WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

[1900hurricane]

165 kt SSMIS... didn't expect that.

[1900hurricane]

That part in the algorithm doesn't make sense. Why would they do that? Thats just crazy.

RMS error lines up better with JTWC best track. Of course, this also assumes that the quality of JTWC best track lines up with NHC best track.

[euro6208]

Will be interesting to see what JTWC does at 00z.

[1900hurricane]

JTWC dropped the pressure 1 mb.

26W MANGKHUT 180912 0000 13.9N 136.2E WPAC 140 916

[euro6208]

Remains 140. Speechless.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09112118
SATCON: MSLP = 902 hPa MSW = 157 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 151.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 142 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 215 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -1.9 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 919 hPa 137 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP112340
CIMSS AMSU: 913 hPa 153 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09111934
ATMS: 912.4 hPa 151.3 knots Date: 09111648
SSMIS: 894.0 hPa 165.0 knots Date: 09112118
CIRA ATMS: 920 hPa 133 knots Date: 09111648

[mrbagyo]

That part in the algorithm doesn't make sense. Why would they do that? Thats just crazy.

RMS error lines up better with JTWC best track. Of course, this also assumes that the quality of JTWC best track lines up with NHC best track.

Thanks for this info.
JTWC best track is known to be more on the conservative side more often than not. We really need recon and more ground obs (Severely lacking in the deep tropics) to fine tune the ADT algorithm. That .25T reduction on intense WPAC / SHem storms is eyebrow raising.

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, eyewall replacement is coming.

[dexterlabio]

Yeah, eyewall replacement is coming.

https://i.imgur.com/W9zE3qY.jpg

Does it look like to be an incipient process or a "destructive" one? Can't help but recall Haima from 2016, almost the same track and intensity though that cyclone lacked good poleward outflow.

[euro6208]

Why just follow Dvorak?

WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING
NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
USING ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A ROUND,
26 NM WIDE EYE AND INTENSE RAIN BANDS EXTENDING 200 NM FROM THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KTS) FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29-30 C), AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY TWO TUTT CELLS, ONE
TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. BY TAU 12, STY 26W WILL HAVE TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
STR REORIENTS. CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW STY 26W TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF
145 KTS BY TAU 12 BEFORE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW BECOMES LESS ENHANCED.
BY TAU 72, LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON WILL HELP REDUCE THE
INTENSITY TO 120 KTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED TO THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS 5 TO 15 KTS ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS. THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, WITH
JUST OVER 70 NM OF SPREAD BY TAU 72. FOR THAT REASON, CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY 26W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STR ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH
OF HONG KONG SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96. LAND INTERACTION, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND DIMINISHED OUTFLOW WILL ACCELERATE WEAKENING,
BRINGING THE INTENSITY TO 70 KTS BY TAU 120. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN STRONG AGREEMENT, WITH CTCX AND JGSM BEING SLIGHT SOUTHERN
OUTLIERS, THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS, IS HIGH.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Looks like the WNW turn has begun

[tatlopuyo]

Just a question.. What will be the effect of this supertyphoon in the ncr/cavite area the coming days? What kind of weather condition do we have to expect in terms of wind and rain?

[dexterlabio]

Just a question.. What will be the effect of this supertyphoon in the ncr/cavite area the coming days? What kind of weather condition do we have to expect in terms of wind and rain?

PAGASA said earlier that Manila will only be under the outer band of Mangkhut, similar case with Haima/Lawin two years ago. Although, there might be enhanced rain as the southwest monsoon season is still on.

[Thon1357]

I think the WNW run has started late. It shall bring the typhoon to Luzon much closer than the earlier forecasts.
Assuming that it will follow the current track forecast, I think our place here in Bicol will be spared by the typhoon itself but the monsoon will be the big problem. Based on experience, the strengthened SW monsoon dumps a lot of rain causing floods and landslides on some places. It is also very windy that it feels like you're also inside the typhoon.
Even just the SW monsoon itself, without any typhoon can cause a lot of flooding especially on the NCR

[Thon1357]

Oh boy, latest track by PAGASA definitely going to hit the tip

http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/tropical-cyclone-advisory

[xtyphooncyclonex]

26W MANGKHUT 180912 0600 14.0N 135.2E WPAC 150 911

[Highteeld]

26W MANGKHUT 180912 0600 14.0N 135.2E WPAC 150 911

Well, that's good, I guess. I agree with the 150 kts quite a bit more than the 140 knots from earlier. Ironic, though, that the best track takes it up to 150 kts during an ERC -- 140 right now is probably accurate while earlier in the day 150-155 was probably accurate. Gotta love the madness of evaluating storms without recon .

[mrbagyo]

JMA, JTWC, PAGASA - all 3 are now showing a landfall in the NE tip of Luzon.

IIRC, first to show that solution was CMA (China).

James Reynolds is goin for this though he hasn't booked a flight yet to Manila.