ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

Some folks I know there in that area believe it is a "shelter in place storm." I disagree with that stream of thought and have shared my disagreement, but to no avail.

If you can, mention to them the 83 ft wave. Tell them they also recorded some in the 50 ft + range, as well. This is not something you can survive.

I did yesterday, when I posted that number in chat. That was when I first heard about it. The live Frying Pan Ocean Cam has shown quite a bit of deterioration in the short while I have had it up as well.

All we can do is try.

If they refuse and are within the surge areas or even close, they need to write their names on their arm.

[NDG]

Pressure appears to be dropping in this pass. No stronger winds found, however.

Yeah, it has dropped a mb or two.

[BobHarlem]

Does anybody have links to webcams in storm surge areas?

Other thread

but this one has a lot of time lapses:

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animatio ... %282018%29

edit: Easiest to see the water creeping up on the New Bern camera there.

[tolakram]

[NDG]

Per the last to recon fixes, Florence is now moving at 12.6 mph, down from 17 mph last night.
After moving WNW earlier this morning it did a nice NW jog during the past 2 hours.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tallywx]

Water temp at Wrightsville Beach as of this hour is 85.5F. Not the usual upper 70s you’d expect. This thing will have warm water all the way in.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=jmpn7

[dizzyfish]

Those second guessing close to the coast, remember the NHC reported a wave height of 83 ft to the ne of the center yesterday. Please go. It isn’t worth it. Imagine one even a quarter that hitting the coastline.

Some folks I know there in that area believe it is a "shelter in place storm." I disagree with that stream of thought and have shared my disagreement, but to no avail.

You are not alone my friend.

Thought I had my friend on Pamlico Sound out the other day. She tells me this morning they will stay. She said the local weather is saying the max winds will be 50 to 70 and only 4 - 8" of rain. I can't seem to get SURGE through her hard head. She is focused only on the rain and wind.

So frustrating.

Sorry for the vent.

[seahawkjd]

Is it still staying north of the path? I can't find a loop that will let me superimpose the track on it. (btw I evacuated to Greenville so I'm no longer at the coast.

[tolakram]

Is it still staying north of the path? I can't find a loop that will let me superimpose the track on it. (btw I evacuated to Greenville so I'm no longer at the coast.

Still on track, maybe a hair north. This old floater loop works ok but can take a while to load.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/06L/html5-vis-short.html

[sweetpea]

Those second guessing close to the coast, remember the NHC reported a wave height of 83 ft to the ne of the center yesterday. Please go. It isn’t worth it. Imagine one even a quarter that hitting the coastline.

Some folks I know there in that area believe it is a "shelter in place storm." I disagree with that stream of thought and have shared my disagreement, but to no avail.

You are not alone my friend.

Thought I had my friend on Pamlico Sound out the other day. She tells me this morning they will stay. She said the local weather is saying the max winds will be 50 to 70 and only 4 - 8" of rain. I can't seem to get SURGE through her hard head. She is focused only on the rain and wind.

So frustrating.

Sorry for the vent.

It is frustrating and upsetting, my cousin lives in Avon and is staying. All we can do is hope and pray that everyone makes it through this storm ok.

[Cypresso]

[emeraldislenc]

So far the conditions at Emerald Isle are not too bad no rain yet and the wind is picking up

[tolakram]

619
URNT12 KNHC 131354
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062018
A. 13/13:25:30Z
B. 33.33 deg N 075.35 deg W
C. 700 mb 2720 m
D. 955 mb
E. 100 deg 6 kt
F. OPEN SE
G. C20
H. 72 kt
I. 297 deg 12 nm 13:22:00Z
J. 046 deg 85 kt
K. 300 deg 48 nm 13:10:30Z
L. 68 kt
M. 127 deg 20 nm 13:32:00Z
N. 218 deg 84 kt
O. 126 deg 19 nm 13:31:30Z
P. 11 C / 3049 m
Q. 16 C / 3045 m
R. NA / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF302 1406A FLORENCE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 90 KT 046 / 21 NM 11:52:00Z
;

[artist]

Vortex shows 2 mb drop in this latest pass.

[invest man]

Is it still staying north of the path? I can't find a loop that will let me superimpose the track on it. (btw I evacuated to Greenville so I'm no longer at the coast.

Does look to be coming in a little north of track however a move to the WNW is expected then W in the short term. Sitting in New Bern area. I think it will get close to 34.5n before a slow drift back to the west closer to Jacksonville which will put Crystal Coast and New Bern Area in the NE quad for a very long ride! IM

[tolakram]

[Bunkertor]

Strenghtening, says Janek Zimmer

[ronjon]

Cape Lookout near Morehead City. Sustained 42 kts, Gusts to 50 kts. and pressure only 29.80 inches!

CAPE LOOKOUT 1300 30/ 42/ 50 1008.8

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=clkn7&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT