ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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LarryWx
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3981 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:41 pm

I'm guessing the current only a little N of W (280ish?) motion is due to a wobble and that it will resume a WNW motion later this afternoon. However, IF she doesn't then the Euro is going to need to start being considered much more heavily instead of being treated as just a left biased outlier.

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Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3982 Postby craptacular » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:44 pm

chris_fit wrote:When is next recon?


Scheduled to take off shortly (3pm EDT) and get first center fix at 4:30pm EDT. They are operating on a schedule so that there shouldn't be more than 3 hours between the last fix of one flight and the first fix of the next flight.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3983 Postby artist » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:45 pm

Michael Ventrice
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30s
Buoy report from Cape Lookout. Pressure readings off the chart with gusts >60mph due to Hurricane Florence

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3984 Postby artist » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:46 pm

craptacular wrote:
chris_fit wrote:When is next recon?


Scheduled to take off shortly (3pm EDT) and get first center fix at 4:30pm EDT. They are operating on a schedule so that there shouldn't be more than 3 hours between the last fix of one flight and the first fix of the next flight.

They are already on their way in. Another waiting for takeoff.
Last edited by artist on Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3985 Postby Condor » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:48 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3986 Postby MacTavish » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:49 pm

Could be starting to cycle out some of that dry air. Dry slot on the east side is shrinking pretty quickly on radar and it looks like the eastern eyewall is trying to fill.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3987 Postby Bunkertor » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:49 pm

tolakram wrote:86,000 people watching the Frying Pan cam and they decide to turn on chat. lol. Just a stream of nonstop unreadable text.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deG4NxkouGM&feature=youtu.be

117.000 :eek:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3988 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:53 pm



Yes - IMO - While convection does not look as good as a few hours ago, it does look like it's contracting - which normally indicates increase in wind speed
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3989 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:53 pm

Jeff is live

[youtube]https://youtu.be/gQb5V57jlxo[/youtube]
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3990 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:54 pm

 https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/1040312111279362048


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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3991 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:55 pm

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1040312765649510400


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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3992 Postby O Town » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:02 pm


lol, you mean the creepy sad face? Or are you being serious?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3993 Postby sbcc » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:03 pm



"We're in a safe place..."

It looks like maybe a foot or two of elevation between this guy's "safe place" and the incoming surge. How well is that going to work out for him?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3994 Postby Condor » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:04 pm

O Town wrote:

lol, you mean the creepy sad face? Or are you being serious?


lol I see that now didnt notice it before

Was more asking what people are seeing as far as the chance of the eyewall closing up?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3995 Postby capepoint » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:07 pm

WCTI12.com has live coverage from Morehead City, Topsail Beach, New Bern, and Jacksonville.

Currently in Morehead City, surge flooding is occurring in some areas. Also I know there is soundside surge flooding on Bogue Banks, oceanfront flooding on Topsail Island, and the Pamlico sound is flooding Eastern Carteret County. Hwy 12 between Atlantic and Cedar Island is under water. Neuse river flooding areas around New Bern. Pressure is 29.56 and falling rapidly. winds at about 40 with gusts over 60
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3996 Postby aperson » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:13 pm

Condor wrote:
O Town wrote:

lol, you mean the creepy sad face? Or are you being serious?


lol I see that now didnt notice it before

Was more asking what people are seeing as far as the chance of the eyewall closing up?


We're at the range where your best tool to track eyewall structure is radar. As per KMHX radar, the eyewall does appear to be closing up.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3997 Postby southerngale » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:14 pm

Image

Storm surge getting fairly high now in Oriental https://t.co/fDFocF7TFQ
Mark Sudduth
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3998 Postby jdjaguar » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:15 pm

Condor wrote:
O Town wrote:

lol, you mean the creepy sad face? Or are you being serious?


lol I see that now didnt notice it before

Was more asking what people are seeing as far as the chance of the eyewall closing up?


judging from the radar it does appear to be reforming
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3999 Postby ozonepete » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:16 pm

From satellite but especially radar, it looks like this has seriously slowed down now. I am very curious what the next Recon fix on motion will show.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4000 Postby NC_Cyclone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:17 pm

Wow, in an hour the outer eyewall has almost entirely closed off. Radar indicates this thing is tightening rapidly. May see some explosive growth this afternoon with the outer wall taking over
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