EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

90%/100%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico, have become better organized over the past 24 hours.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression or storm is
likely to form within the next day or so, well south of the coast
of Mexico. Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[cycloneye]

18 SHIP run is very bullish as well other ones.GFS is at the bottom.

[Yellow Evan]

29/1745 UTC 11.1N 99.1W T1.0/1.0 97E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

Has around four days.

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972018 06/29/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 53 62 73 83 95 100 97
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 53 62 73 83 95 100 97
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 32 34 40 46 54 64 79 93 99 89
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 14 14 15 15 11 11 8 10 8 9 5 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -6 -5 -2 -3 -4 -3 -4 -1 5 1
SHEAR DIR 67 69 56 37 39 28 32 13 54 57 2 359 242
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.5 28.4 27.7 28.6 27.9 28.6 27.0 24.7
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 147 149 149 141 151 143 151 136 114
200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -54.7 -54.5 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.1 -52.1 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 7 8 7 6 3
700-500 MB RH 81 78 77 78 76 73 73 72 73 68 65 63 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 15 16 20 24 29 32 33
850 MB ENV VOR 29 27 32 39 49 55 57 52 58 73 71 59 41
200 MB DIV 81 95 87 78 73 52 66 86 73 100 83 28 -21
700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 0 -3 -3 7 7
LAND (KM) 699 719 743 775 799 845 859 891 960 1058 1072 1002 1090
LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.6 11.2 12.0 12.7 13.3 14.2 16.2 18.1
LONG(DEG W) 99.1 99.9 100.8 101.8 102.8 104.7 106.6 108.5 110.7 112.6 114.4 116.4 120.0
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 17 21
HEAT CONTENT 24 27 33 35 29 29 49 42 38 15 12 1 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 35. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. 9.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 16. 24. 27. 27.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 28. 37. 48. 58. 70. 75. 72.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 99.1

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 06/29/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 6.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.26 1.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.27 1.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 4.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.89 -4.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.34 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.0% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% 18.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.1% 8.3% 3.6% 1.4% 1.7% 5.8% 51.1% 60.5%
Bayesian: 0.2% 8.1% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 1.5% 14.3%
Consensus: 0.4% 12.1% 7.9% 0.5% 0.6% 7.6% 23.5% 24.9%
DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 7.0% 35.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 06/29/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Look at that banding.Is a TD or very close to be.

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF.

[Kingarabian]

12z UKMET down to 959mb

[cycloneye]

12z HMON to cat 3.

[Kingarabian]

Is this not is a tropical storm lol.

[cycloneye]

I will be bold here and predict NHC will upgrade to Tropical Storm Fabio in the next 6-12 hours skipping TD.However,I wont be dissapointed if they go with TD.

[1900hurricane]

Based on visible imagery, I'd green-light 97E for classification. I would not skip to TS status though, especially since the most recent partial ASCAT pass only had winds of 20-25 kt at maximum.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS is more stronger.

[cycloneye]

While shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area
of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico, continues to show signs of organization, visible satellite
imagery indicates that the system does not yet have a well-defined
center. However, environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is
likely to form during the next day or so well south of the coast of
Mexico. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[cycloneye]

18z FV3 is more stronger.

[cycloneye]

SAB still at 1.0.

TXPZ27 KNES 300002
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97E)

B. 29/2345Z

C. 10.0N

D. 100.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER RELOCATED TO THE SOUTH BUT STILL OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL, LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES AND A CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A SMALL
COLD OVERCAST. THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET
AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE
CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

EP, 97, 2018063000, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1000W, 25, 1009, DB

[cycloneye]

SHIP to cat 3.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972018 06/30/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 62 74 85 94 103 103 99
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 62 74 85 94 103 103 99
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 35 43 55 70 84 94 88 75
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 15 11 11 6 9 8 3 9 2 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -5 -5 -3 -2 -4 -1 -2 0 5 4 6
SHEAR DIR 60 46 39 38 44 11 33 7 31 1 305 22 294
SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.1 28.5 28.1 28.5 27.6 26.9 25.7
POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 151 148 147 150 146 150 145 150 142 135 122
200 MB T (C) -54.5 -55.1 -55.2 -54.6 -54.1 -54.7 -53.5 -54.1 -52.9 -53.5 -51.8 -52.4 -51.9
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 3
700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 76 74 73 73 73 71 70 67 68 65
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 15 18 22 27 31 37 37 35
850 MB ENV VOR 28 28 38 46 51 49 48 58 73 72 78 65 48
200 MB DIV 124 116 85 68 67 68 104 115 139 100 85 22 25
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -2 1 -3 0 -2 4 15 11
LAND (KM) 733 753 770 790 800 803 832 905 1018 1075 1070 1175 1285
LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 11.3 12.1 12.8 13.4 14.0 15.4 16.5 17.6
LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.8 101.7 102.6 103.5 105.6 107.7 110.0 112.2 114.0 116.4 119.3 122.0
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 10 11 14 15 15
HEAT CONTENT 28 33 35 30 26 40 56 37 18 12 4 1 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 33. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 11. 19. 26. 35. 33. 30.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 37. 49. 60. 69. 78. 78. 74.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 100.0

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 06/30/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 6.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.27 2.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.27 1.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.66 4.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 8.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.89 -4.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.6% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 20.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.4% 17.0% 6.8% 3.2% 3.9% 12.9% 64.4% 56.2%
Bayesian: 0.1% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 1.4% 3.3% 22.7%
Consensus: 0.5% 14.5% 9.1% 1.1% 1.3% 10.7% 29.5% 26.3%
DTOPS: 1.0% 22.0% 9.0% 3.0% 0.0% 4.0% 29.0% 46.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 06/30/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[cycloneye]

Look at those bands.This has to be at least a TD but an ASCAT is needed to see if a well defined center is there.

[Chris90]

Tropical tidbits has the 1 minute meso sector imagery available for it, so I'm guessing they are currently watching very closely in preparation for an upgrade. I'd expect it to happen soon. Definitely has looked ready to be called for the past few hours, IMO.