ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland29]

First sign that it is starting to slow down, per the latest fix by the recon it moved at average of 13.5 mph, down from 17 mph from the previous fix.

That could be bad or good. Good in the sense she might stall further outside of land. Bad cause she could spend a lot more time than anticipated over the gulf stream instead of the more shallow waters.

[Raebie]

Is your residence in a mandatory evacuation zone?

Am giving thought now to bailing out from Wilmington. It’s a tough decision.

I think he’s a storm chaser who is in Wilmington and wishing he wasn’t.

I think he's thinking about moving to greener landfall pastures. Which bodes well my house.

[NDG]

The aircraft also reports
that the hurricane again has concentric wind maxima, the inner at a
radius 20-30 n mi and the outer at 50-60 n mi. The convection seems
to have been affected by 20-25 kt of southerly vertical wind shear,
most of which appears to be due to strong winds between 200-250 mb
seen in dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV jet. The central
pressure has risen to 957 mb, and the maximum 700-mb flight-level
winds reported so far are 103 kt. Based on the latter data, the
initial intensity reduced to a probably generous 95 kt.

Once again, shear forecasts are fairly useless beyond ... oh ... 90 minutes?

Here's the dropsonde that indicated the southerly shear at that level.

[Michele B]

Is your residence in a mandatory evacuation zone?

I think he’s a storm chaser who is in Wilmington and wishing he wasn’t.

I think he's thinking about moving to greener landfall pastures. Which bodes well my house.

Besides, Wilmington.....you've got Cantore!!!

[Raebie]

If he leaves we're safe. Lol.

[smithtim]

What are the chances we wake tomorrow to a cat 1 or TS?

Well it's down to cat 2 now so never know...

I don't believe the computer intensity models accurately correct for deep ( read sucks up colder water from bottom ) water as compared to shallower waters like Caribbean or certain parts of GOM? So just applying a common sense forecast you'd expect a storm in this location/trajectory to begin slowly weaken


And, for the good people of the SE coastal areas there definitely hope & pray that Florence become "Flo fizzles"

[1900hurricane]

I'm not 100% sure this is the exact number (I'm still testing the program I wrote that does these calculations), but using the 00Z best track data, I end up with Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) of 65.718 TJ and a Surge Destruction Potential (SDP) of 4.116.

[NDG]

Interesting that the GFS forecasts it to strengthen tomorrow right before landfall while it tracks over the gulf stream.

[emeraldislenc]

The satellite presentation is looking a little better now I wonder if it could strengthen some?

[supercane4867]

A CAT2 landfall seems to be the most likely outcome at this point. I would be very surprised if she fall apart a CAT1 without stalling offshore given the improving conditions tomorrow.

[Rail Dawg]

You guys make me smile.

Yeah I’m one of those crazy chasers.

Haven’t showered in 4 days and have been sleeping in my trusty truck.

I’m in a great location so I think I’ll read my book, get some sleep and see what the morning brings.

Came all the way from Houston so maybe I’ll hang out to see what Florence is going to do.

Just goes to show that even with the world’s biggest super-computers working 24/7 on this storm we still don’t know everything lol.

[Javlin]

Interesting that the GFS forecasts it to strengthen tomorrow right before landfall while it tracks over the gulf stream.

The presentation tonight looks better than it did earlier some could cloud tops coming back with a nice wrap.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

[GeneratorPower]

You guys make me smile.

Yeah I’m one of those crazy chasers.

Haven’t showered in 4 days and have been sleeping in my trusty truck.

I’m in a great location so I think I’ll read my book, get some sleep and see what the morning brings.

Came all the way from Houston so maybe I’ll hang out to see what Florence is going to do.

Just goes to show that even with the world’s biggest super-computers working 24/7 on this storm we still don’t know everything lol.

Roads will be clear with all the evacs out of the way. Hang in Wilmington tonight then maybe follow her southwest.

[NDG]

GFS has Florence just move 124 miles between tomorrow afternoon and Friday afternoon, that's an average of only 5 mph. Landfall Friday morning just like it showed at previous 18z & 12z runs.

[bjackrian]

Some decent lightning detected by GOES in the southwest portion of the inner circulation over the last 15-20 minutes or so.

[meriland29]

Some decent lightning detected by GOES in the southwest portion of the inner circulation over the last 15-20 minutes or so.

What does that mean

[FLpanhandle91]

Much improved IR presentation as the night progresses. Has the core finally gotten itself together? I wonder what microwave looks like.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I'm not 100% sure this is the exact number (I'm still testing the program I wrote that does these calculations), but using the 00Z best track data, I end up with Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) of 65.718 TJ and a Surge Destruction Potential (SDP) of 4.116.

I have it in real time in my best track system. Bottom right corner:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/mode ... rack&ike=1
I usually have the IKE value turned off. It can be turned on at the top of the page.

My values are a tiny bit different. I used this:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php

That page says:

"Update: Please note that IKE calculations prior to October 23, 2012 used a surface air density 0f 1.0 Kg per cubic meter. Current calculations (after October 23, 2012) use a more representative value of 1.15 kg/cubic meter based on GPS sonde measurements in hurricanes."

[FLpanhandle91]

Some decent lightning detected by GOES in the southwest portion of the inner circulation over the last 15-20 minutes or so.

What does that mean

Thunderstorms near the core is a good indicator of an intensifying system.

[psyclone]

The system looks markedly better now than a few hours ago. it's kind of been like this its whole life. Hot and cold. this thing has time and warm water to wind back up if the shear abates.