WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

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Highteeld
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#481 Postby Highteeld » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:17 pm

Not to be outdone by forecast hour 51, either. HWRF 12z run is comically bad

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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#482 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:36 pm

Good job HWRF...good job

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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#483 Postby Highteeld » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:48 pm

This storm is still going through an eyewall replacement cycle, and still has this satellite presentation. OHC's only increase from here.


Image
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#484 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:00 pm

Damn! :uarrow:
This typhoon just don't want to weaken despite an ongoing ERC
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#485 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:04 pm

866mb over HK. Now that would be total hell on earth. Craziest model run I've ever seen

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Image

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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#486 Postby NotoSans » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:08 pm

:uarrow: LOL that's way more funnier than the GFS runs

Anyway the latest Euro run has continued to trend left.
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#487 Postby Highteeld » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:11 pm

Image
Possibly showing signs of even further intensification
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#488 Postby WAcyclone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:26 pm

Levi's opinion on that ridiculous 12z HWRF run:

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1039939158670811136



I think I will keep the 859 mb Cyclone Pam forecast from the GFS as the "true" record holder for now :D
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#489 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:36 pm

NotoSans wrote::uarrow: LOL that's way more funnier than the GFS runs

Anyway the latest Euro run has continued to trend left.


Here's the Euro Ensemble
Image
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#490 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:44 pm

Highteeld wrote:Not to be outdone by forecast hour 51, either. HWRF 12z run is comically bad

https://i.imgur.com/83po0P8.png


For those lovers of the movie Spaceballs...

It's gone plaid! :lol:
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#491 Postby Highteeld » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:52 pm

Image
Man, the Philippines can't take a hit like that. No way. Not after what we saw with Haiyian. Calamity in the making
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#492 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:03 pm

Highteeld wrote:Not to be outdone by forecast hour 51, either. HWRF 12z run is comically bad

https://i.imgur.com/83po0P8.png


How often do you see 5 flags on a wind barb? :lol:

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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#493 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:16 pm

26W MANGKHUT 180912 1800 14.3N 132.5E WPAC 155 898
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#494 Postby TorSkk » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:22 pm

I'm suprised they raised it to 155 with SAB at 7.0
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#495 Postby Cunxi Huang » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:22 pm

Image
Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#496 Postby Highteeld » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:25 pm

Cunxi Huang wrote:http://76.167.74.185/kodexplorer/index.php?explorer/fileProxy&accessToken=02025r6hDv1azQofxz2Id5oZwozOpnC9oG3CvvJ_647xinJd1MNsgpYcALpZcygw6-H4grBqyg&path=%7BgroupPath%7D%3A1%2Fpictures%2F20180912.1709.gw1.36pct36h36v.26W.MANGKHUT.155kts.898mb.14.3N.132.5E.66pc.jpg
http://76.167.74.185/kodexplorer/index.php?explorer/fileProxy&accessToken=02025r6hDv1azQofxz2Id5oZwozOpnC9oG3CvvJ_647xinJd1MNsgpYcALpZcygw6-H4grBqyg&path=%7BgroupPath%7D%3A1%2Fpictures%2F20180912.1709.gw1.89hbt.26W.MANGKHUT.155kts.898mb.14.3N.132.5E.66pc.jpg
http://76.167.74.185/kodexplorer/index.php?explorer/fileProxy&accessToken=02025r6hDv1azQofxz2Id5oZwozOpnC9oG3CvvJ_647xinJd1MNsgpYcALpZcygw6-H4grBqyg&path=%7BgroupPath%7D%3A1%2Fpictures%2F20180912.1709.gw1.89pct89h89v.26W.MANGKHUT.155kts.898mb.14.3N.132.5E.66pc.jpg

That outer eyewall looks pretty wicked. 170 kts potential in about 36 hours if it is able to contract.
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#497 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:31 pm

Don’t think it’s 155kt-worthy yet. Did the JTWC just chocked in some HWRF?
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#498 Postby NotoSans » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:40 pm

Microwave imagery shows that the ERC is going on quite well right now.
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#499 Postby Cunxi Huang » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:44 pm

Image
Image

Yep.
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#500 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:01 pm

Mangkhut is one of those rare breed of TC that can still intensify despite undergoing an ERC
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