ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[Sciencerocks]

This is awesome looking.

At least for a mdr early july system.

[Twisted-core]

MDR pulsing again.

https://imgur.com/Ylv0mDp

https://imgur.com/HtKLbBd

[LarryWx]

This looks like a TD+ on the visible loop.

[cycloneye]

Remarkable to see this so far east in MDR with the not friendly enviroment around.

[brohavwx]

Latest ASCAT-MetopB pass at around 23:00 UTC (or 7:00 pm local time) shows something starting to happen at the surface between 30-35W just south of 10N ...

[img]https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_50km_METB/zooms/WMBas26.png[img]

The thread to post this is here http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119666

this thread is for model runs, just pointing you in the right direction

Oh, my apologies ... I thought it was discussion on Invest 95L in general ... didn't realise you pigeon-holed One (1) Invest into more than one group ... I guess this is not for me then, as when I'm discussing a topic its one topic/thread. How do you stay focused?

I'll go and try to stay on the 'Discussion' group, if not I will just remove myself, as I am likely to lump one problem/danger/issue/invest/storm/hurricane into the same basket.

[GCANE]

By the time it gets to the islands, GFS is forecasting an ULL in the Bahamas.
TCs usually get shredded in this position (ULL to the NW of the TC).
Need to watch how this plays out when it gets to 50W (as usual).

[cycloneye]

A small area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a concentrated area of showers several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some additional
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic Ocean. Upper-level winds are expected to become less
conducive for development by this weekend when the system approaches
the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[GCANE]

Exceptionally strong vorts 850mb to 500mb for this far east and this early.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

From AMSU / multi-sat wind analysis, could be a boaderline TD.

[Gustywind]

A small area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a concentrated area of showers several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some additional
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic Ocean. Upper-level winds are expected to become less
conducive for development by this weekend when the system approaches
the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Increasing % . Could we deal with a poor barely TD/TS close to the Leewards by the weekend?

[Kazmit]

I took a little break because I did not see anything happening in the Atlantic for a while, and I came back to find this and the system near Bermuda! It's looking quite impressive, and it's barely July.

[cycloneye]

A small area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a concentrated area of showers several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some additional
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic Ocean. Upper-level winds are expected to become less
conducive for development by this weekend when the system approaches
the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Increasing % . Could we deal with a poor barely TD/TS close to the Leewards by the weekend?

Anything is possible however the probable outlook is we get plenty of bad weather Sunday thru Monday but not as a Tropical Depression or Storm.

[brohavwx]

Is this Invest 95L or 92L ... seems to be some confusion as many don't seem to recall anything between 90L & 91L and now, yet I see Monterey/Naval - NRL Tropical Cyclone Page and everyone else gone for 95L. ???

[GCANE]

Even though it'll be hitting some strong shear by the time it gets to the islands, it'll also be hitting some high theta-e air.
The shear and the high theta-e very likely will kick off some explosive MCS's .
Hot towers could kick in an anti-cyclone and push out the shear not to mention any convective debris washing out the ULL.
Given the strong vorts at this point, this is a system to watch closely past 50W.

[NotSparta]

Is this Invest 95L or 92L ... seems to be some confusion as many don't seem to recall anything between 90L & 91L and now, yet I see Monterey/Naval - NRL Tropical Cyclone Page and everyone else gone for 95L. ???

seems to have been an error but NHC is going with it I guess

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

Location: 10.0°N 34.9°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM

[brohavwx]

Checking Wunderground that have ...

Invest 95l - Last Updated: 7/4/2018, 8:00:00 AM (SA Western Standard Time)

Location: 10 N 34.9 W
Movement: N/A at mph
Wind: 30 mph
Pressure: 29.8 in

While I agree with the 34.9W the turning is clearly more closer to 10.5 or 10.6N and even the VIS satellite imagery shows its well and to the north of the 10.0N line for the 1200 UTC or 8 AM image, even edging pass 35W now that I look at it again ... clipping along quite fast. Lots of moisture to the south in the ITCZ should it catch hold of it and pull it in, but with Sahara Dry air to the north and its WNW direction that could be iffy.

[cycloneye]

[brohavwx]

Of course, its not vertically stacked properly as yet - so tuning could be at various levels at various points - typical for developing systems. Still I always lean towards my VIS images, especially since its about 10 AM or so where the system is and sun angle high.

[brohavwx]

Is this Invest 95L or 92L ... seems to be some confusion as many don't seem to recall anything between 90L & 91L and now, yet I see Monterey/Naval - NRL Tropical Cyclone Page and everyone else gone for 95L. ???

seems to have been an error but NHC is going with it I guess

I do seem to recall more than two systems being watched so far this year, but in all honesty as it was so early I didn't pay that much attention and my eye is usually more to the east of the Caribbean as Barbados is out-front here and the next stop (in distance) after the Cape Verdes.

[wxman57]

Looked better yesterday. The environment gets more hostile the farther west it tracks. If it was in the Gulf, it would have been classified as a TD yesterday, but since it's far out to sea and will likely fall apart soon, it's not being upgraded.