.

I would guess most of the homes are 3-5 feet elevation but most are built on stilts or above ground. Given that that part of the island is flat as a pancake, water just doesn't stack up, but tends to rush from the sound to the ocean and vice versa.

The problem though is those houses on stilts will end up inland on the other side of the Sound. They will not be able to withstand the constant pounding of the Storm Surge and strong high waves. Many stilt houses around here on the Gulf Coast ended up like 20 miles away from where they were originally with Rita and Ike.

[CrazyC83]

NHC has it at 115mph now and this is before going to the cool continential shelf waters. If she is going to landfall as a Cat 3, she must strengthen now or she may end up a Cat 1/2 at landfall.

The water is more than warm enough right up to landfall. But the structure is disrupted from the many ERC's. The 100 kt intensity is probably quite generous but they have only made one pass.

[Blinhart]

NHC has it at 115mph now and this is before going to the cool continential shelf waters. If she is going to landfall as a Cat 3, she must strengthen now or she may end up a Cat 1/2 at landfall.

What cool continental shelf waters?

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 23:52Z

A. Time of Center Fix: 12th day of the month at 23:25:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31.37N 73.09W
F. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 75kts (86.3mph)
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 79kts (90.9mph)
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) which was observed 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NE (46°) from the flight level center at 23:45:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the S (185°) from the flight level center

[meriland29]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir

big quick blowup down in the SE portion of the storm. Not sure if it has time to do anything but spread out the windfield now.

And a very notable burst of cooling tops in the SW ...

[PandaCitrus]

The water is warm near the coast but only at the surface. It is not deep water and the Hurricane will upwell it. There isn't the heat content necessary to maintain strength. Hurricanes need warm water but also DEEP warm water. There was a graphic posted that showed this.

[GCANE]

[tarheelprogrammer]

This storm has already peaked and while still quite strong it should continue to weaken. Good news NC and SC for now.

[meriland29]

NHC has it at 115mph now and this is before going to the cool continential shelf waters. If she is going to landfall as a Cat 3, she must strengthen now or she may end up a Cat 1/2 at landfall.

She will be in extremely favorable waters for the next 12 hrs or so...i don't know what you are talking about....she is just getting into the gulf stream.

[PandaCitrus]

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) which was observed 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NE (46°) from the flight level center at 23:45:00Z

That's one hell of an outer wind maxima at 64 miles from the eye!!!!

Wow, areas far from the eye may end up with the maximum winds because of the strange eyewall structure from these at the present failed eyewall replacement cycles.

[Raebie]

This storm has already peaked and while still quite strong it should continue to weaken. Good news NC and SC for now.

Now let's talk about surge, stalls and rain. Don't pop your Champaign just yet.

[MetroMike]

This storm has already peaked and while still quite strong it should continue to weaken. Good news NC and SC for now.

Nothing is for certain with it until landfall.

[GCANE]

On Approach