ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#461 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:19 pm

EquusStorm wrote:Kept at 60, so I suspect might have been a bit stronger in between missions.


They still need to pass through the NE quadrant where the stronger winds are.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#462 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:09 pm

Hello my friends!
Guadeloupe and Martinica are Under an orange alert cyclone related to TT KIRK arrival tommorow.
See chart: http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane
The authorities have decided to closed the schools for tommorow indefinitely...
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#463 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:11 pm

Recon seems to indicate that Kirk is now at 45 knots.

I think this storm probably peaked this morning at 55 knots. Probably been a tropical storm since yesterday afternoon.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#464 Postby Abdullah » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:12 pm

The 0000 Best Track has it at 45 knots.

Does anyone here say ithas a chance of strengthening again???
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#465 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:13 pm

look like wind wont higher and 5pm avd i looking plane report same wind speed as other plane report
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#466 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:14 pm

Abdullah wrote:The 0000 Best Track has it at 45 knots.

Does anyone here say ithas a chance of strengthening again???


Not in the short term, as it is entering a more unfavorable area.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#467 Postby Abdullah » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:30 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
Abdullah wrote:The 0000 Best Track has it at 45 knots.

Does anyone here say ithas a chance of strengthening again???


Not in the short term, as it is entering a more unfavorable area.


I mean long term.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#468 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:32 pm

Well it was interesting for that brief time meteorologically of course.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#469 Postby brohavwx » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:37 pm

Gustywind wrote:Hello my friends!
Guadeloupe and Martinica are Under an orange alert cyclone related to TT KIRK arrival tommorow.
See chart: http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane
The authorities have decided to closed the schools for tommorow indefinitely...


All educational institutions are closed in Barbados for tomorrow too. They are waiting on the 11 PM advisory to decide if we have an island wide close and only essential services.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#470 Postby Weatherwatcher2018 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:46 pm

What effects should barbados expect as the night progresses
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#471 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:46 pm

Well, looks like some of you were right about the weakening. That's a good thing.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#472 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:46 pm

brohavwx wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Hello my friends!
Guadeloupe and Martinica are Under an orange alert cyclone related to TT KIRK arrival tommorow.
See chart: http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane
The authorities have decided to closed the schools for tommorow indefinitely...


All educational institutions are closed in Barbados for tomorrow too. They are waiting on the 11 PM advisory to decide if we have an island wide close and only essential services.

Ok thanks for this info my friend. :)
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#473 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:59 pm

starting get weaker soon could be td or tropical wave
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#474 Postby brohavwx » Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:29 pm

floridasun78 wrote:starting get weaker soon could be td or tropical wave


Depends on what you mean by 'soon' as its just about 10 hours out for us here in Barbados even if it looks like it will pass just to our north. Another 5-6 hours for the other islands like St. Lucia and Martinique.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#475 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:46 pm

brohavwx wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:starting get weaker soon could be td or tropical wave


Depends on what you mean by 'soon' as its just about 10 hours out for us here in Barbados even if it looks like it will pass just to our north. Another 5-6 hours for the other islands like St. Lucia and Martinique.

likely as pass by island put will have still have strong storms
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#476 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:57 pm

brohavwx wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:starting get weaker soon could be td or tropical wave


Depends on what you mean by 'soon' as its just about 10 hours out for us here in Barbados even if it looks like it will pass just to our north. Another 5-6 hours for the other islands like St. Lucia and Martinique.

I advice you to be on your guard as the others islanders like me. We all know how versatile these TT are. Keep watching it!
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#477 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 26, 2018 11:05 pm

What is that area that looks like it might be spinning near 14.0N between 56 and 57W? An hour ago the LLC was noted at 13.0N, 57.0W. So, the area I’m asking about is not the LLC. Is that a mid level center?
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#478 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 26, 2018 11:05 pm

TT Kirk.

26/2345 UTC 13.5N 55.8W T2.5/3.0 KIRK
26/1745 UTC 12.6N 54.7W T3.0/3.0 KIRK
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#479 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 27, 2018 3:04 am

Image
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#480 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:32 am

On Mesoscale 2

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... 000&y=1000

2 Long-Duration Vortical Hot Towers firing.
Displaced east of the CoC due to shear.
Good outflow north and east quads.

TPW picking up over South America.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

Looks to be tapping into it.

Tracking into strong Mid-level and Upper-Level Water Vapor.
Very high CAPE levels in the East Carib.

Seems to be fighting the shear due to the low-level moisture entrainment.
AF309 en-route.
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