WPAC: YUTU - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

JMA 6z back to 100 kt

2018OCT26 061000 6.9 917.5 137.4 6.9 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.42 -77.09 EYE 29 IR 72.1 16.93 -138.96 ARCHER HIM-8 19.9

[mrbagyo]

It's having trouble clearing the eye due to restricted southern outflow.

[euro6208]

Track continues to shift south.

[Hayabusa]

2018OCT26 074000 7.0 914.8 140.0 7.0 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 8.84 -78.52 EYE 24 IR 72.1 17.06 -138.62 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1

[Hayabusa]

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

Almost all ECMWF ensemble members are now taking Yutu into Luzon.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 OCT 2018 Time : 084000 UTC
Lat : 17:03:35 N Lon : 138:21:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 911.8mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : -3.1C Cloud Region Temp : -78.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 160nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.2 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

Should have went with 140 knots. Like ADT, SATCON is around Cat 5... at 142 knots.

[mrbagyo]

135 to 140 would be fair to me. The structure still looks a lil bit ragged.

[Hayabusa]

2018OCT26 091000 7.1 911.8 143.0 7.1 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 6.22 -79.57 EYE 23 IR 76.5 17.13 -138.29 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2

[euro6208]

Numbers keep going up.

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10260849
SATCON: MSLP = 912 hPa MSW = 153 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 146.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 142 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 205 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -2.7 knots Source: MW

Member Estimates

ADT: 909 hPa 146 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT260940
CIMSS AMSU: 915 hPa 146 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10260639
ATMS: 920.0 hPa 137.3 knots Date: 10260421
SSMIS: 912.0 hPa 143.0 knots Date: 10260849
CIRA ATMS: 943 hPa 114 knots Date: 10260332

[Hayabusa]

Convection is very cold but eye hasn't fully cleared yet
2018OCT26 111000 7.2 908.7 146.0 7.2 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -6.51 -81.22 EYE 21 IR 77.2 17.16 -137.85 ARCHER HIM-8 20.4

[mrbagyo]

What's the current ACE for Yutu?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1055784590491693057

[cycloneye]

What's the current ACE for Yutu?

According to CSU is at 23.5 but other measurements by others have it a little higher.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Rea ... estpacific

[NDG]

Those aren't wooden roofs - I believe they used GI sheets.
The rafter / truss are wood though. Pretty standard in the Pacific.

About the same as a wooden roof if not worst because they are even lighter, screwed into wooden trusses does not provide much security.
I am sure a family's income has a lot to do with not going with the more expensive concrete roof.

[mrbagyo]

Those aren't wooden roofs - I believe they used GI sheets.
The rafter / truss are wood though. Pretty standard in the Pacific.

About the same as a wooden roof if not worst because they are even lighter, screwed into wooden trusses does not provide much security.
I am sure a family's income has a lot to do with not going with the more expensive concrete roof.

True, solid concrete slab roofing is way much more expensive plus you gotta put waterproofing in it ( additional cost).

Concrete slab roofing is more commonly used in commercial establishments rather than residential.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1055746129881690112

[Hayabusa]

31W YUTU 181026 1200 17.2N 137.6E WPAC 135 923