ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

WTNT61 KNHC 131355
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1000 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...HEAVY RAINBANDS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
NOAA Doppler weather radars from Morehead City and Wilmington,
North Carolina, indicate that Florence has changed little. Maximum
sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h). The latest minimum
central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 955 mb (28.20
inches). NOAA Buoy 41025, located near Diamond Shoals, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph...87 km/h
and a gust to 59 mph...94 km/h. A wind gust to 51 mph...81 km/h was
recently reported in Morehead City, North Carolina.


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 75.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[jdjaguar]

Those second guessing close to the coast, remember the NHC reported a wave height of 83 ft to the ne of the center yesterday. Please go. It isn’t worth it. Imagine one even a quarter that hitting the coastline.

Some folks I know there in that area believe it is a "shelter in place storm." I disagree with that stream of thought and have shared my disagreement, but to no avail.

You are not alone my friend.

Thought I had my friend on Pamlico Sound out the other day. She tells me this morning they will stay. She said the local weather is saying the max winds will be 50 to 70 and only 4 - 8" of rain. I can't seem to get SURGE through her hard head. She is focused only on the rain and wind.

So frustrating.

Sorry for the vent.

It all depends on her elevation and expected storm surge for her locale.
Does she know her elevation above sea level?

Latest Surge estimates per NHC

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

[Raebie]

So far the conditions at Emerald Isle are not too bad no rain yet and the wind is picking up

You're not there, right? They have mandatory evacuations.

[SoupBone]

So far the conditions at Emerald Isle are not too bad no rain yet and the wind is picking up

You're not there, right? They have mandatory evacuations.

I think he's the mayor? Maybe I misread that a few days ago.

[artist]

From Mark Sudduths twitter seen on his live cams

Mark Sudduth
Mark Sudduth
@hurricanetrack
·
3h
From our remote cam in Oriental NC: last night just after sunset vs now
#HurricaneFlorence

#StormSurge

[Raebie]

So far the conditions at Emerald Isle are not too bad no rain yet and the wind is picking up

You're not there, right? They have mandatory evacuations.

I think he's the mayor? Maybe I misread that a few days ago.

Well if he is I hope he's not planning to go down with the ship.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1040241137188044800

[artist]

Reminder, wave height is on top of surge height. 13 ft storm surge + even a 15 ft wave height = 28 ft of water coming at you. Standard one story building height is 10- 15 ft.

[jasons2k]

There’s a tremendous number of seasoned Conchs in the Keys who never leave, but after Irma said they would never, ever stay again.

Some people just never learn from others, unfortunately.

[SCHawkFan]

http://www.fishtrack.com/fishing-cam/oceanana-pier_108845

[ozonepete]

People were talking about cooler water along the coast. Checked some of the buoys and along the coast they are reporting 83 degrees +. That is not that cool.

Forecasters know it's very warm, but it's very shallow. Hurricanes need the high water temp to extend deep down since they deplete the warmth out of the surface water really quickly. Even over 90F SSTs, if it's shallow they will quickly cool that water down since no deeper warm water can come up to replace the cooling surface water. Watch how quickly those SSTs at the coast will cool as Florence stalls or meanders over them.

[artist]

There’s a tremendous number of seasoned Conchs in the Keys who never leave, but after Irma said they would never, ever stay again.

Some people just never learn from others, unfortunately.

And a number that stayed never made it out alive.

[dizzyfish]

Some folks I know there in that area believe it is a "shelter in place storm." I disagree with that stream of thought and have shared my disagreement, but to no avail.

You are not alone my friend.

Thought I had my friend on Pamlico Sound out the other day. She tells me this morning they will stay. She said the local weather is saying the max winds will be 50 to 70 and only 4 - 8" of rain. I can't seem to get SURGE through her hard head. She is focused only on the rain and wind.

So frustrating.

Sorry for the vent.

It all depends on her elevation and expected storm surge for her locale.
Does she know her elevation above sea level?

Latest Surge estimates per NHC

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

Her elevation is approx 3 FEET. I've given her links to everything I can think of and have related stories from here. I explained waves on top of surge. UGH!

[jdjaguar]

Reminder, wave height is on top of surge height. 13 ft storm surge + even a 15 ft wave height = 28 ft of water coming at you. Standard one story building height is 10- 15 ft.

Not trying to be argumentative, while that may be true if you live right on the beach, its not entirely accurate for inland locales.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

[jdjaguar]

Her elevation is approx 3 FEET. I've given her links to everything I can think of and have related stories from here. I explained waves on top of surge. UGH!

1 or 2 story house?

[dizzyfish]

1 or 2 story house?

2 story. Directly on the Pungo River/Pamlico Sound.

[meriland29]

Is recon still in her?

[GCANE]

Convective cap continues to lift further inland with increasing dewpoints.
Land interaction is minimal.

[tolakram]

Is recon still in her?

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/jeffhampton56/status/1040242850787717120