ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[tolakram]

Now the 0Z Euro, which is over a day behind.

[tigerz3030]

Can someone post the most recent UKMET model please? So far it looks like it’s been pretty close to accurate. I am in Valdosta Ga and wanted to see the track. Thanks in advance

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

UKMET

Similar in timing to everything but the Euro

[karenfromheaven]

Can someone post the most recent UKMET model please? So far it looks like it’s been pretty close to accurate. I am in Valdosta Ga and wanted to see the track. Thanks in advance

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_14.gif

[tigerz3030]

Thanks for posting. Looks like it will be bad here in Valdosta being on the east side and “possibly” right front quadrant. Time to prepare today and tomorrow

[ronjon]

Can someone post the most recent UKMET model please? So far it looks like it’s been pretty close to accurate. I am in Valdosta Ga and wanted to see the track. Thanks in advance

here you go:

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/florida/sea-level-pressure/20181011-0000z.html

[SEASON_CANCELED]

The big bend area is very well prepared for this. Most prepared more than anywhere on the planet.

They see this storms all the time, the building codes are incredible. I worry most about the brooksville - Inverness stretch. Tons of mobile homes and dirt roads.

[toad strangler]

The big bend area is very well prepared for this. Most prepared more than anywhere on the planet.

They see this storms all the time, the building codes are incredible. I worry most about the brooksville - Inverness stretch. Tons of mobile homes and dirt roads.

The Florida Building Code includes the entire state (Miami / Dade is a different animal) so no matter where you are, new construction is strictly monitored. It's the older communities and of course mobile homes that are at greatest risk.

[chaser1]

Can someone post the most recent UKMET model please? So far it looks like it’s been pretty close to accurate. I am in Valdosta Ga and wanted to see the track. Thanks in advance

UK appears to come in at about Carrabelle although seeing much detail on that map is arguably difficult. I personally find that track more reasonable then those further to the west. On the UK track, Valdosta would appear to get whacked pretty solidly. Keep in mind that peak winds will certainly drop following landfall. Still, at this point i'd anticipate hurricane conditions might extend that far inland.

[chaser1]

Horseshoe Beach would be nothing but a wasteland; fortunately Michael's track "should" remain far enough to its west to spare it's winds. Surge could still be a problem for them though

[Blow_Hard]

Can someone post the most recent UKMET model please? So far it looks like it’s been pretty close to accurate. I am in Valdosta Ga and wanted to see the track. Thanks in advance

UK appears to come in at about Carrabelle although seeing much detail on that map is arguably difficult. I personally find that track more reasonable then those further to the west. On the UK track, Valdosta would appear to get whacked pretty solidly. Keep in mind that peak winds will certainly drop following landfall. Still, at this point i'd anticipate hurricane conditions might extend that far inland.

I agree totally with you on the Track...that has been my thinking all along because of a couple things. #1 -- Climatology...I have lived here in the Panhandle long enough to have seen many, many TCs in this neck of the woods in October-November and they typically have ended up bending East because of approaching fronts and Michael is already just east of my location (Panama City) and IMHO I don't think it's going to end having much of a westerly component as far as track goes. You couple that with the influence of slight westerly shear and I think you end up with more of a Ukmet type track. My guess is around the Carrabelle to St. Marks area. As I said, this is just my opinion based on past experience and not a science based opinion.

[ronjon]

00z ECM ensembles all initialized too far west.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL14_2018100800_ECENS_0-120h_large.png

[NDG]

As long as their trustworthy IVCN model keeps showing a Cat 2 at landfall the official forecast intensity will stay as a Cat 2, unless it actually becomes a Cat 3 tomorrow. IMO.
But notice how the majority of the intensity models are now showing a Cat 2.

[yzerfan]

The big bend area is very well prepared for this. Most prepared more than anywhere on the planet.

They see this storms all the time, the building codes are incredible. I worry most about the brooksville - Inverness stretch. Tons of mobile homes and dirt roads.

The Florida Building Code includes the entire state (Miami / Dade is a different animal) so no matter where you are, new construction is strictly monitored. It's the older communities and of course mobile homes that are at greatest risk.

The problem isn't so much the building code itself but structure age, and in those inland areas there are a lot of trailers from before the HUD code (what governs manufactured home standards) got really strict for Florida and other coastal areas.

I'm glad we got our roof replaced this summer. And that the fella who built our house in 1982 apparently put hurricane clips in even though it wasn't required at that time.

[toad strangler]

The big bend area is very well prepared for this. Most prepared more than anywhere on the planet.

They see this storms all the time, the building codes are incredible. I worry most about the brooksville - Inverness stretch. Tons of mobile homes and dirt roads.

The Florida Building Code includes the entire state (Miami / Dade is a different animal) so no matter where you are, new construction is strictly monitored. It's the older communities and of course mobile homes that are at greatest risk.

The problem isn't so much the building code itself but structure age, and in those inland areas there are a lot of trailers from before the HUD code (what governs manufactured home standards) got really strict for Florida and other coastal areas.

I'm glad we got our roof replaced this summer. And that the fella who built our house in 1982 apparently put hurricane clips in even though it wasn't required at that time.

That's exactly what I said in my previous post. And 1983 was the Wild Wild West. Andrew changed everything in FL.

[ronjon]

06z NAM sharp hook to the NE into perry Florida. Yes I know its the NAM so....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100806&fh=6

[caneman]

I'm going with Perry down to Cedar Key. If it misses the tip of Appalachacola, I can see this happening. Basing it on watching these for many years at Indian Rocks Beach. June and October always has me on guard.

[caneman]

06z NAM sharp hook to the NE into perry Florida. Yes I know its the NAM so....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100806&fh=6

I've been saying Perry for awhile. We will see

[toad strangler]

Almost all the models showed a little tick NE before gaining an overall NNW movement. Everything is on schedule.