ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Pressure dropping in category 5 range on approach...Those chasers are going to get their money's worth this time...They might have underestimated this one...I hope they are safe...

[Rail Dawg]

Trees falling now.

[chaser1]

155900 2938N 08546W 6970 02429 9183 +176 +135 270009 018 027 001 00


918.3mb

Also an unflagged 121kt SFMR.

INSANE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[dukeblue219]

Dropsonde #11 just splashed in 922mb and 34kts. Supports sub-920....

[Rail Dawg]

There’s no way I’d leave this bunker.

[Sanibel]

Look I'm not looking to get in an argument with you. It's my opinion that model intensity to this date is still a crap shoot. And that is pretty factual. As far as track, I believe the NHC is now near 100% at 72 hours out. Last I checked opinions are ok

My fault...I made a bad prediction last night of leveling off at 125-130...I accept crow...I wasn't paying attention to what the storm was doing or prevailing conditions...

[supercane4867]

He is brave.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1050056777465823240

Josh knows what he's doing. He will be fine as always.

[supercane4867]

Dropsonde indicates 919mb. Andrew and Katrina have fallen.

[GBPackMan]

Checking in from central Okaloosa county here (north of Ft Walton/Destin). Some fairly steady rain and gusts over 40mph but overall nothing of concern here. Still watching it closely in case it makes a last minute jog north but latest live GOES-16 views show it actually making a Easterly jog so it should be coming in just SE of Panama City. The last frame from 16:08Z and 16:13Z (11:08/11:13 Central/local time) shows a slight jog NE from the previous several frames showing a more ENE movement.

The Cat4 winds are only 15NM wide radius (very close to/at the eye wall) and Hurricane force winds (64kt/73mph) are out 40NM (46 miles) from the eye in the NW quadrant (less so in the other quadrants), so it is a very small potent area that doesn't extend very far. Bad for the landfall area and the rest in its direct path but not much for the rest of us west of the storm.

As of 16:00Z:
Radius of Circulation: 210 NM (242 miles)
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM (17.26 miles)

So it is definitely a very small area with the hurricane force winds. This will very likely spread out after it hits land with 70+ mph start to expand and affect those as it moves into SW Georgia. After that it will be a rain maker.

This one ramped up quickly and allowed the warmer gulf water to fuel and overcome the high level sheer which was unexpected, especially for a late year storm. This is why most of the models (and myself) were quite a ways off with the intensity expectations. The shear and colder air over the central plains (and cooler night time temps across the SE US) should have fed in and limited it to a Cat 1, with a bump into Cat 2 before dropping off again 18-24h before landfall, but the warmer flow from the gulf waters and warmer moist Atlantic side fueled it to overcome and block off the drier cooler air and limit the effects of the upper level shear. This is still the likely reason why the worst is only in a very tiny radius, and not a much wider area of stronger winds, and also why the heaviest rain areas will be limited.

Stay safe all.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Got roofing or siding flying by on Mark Sudduth's Live video from Mexico Beach!

[KWT]

Dropsonde #11 just splashed in 922mb and 34kts. Supports sub-920....

Wow so pressure at landfall will be 919mbs!!

To note, Hazel came in at 938mbs. .this is light years stronger and I think that would put Michael at no 3 of all time behind 35 and Camille?

[RL3AO]

Probably down to 920 mb now. If the NE quad had the strongest convection in the eyewall, this might be a cat 5.

[northjaxpro]

Michael hss now surpassed Andrew with regards to barometric pressure. Andrew was 922 mb at his strongest in his lifespan.

[meriland29]

Arw his winds responding to that presssure drop?

[Ken711]

Dropsonde #11 just splashed in 922mb and 34kts. Supports sub-920....

Wow so pressure at landfall will be 919mbs!!

To note, Hazel came in at 938mbs. .this is light years stronger and I think that would put Michael at no 3 of all time behind 35 and Camille?

That's an amazing intensification to witness.

[Newtonnole]

First time poster. I appreciate the information as I have been lurking. I live in Blountstown FL which is going to be just east of the eye wall.

Please let me say again, thanks for the information.

If there is a positive here, most of Michael's center path, once it leaves beach, will be the Apalachicola River and Apalachicola National Forest which is sparsely populated.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

WMBB building is shaking. Not sure how much longer they're going to be on the air.

[NDG]

History in the making, unfortunately devastating for the people being affected.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1050058343405051904

[tolakram]

Been tracking them for over 30 years. I've seen it both ways. Modeling for intensity this time was good but in many cases it's still a crap shoot and many times model intensity is al over the board

So you are comparing model performance what, 15 years ago, to today? That's the point I'm trying to make.

Look I'm not looking to get in an argument with you. It's my opinion that model intensity to this date is still a crap shoot. And that is pretty factual. As far as track, I believe the NHC is now near 100% at 72 hours out. Last I checked opinions are ok

I'm giving you my opinion. The facts can be looked up in the NHC verification reports. My criticism was about those posters who last night claimed Michael would weaken because they always do. In my opinion that kind of mumbo jumbo non scientific conclusion is very dangerous. There is a reason storms weaken. What is that reason and does it exist today? Do we care to learn anything from past storms?