WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical
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1900hurricane
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WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
Well, that’s a thing. At least intensity verification will be fun to look at later.
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supercane4867
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
Mangkhut has officaly crashed the HWRF model. It stopped running at hour 33 when the 777mb was shown. Looks like we have the first victim in this typhoon
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
The eye has started to shrink somewhat, not sure if this will be the classic EWRC case of the visible eye becoming cloud-filled or demolished altogether. I recall Haima (which I have already mentioned many times in here:lol:) underwent successive EWRCs and ended up with a failed mega eyewall prior to landfall.
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
supercane4867 wrote:Mangkhut has officaly crashed the HWRF model. It stopped running at hour 33 when the 777mb was shown. Looks like we have the first victim in this typhoon
300knots plus sounds legit
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
Lol could that really happen? A supercomputer crashing due to an insanely bad modelled storm?
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ManilaTC
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
Landfall area shifted south again a bit.
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 13 September>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N14°30' (14.5°)
E131°25' (131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 560 km (300 NM)
SW 440 km (240 NM)
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 13 September>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N14°30' (14.5°)
E131°25' (131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 560 km (300 NM)
SW 440 km (240 NM)
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
Why does it not move WNW as the earlier forecasts?
latest PAGASA run still gunning for the northern tip
while JTWC shows far more south with 155 kts!!!
latest PAGASA run still gunning for the northern tip
while JTWC shows far more south with 155 kts!!!
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1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
Eyewall replacement is just about complete, with just the last remnants of inner eyewall remaining on visible imagery. Amazingly, the eye temp never dropped below 17ºC.
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
JTWC thinks this has already peaked, lowered to 145kts.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
Outer Eyewall is now taking over
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
http://api.meteopilipinas.gov.ph/tmp/d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e/radar/latest-mosaic-r-rain.gif?rand=502528054843
Looks like Aparri radar is under maintainance/ not functioning ATM.
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
One of the smoothest EWRCs I have ever seen.
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
NotoSans wrote:One of the smoothest EWRCs I have ever seen.
Probably next to Haiyan's EWRC, which I didn't notice at all until somebody pointed out that an EWRC actually did happen.
With Mangkhut, what's left to be seen if it's going to bounce back, or even surpass its previous peak strength.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
Can the environment support a full CDG ring?
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1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
mrbagyo wrote:Can the environment support a full CDG ring?
Based on surrounding sounding data, tropopause temps look like they're around -80ºC, so probably not quite, although it's possible the tropopause is a little colder right in the vicinity of the circulation. CMG looks very possible though.
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
supercane4867 wrote:Mangkhut has officaly crashed the HWRF model. It stopped running at hour 33 when the 777mb was shown. Looks like we have the first victim in this typhoon
The run does appear to have actually run to completion, which is surprising. Not sure what happened there.
EMC's HWRF page had (but has since removed) both the 18z and 12z run. I was trying to save the 18z intensity/track plot and it failed because the file was deleted. If anyone happens to have saved the graphic of the 18z run... let me know!
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
ERC was successful this time. Instead of hampering Mangkhut like it did to Haima, the ERC has given Mangkhut an opportunity to go bonkers. This would be a good chase for the chasers.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
kala wrote:supercane4867 wrote:Mangkhut has officaly crashed the HWRF model. It stopped running at hour 33 when the 777mb was shown. Looks like we have the first victim in this typhoon
The run does appear to have actually run to completion, which is surprising. Not sure what happened there.
EMC's HWRF page had (but has since removed) both the 18z and 12z run. I was trying to save the 18z intensity/track plot and it failed because the file was deleted. If anyone happens to have saved the graphic of the 18z run... let me know!
I just saw it on TT, I was going to ask on here if anyone saved it
. 775 mb...
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
No question the ERC is done, just needs to build the NW side a tad and we're all set for some more intensification.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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