ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

[Ken711]

I hate to make comparisons, but this could be North Carolina’s Sandy. Can’t tell you how many people up here kept discrediting Sandy based on the fact that it went from a category two, down to a category one/extra tropical system and wrote it off, only to be surprised when their homes were completely flooded out and without power for weeks. Don’t use wind speed as a measurement for storm intensity or destructive power. M

Really the big impact is Florence is in no hurry to move along. That's going to be the biggest factor to the damage that will start piling up.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like it is strengthening now

I am afraid it is. Deep convection has just about completed wrapping back around the eyewall per radar and satellite imagery and pressure continues to fall.

[jdjaguar]

[quoteurl][/quote]

That wind be a whipping now!

32 miles offshore correct?

[syfr]

Look at all tilts. Sampling between 10kft on a half degree tilt on the northern edge of the slot and over 40kft with a 3.1degree tilt on the south end.


What does this indicate?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Outage Update - 2200z
North Carolina: 66,530
South Carolina: 2,067
Virginia: 953

Winds picking up in North Carolina...

[abajan]

Interesting discussion with meteorologists, in Mark Sudduth's home in Wilmington NC.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1040357079826014208

[dizzyfish]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdUnCoKWcww

Atlantic Beach Pier - The waves are crazy and I saw the end of the pier wobble.

[mcheer23]

I remember when the GFS showed Flo undergoing RI right by the coast...

[tolakram]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdUnCoKWcww

Atlantic Beach Pier - The waves are crazy and I saw the end of the pier wobble.

Yea, it's moving back and forth!

[northjaxpro]

The Gulf Stream is working its mojo again unfortunately. Florence sure looks like she is going through an intensification phase right now!

[CrazyC83]

Winds back to 105 mph in the latest update. Although I do think it was a category 1 for a while earlier today.

[Kazmit]

Looks like it is strengthening now

I am afraid it is. Deep convection has just about completed wrapping back around the eyewall per radar and satellite imagery and pressure continues to fall.

Luckily it won't have too much time unless it stalls completely.

[PTPatrick]

I will be very interested to see how surge ends up west of topsail. Much of the area west of Morehead would have had offshore all day and will for a while longer. Sure winds will shift eventually and they will have surge. But it will mitigate it some I think. The angle for surge as it approaches the coast is best from topsail east. Surge isn’t just onshore flow...the stalling and slight weakening, while it will not drop the surge a huge amount, should help

[Ken711]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdUnCoKWcww

Atlantic Beach Pier - The waves are crazy and I saw the end of the pier wobble.

Yeah, that pier is probably go to give way from the pounding this is going to take over such a long period.

[meriland29]

If it wraps around a recon finds higher rather than lower winds...then I might believe it still can strengthen. She has been blowing up cloud tops all day and if it werent for recon sampling her, you would almost be certain she is getting stronger....yet she keeps weakening consistently. You can see that still in the new recon below my post.

[tolakram]

046
URNT12 KNHC 132151 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062018
A. 13/21:23:20Z
B. 33.85 deg N 076.23 deg W
C. 700 mb 2711 m
D. 956 mb
E. 050 deg 11 kt
F. OPEN SE
G. C24
H. 70 kt
I. 303 deg 14 nm 21:19:00Z
J. 044 deg 85 kt
K. 307 deg 34 nm 21:13:00Z
L. 62 kt
M. 125 deg 15 nm 21:27:30Z
N. 215 deg 93 kt
O. 129 deg 62 nm 21:42:00Z
P. 10 C / 3052 m
Q. 16 C / 3046 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF306 1606A FLORENCE OB 11 CCA
MAX FL WIND 93 KT 129 / 62 NM 20:42:00Z
;

[Blinhart]

Yes Atlantic Beach and Emerald Isle under mandatory evacuation. I am at Emerald Isle wind and rain has picked up.

Make sure the bridge is still open when you need to high tail it out.

They are the mayor of Emerald Isle so got the inside scope of when it will be closed.

[tolakram]

984
WTNT61 KNHC 132157
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
600 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...600 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
PAMLICO SOUND...

A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a gust to 84
mph (135 km/h). A private weather station in Davis, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) and a wind
gust of 75 mph (121 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon,
North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89
km/h) and a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h).

Water levels are increasingly quickly on the western side of
Pamlico Sound. A gauge at Cedar Island, North Carolina, recently
recorded a water height of about 4 feet above normal levels.


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 76.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Beven