ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

My parents are riding it out in Hampstead, just North of Wilmington. Their golf course neighborhood flooded a few weeks ago from heavy rains. Brother told me it was up to his bumper. They may be one of the many flood stories we may see if rain totals get anywhere close to estimates..

[sponger]

Looks like it's for real this time. Pressure is about 3mb lower than the last pass...

Looking far healthier!

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-Bermuda-07-48-1-100-1&checked=map-plot&colorbar=undefined

[MississippiWx]

The GFS shows the upper level winds relaxing from now until landfall. It even shows deepening by 15mb or so. She could very much restrengthen to a major hurricane again.

[emeraldislenc]

That would be something if it got that strong again. So many people felt it was going to weaken

[sbcc]

Could be a Gulf Stream boost...See if pressure drops...

Wondering if that was the case, in combination with lessening shear. The pressure drop happened on the last recon pass and looking more impressive on the IR presentation. Good call.

[psyclone]

deep convection is quickly expanding all around the center. I believe the GFS forecast of respectable deepening is very possible. it may be underway now

[bigGbear]

Whatever problems there were on the SW quadrant appear to have disappeared with a vengeance.

[Laminar]

It’s almost as if she’s trying to make up for the time lost in that SW quadrant. If she stays healthy and hungry all night, there are going to be some surprised folk in the morning.

[ScottNAtlanta]

On microwave it looks like an EWRC is mid way through with a larger outer ring. Its not going to take off if thats the case

[emeraldislenc]

What is the motion now?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Cat 3 at 2am update?

[HDGator]

Whatever problems there were on the SW quadrant appear to have disappeared with a vengeance.

I'm really surprised how much the satellite image shows Florence has rebuilt the SW quadrant. I'm really concerned about where she is headed and what her intentions are with regards to restrengthening. She seems to be taking a strong form. I'm going to sit back and see what happens.

[stormhunter7]

Looks like Air Force Recon latest pass might show pressure drop has halted?

[emeraldislenc]

Do you think that is possible?

[Condor]

So you think it could re strengthen that much?

Even in the best conditions, it can only strengthen so much in 24 to 48 hours. I'm more concerned about the size of the current wind field and how much water is piling up to create a surge on the coast. I don't see it in a weakening phase at this hour though it's appeared to struggle over this afternoon and early evening.

It's not a time to let your guard down; but pay attention to the NHC and official news sources for local instructions.
Take care and stay safe!

Andrew, Charley, and Opal all intensified extremely fast within 10 hours of making landfall during a eye wall correction

[sikkar]

The new eye is humongous.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The hurricane force surface winds recon is reporting go a LONG way away from the center.

[stormhunter7]

Peak SFMR winds in last two hours... Only 80kts or so.... Hmm highest flight level around 105kts?

[sponger]

If you look at the IR, shear has not abated, it is simply moving past it into a more favorable environment.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir

[HDGator]

So you think it could re strengthen that much?

Even in the best conditions, it can only strengthen so much in 24 to 48 hours. I'm more concerned about the size of the current wind field and how much water is piling up to create a surge on the coast. I don't see it in a weakening phase at this hour though it's appeared to struggle over this afternoon and early evening.

It's not a time to let your guard down; but pay attention to the NHC and official news sources for local instructions.
Take care and stay safe!

Andrew, Charley, and Opal all intensified extremely fast within 10 hours of making landfall during a eye wall correction

Granted, let's hope and pray that Florence isn't getting her move on with a short time till landfall. It's bad enough that we're seeing an inflection in the track guidance at the coastline leading to a potential Southwest drift along the coast. Let's not link that with a reorganized and strengthening hurricane at the same time.